Different Austro Hungarian Empire

With a POD after 1870 have Austro - Hungary opt not to enter into the Dual Alliance with Germany in 1879. Now without Austro - Hungary as an ally of Germany, how does the alliance system develop?
 
I'd guess that Germany would want to become closer to Russia, and thus support it in its Balkan interests and try to keep it unfirendly with France. It would actually be much more beneficial for Germany, as that eliminates the possibility of a two front war, and even if the French convinced the Austrians to go to war with Germany against them, they would be quickly aniquilated by the Russo-German armies.
 
It is an interesting situation for all involved, as it frees up Germany to concentrate against France and, provides a huge supply of manpower to augment her Army. Russia ITTL will conceivably have a smaller Baltic sea fleet with a German alliance, perhaps a Black Sea Fleet at a similar size, and a far larger larger Pacific Fleet. How Russia itself changes with a German ally is very interesting.

AH is in a horrible position threatened by Germany and Russia, but with France and possibly the Royal Navy to support her in the Adriatic means that she is free to focus her efforts on the Army. The impact of the French loans that flowed to Russia IOTL, that would now flow to AH could conceivably spur further development.
 
I had actually thought about this subject a few days ago, tied into my planned TL for a Third French Restoration. A monarchist/Legitimist France and Austria-Hungary are likely to end up as allies, a revival of the old Franco-Austrian alliance. In such a scenario Italy is likely to ally with the Germans, as neither Vienna or Paris are going to be friends with Rome at this point. Russia would be a wild card: at this point the Russians would want a free hand in the Balkans, something that neither alliance would be keen on seeing. So for the time being Russia's likely to remain aloof , not unlike Britain.
 
I had actually thought about this subject a few days ago, tied into my planned TL for a Third French Restoration. A monarchist/Legitimist France and Austria-Hungary are likely to end up as allies, a revival of the old Franco-Austrian alliance. In such a scenario Italy is likely to ally with the Germans, as neither Vienna or Paris are going to be friends with Rome at this point. Russia would be a wild card: at this point the Russians would want a free hand in the Balkans, something that neither alliance would be keen on seeing. So for the time being Russia's likely to remain aloof , not unlike Britain.

Germany couldn't care less about Russia expanding in the Balkans in the 1870s, Bismarck was moderately happy to let them to IOTL and the main German objections to that stemmed from their alliances with Austria, which was considered a cornerstone of German security (but, for a longtime, compatible with a Russian alliance). Lacking an Austrian ally, Germany would be happy to let Russia expand at Ottoman expense (for a price). Indeed, in this context Russia and Italy share enmity with Austria and are therefore natural allies, and both have strong incentives to a partnership with Berlin.
With hostile Austria, Germany has no conduit to the Balkans/Middle East and no reason to oppose Russia there.
This however would bring Germany (and Italy) on a potential collision course with Britain in addition to France, which Italy in particular would want to avoid.
The alignment would be:
"Entente": France+Austria(+Britain? and Japan perhaps? Likely the Ottomans too)
versus
"Triple Alliance": Germany+Russia+Italy(+Balkan states?)

In case of war, this is horribly lopsided in the continent in Alliance's favor, and, if Britain is onside, even more clearly lopsided in the Entente's favor on the seas and in most colonial theaters.
However, Austria is predictably dead meat in short order and Germany is able to focus West, with easily grim forecasts for the French.
This is part of why this particular constellation of alliances never occurred: Austria was fully aware that it amounted to its destruction (which nobody particularly wanted).
 
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