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What if Raeder was less successful in manipulating Hitler and loses out on his share of the rearmament money (no plan Z). Basically what this means is no Bismarck, Tirpitz or really any new surface ships outside several new destroyers. Sub production is kept to OTL. Instead the extra resources spent mostly on the Luftwaffe, with some of the rest going to increase motorization of the Wehrmacht.
Now I don't have actual numbers of what was spent by 1939, but I am willing to be that with an increased Luftwaffe and significant increase in motorization of infantry formations, that the course of the war might be somewhat different. Would this make a Strategic Bomber fleet (however small) somewhat possible?
Sure, the Brits would of course not have to worry about German capital ships and this would go harder on the Japanese, but that does not really effect the Germans, as Sealion is now more implausible than ever. Perhaps this even helps, as if Sealion is completely unworkable, the Battle of Britain is stopped earlier or not even started at all. But if it does happen, a larger LW is possiblely better prepared to inflict greater damage on the Brits, especially if the extra money and resources allow for heavy bombers to be developed. Might this mean a reverse airwar over Britain, with the Germans fire bombing British cities, rather than OTL raids over Hamburg? Would perhaps this extra pressure be enough to crack British moral?
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