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An idea that occurred to me while discussing another PoD. What if the outcome of the Congress of Vienna is changed so that Prussia becomes the dominant power within united federal Germany and Austria the dominant power within united federal Italy and Russia gets almost all of Poland ?

Prussia shall get all of Rhineland/Westphalia, plus all of Saxony, plus a sizable land connection between the two halves of the Kingdom (the duchy of Brunswick, Hildesheim, Hesse-Kassel, Nassau). Hannover shall be compensated with western Mecklemburg.

Russia shall get Posen, Krakow and (northern) Galicia as well.

Austria shall get Lombardy-Venice, Parma, Modena, Lucca, Tuscany, Romagna, Marche, and Umbria. Sardinia shall be compensated by getting Genoa, Corsica, Sicily, and the French Riviera.

The king of Saxony shall be compensated by getting Alsace and Lorraine, which are joined with Luxemburg to form the Kingdom of Lorraine.

Netherlands are compensated by getting Flanders-Hainaut.

Prussia is made the head of the German Federation.

Austria is made the head of the Italian Federation.

Prussia and Austria should keep a rough balance of power across Europe, but Prussia should become the dominant power at least in northern Germany, whereas Austria may keep having prevailing influence in southern Germany.

In order to compensate prevailing Austrian influence in southern Germany as well as Italy, Prussia should be compensated by getting most of Hannover. Britain should be compensated by getting the throne of the United Netherlands in personal union. Dunno where and how the William of Orange could get a throne in compensation (possibly Greece, or maybe Egypt).

The PoD I have envisaged is manifold: Metternich dies soon after Napoleon surrenders in 1814, therefore Talleyrand is never allowed to play an influential role in the Congress and Austrian influence is significantly diminished. As a the influence of France at the congress result the Russian-Prussian plan to give Posen to Russia and Saxony to Prussia gets indecisive Austrian opposition and Austria is partially won over with promises of territorial gains in southern Germany and Italy. Britain and France maintain opposition, and the Congress stalemates. Then Napoleon returns and is able to inflict Wellington and the British-Dutch army a humiliating total defeat at Waterloo but is later vanquished by the Prussians with Russian support. The Austrians end up having a marginal role in the campaign. As a result, the influence and prestige of Prussia and Russia swell massively, whereas Britain and Austria are discredited, and the influence of France gets neglegible. The British government falls because of the humiliating defeat of Waterloo and a different Foreign minister takes over, more willing to cooperate with Prussian-Austrian plans and less willing to show leniency to France. Austrian idea of containtment through loose coalitions of satellites and exclaves of powers is totally discredited. It is decided to give France a rather harsh peace deal, to create a chain of strong states at the borders of France (Prussia, Savoy, Netherlands), and strong confederal systems in Germany and Italy. Since Metternich is dead, he does not oppose the creation of the federations. Since Protestant Prussia and Orthodox Russia lead the Congress, they do not have trouble cutting the Papal States down to Latium. The opposition to the implementation of the Russian-Prussian plans melts away.

The Congress awards Prussia with all of Saxony, plus all of Rhineland-Westphalia. Prussia claims a land connection between the two halves of its new territorial extension, and a couple one are created: the first by giving Prussia the territory of the Duchy of Brunswick and the old Bishopric of Hildesheim (Hannover is compensated by giving it western Mecklemburg), the second by giving Prussia the northern part of the Landgraviate of Hessen-Kassel, while the southern part is given to the Grand Duchy of Hesse, which cedes a strip of territory to Prussia to enlarge the connection.

Austria is given Lombardy, Venice, Parma, Modena, Lucca, Tuscany, Romagna, Marche, and Umbria.

Sardinia is given Genoa, Corsica, Sicily, and French Riviera.

Russia is given Posen, Krakow, and northern Galicia (up to Przemysl-Stanislau line).

Alsace, Lorraine, and Luxemburg are united to form the Kingdom of Lorraine.

Netherlands is given French Flanders.

The German Confederation and the Italian Confederation are created. They are meant to make them strong, functional confederal systems with a federal army and taxation. The presidency of the Italian Confederation is given to Austria. About the presidency of the German Confederation, however, a strong rivalry develops between Austria and Prussia, no state willing to acknowledge the supremacy of the other. Eventually a compromise is found by establishing a dual presidency, with Prussia and Austria having the leadership on German states north and south of the Main River.

However, this would make Austria dominant in Italy as well as southern Germany, Prussia, supported by Russia, complains. Eventually a solution is found by giving Hannover and Nassau to Prussia, while Britain is given a personal union with United Netherlands. The territory of Hannover west of the Weser is given to Oldenburg, while Mecklemburg is returned its old territory.
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