BooNZ

Banned
Methinks you are falling victim to the benefit of hindsight and viewing the situation solely in the abstract, rather than considering what the situation on the practical situation on the ground at the time. Sure, if you're running the country like in a 4X game, with the enemy being a predictable AI, your control neigh absolute, and the benefit of full information than its easy to adopt the "best" decsision, but real life dosen't work that way.
Me thinks you are being excessively judgy. The OP is simply adding their own flavour to a vanilla scenario, where A-H (almost) immediately acts to avenge the assassination of the heir to the A-H empire. The flavouring might not be to everyone's taste, but the underlying scenario has been contemplated in mainstream publications such as Clarke's Sleepwalkers. Most of us do not not need crystal balls - we instead refer to books.

First, you do kind of need the Hungarians to co-operate; 1/3 of your army is under Budapest's command, after all, as well as the logistical system (both in infastructure and civilian supply) in your main areas of operation. Sure, we know with the benefit of hindsight that you'd eventually get their approval (Which occured partially because the opposition felt like it got a fair shot and terms were negotiated; they're likely to feel put upon if the Imperial government doesn't consult them and tries to simply to "pull rank" with an immediate declaration of war... over the assasination of a man who wasen't shy about expressing his disdain for the Magyars.) You can't just change the mobalization plans on a dime; its a highly complex process that's the result of years of setting up pre-prepared railway schedules, unit mustering and transport locations, supply shipments, ect. on a precise and industrial scale, and the offical A-H warplans don't allow for a particularly swift transport of troops especially since you'd need time for the men to fill out the units, ect.
I scarcely think you need a crystal ball to predict the Magyars would ultimately choose to mobilise and defend themselves, rather than face occupation by Cossack forces. The plight of occupied territories during the Balkan wars would have been fresh in everyone's minds.

As far as mobilization plans, the A-H original mobilization plan included additional forces to face the Serbs (I recall 2 armies per OP), but was changed mid-way through, which screwed up the OTL A-H deployment. So given the circumstances, the OP's scenario would avoid the OTL disruption and logically result in the smoother than OTL deployment of A-H forces in greater numbers.

Russia of course can act. They can start mobalization (As they did historically) to prepare for an assult against Galicia. Sure, you can SAY they won't act without consulting the French... but what if they do? (As they certainly have the capability to do; there's no gurantee that Serbia will capitulate within 6 weeks).
OTL the Russians commenced thier pre-mobilisation/ mobilisation around 25 July 1914, after consultation between the French and Russian leadership had concluded.

Now you have a prepared army stormy across your poorly defended border, occupying some of your best agricultural land and main source of petrolium and throwing off mobalization in the area... and you have nothing more than some garrisons standing between them and the passes into the Hungarian plains. Any attempt to throw together an army to stop them is going to be at least partially slapdash and less effective than defending the border based on pre-war planning, and dosen't have a good chance to succeed based on pre-war assumptions on the nature of warfare (Being at least somewhat mobile)... and if they get into the Imperial core you can say goodbye to your country.

If the Russian chose to continue to mobilise, why do you believe the balance of the A-H military would not match those preparations? OTL A-H did not "defend the border", instead exhausting themselves attempting to seize the initiative. If a greater proportion of the A-H military are already commiteed to the Serbian front, then the A-H might be forced to adopt a more conservative posture. With the benefit of hindsight, we know if A-H was immediatley forced onto the defensive, it would have performed better than OTL (a rather low bar). With the benefit of hindsight we also know the realities of logistics mean the Russians would struggle to get through to the Hungarian plains no matter how feable the defenders.

Again, you don't have the benefit of 20/20 hindsight or a crystal ball. There's also a bit of hypocrisy here: assuming Germany is going to back Austria with a blank cheque without pre-consultation but saying that France won't give a fig without extensive talks with Russia first.
Again instead we have history books, which do not reconcile with your understanding of events. The Maygars will be motivated by self interest to mobilise if threatened by a Russian mobilisation, the immediate relations with the Austrians are scarcely relevent. The Germans would be forced to respond in kind to any Russian mobilisation, irresepctive of its relationship with A-H. Similarly a French mobilisation will be in response to the German mobilisation, irrespective of commitements to Russia.

You should understand the French general election in early 1914 resulted in Socialist parties gaining an overall majority. Those parties were advocating a reexamination of French commitments to Russia and a reconciliation with Germany. In the OTL high level discussions between France and Russia (in Russia), Poincare (French President) purportedly encouraged Russian support of Serbia (i.e. mobilisation etc). I suspect Poincare would have greater oversight within France and therefore not have been able to openly encourage Russian action.

The examination of the facts is not hipocrisy. In the same vein, offering your uninformed opinion is not very generous.

The Serbians can stage a suitable defense... we know this from our own history.
If you ignore the POD which results in Serbia facing forces of superior numbers and quality, sure...

Sure, they can't hold forever, but they just need to avoid surrender long enough for Big Brother Russia to bash the Habsburgs from the side. You're making alot of assumptions that things are going to play out JUST so, but in practical terms the Habsburg government can't know that. If something goes wrong with your predictions; if Germany blinks from you jumping off the cliff, if the Serbs hold on longer than you expect, if the Russians do decide to back Serbia quickly, if the French do decide to honor their alliance quickly, if international opinion dosen't spin off in their favor as much as they predict, if the Hungarians prove less cooperative... than you've just bet the farm and lost.
As outlined above, Russian mobilisation was heavily influenced by high level discussions between France and Russia. It has been said OTL the Serbs were ready to accept the A-H ultimatum, until they received thier own blank check from Russia/France. If the Serbs were seriously contemplating accepting the ultimatum OTL, then I would expect them to seriously consider surrendering against overwhelming forces, if no offer of solidarity/ support was forthcoming on a timely basis.
 
Thank you, @BooNZ , you worded my thoughts much better, than I could.

Hopefully, since we are slowly geting past the convesation regarding the probability of the POD, we can begin to talk also about the possible consequences and future possibilities!
What are your thoughts regarding that?
 
So are the Austrian forces attacking are approximately the OTL start of war forces plus the 2nd army sent to Galacia but remaining here in this scenario????

If the Austrians have a free hand. I would anticipate with the 2nd Army the Austrians can occupy Belgrade, but would bog down south of the city. Austria needs a quick victory to achieve what she wants but won't get it.) The Austrians seem to struggle to outright win in this theater OTL, even in late 1915, Before the Bulgarian entry ended things.

After struggling the Austrians can decide to mobilize more and try to push further south or settle for what they have taken.

But the Serbians will get sympathy just for surviving. Any pauses will be embarrassing for Austria. The great powers will call for an international conference.

Austria should take the conference then , because after a while your back to OTL, the Russians start to threaten, mobilize, Germany reacts....

So it could be a boring OTL sort of thing.

But where it could get interesting, if actual shooting war is going on earlier, perhaps the European diplomacy gets focused and smarter, less of the lazy hazy summer time sleep walking toward disaster thing that either accidentally or on purpose happened OTL.

OTL, Armenia and Kurdistan were restive at this time, might have been the next diplomatic crisis point if the Austrian assassination was avoided somehow, perhaps German and Russia work out some deal, "Austria gets a free hand in Serbia", "Russia gets another slice of Armenia".

OR Britain wanting to avoid a European multi power war and having little interest in Serbia says to Germany, if you make Austria settle this right now and stop, we will allow you to shake down Portugal and start the split up of her colonial empire. The task of improving these colonial places keeps Germany busy for years with "her place in the sun"
 
So are the Austrian forces attacking are approximately the OTL start of war forces plus the 2nd army sent to Galacia but remaining here in this scenario????
Yeah, more or less.
If the Austrians have a free hand. I would anticipate with the 2nd Army the Austrians can occupy Belgrade, but would bog down south of the city. Austria needs a quick victory to achieve what she wants but won't get it.) The Austrians seem to struggle to outright win in this theater OTL, even in late 1915, Before the Bulgarian entry ended things.
I'm not sure about this. The Austro-Hungarian strategy was to bog down as many Serb troops as possible in the North with the 2nd army, while the other two armies would invade from Bosnia and Hercegovina. There are two possible sceniarios:
1st: The Serbs take the bait and fight the 2nd army. In this sceniario, the other two armies can break rather smoothly into Serbia, trapping the overwhelming majority of the Serb army between two fires from North and South.
2nd: The Serbs recognise the danger and withdraw to avoid encirclement. Their retreat would likely draw back their frontline to Nìs and Northern Kosovo, while the Dual Monarchy would occupy everything North to that. The Serbs from this point could try to win as much time for themselves as possible, since every single day passing would draw closer the intervention of other Great Powers.

The Austro-Hungarians would try to force the Serbs to a decisive battle, which they will either be able to achieve or not. There are also three possible sceniarios here:
1st: The Austrians decisively defeat the Serb army in battle, before the other Great Powers could intervene(likely). This sceniario is quite the simple, the Serbs are defeated, they surrender. Serbia is at the mercy of the Dual Monarchy.
2nd: The Austro-Hungarians couldn't force the Serbs to a decisive battle before outter intervention(also likely). A Great Power congress is likely to take place, where Austria-Hungary could still negotiate from the position of strenght.
3rd: The Austro-Hungarians suffer a defeat from the Serbian army(less likely). The congress is a bit less likely to take place, the Austro-Hungarians would try to wash down the shame by continuing the war and eventually decisively defeating the Serbs. In this sceniario, war with Russia is almost certain. World War.
OR Britain wanting to avoid a European multi power war and having little interest in Serbia says to Germany, if you make Austria settle this right now and stop, we will allow you to shake down Portugal and start the split up of her colonial empire. The task of improving these colonial places keeps Germany busy for years with "her place in the sun"
It was Germany, who OTL wanted to escalate things, while the Austro-Hungarians wanted to localise the war. That's why it's important to leave them out as much as possible ITTL.
 
  1. [QUOTE="BooNZ, post: 17361181, member: 26282]Snip[/QUOTE]What Magyars? Barely 50% of Hungarian kingdom population were Magyars. It’s like calling population of USSR Russians. :D
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
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Monthly Donor
Romania could participate as well.

What did Romania want from Serbia?

the Serbs were seriously contemplating accepting the ultimatum OTL,

They were?

One additional factor, if Austria is either trapping the Serb forces in the north or forcing the Serbs to significantly retreat, and there is as yet not clear commitment of Russian belligerency, might Bulgaria take this as the signal to attack Macedonia?

What would Austria take from Serbia when its defeats them or the Serbs surrender:

a) Bragging rights of acknowledged Austrian victory?
b) Bragging rights plus the opportunity to investigate and haul away suspects?
c) In kind reparations/"contributions" from Serbia? Basically looting moveable property
e) Restoration of any living Obrenovic claimant to the throne, or selection of some non-Karageorgovich King?
f) Annexation of the Sanjak of Novi Pazar to Austria-Hungary?
g) Annexation of Novi Pazar for A-H, Bulgaria gets Macedonia, Albania gets Kosovo
h) All the above plus other minor annexations?

The Austro-Hungarians have contradictory desires, they want to crush Serbia, demonstrate they can inflict punishment and cripple Serbia's ability to be a threat. On the other hand, they have no desire to upset their domestic balances by absorbing more hostile minorities. How does A-H resolve that tension?

Which of a) through h) could the European powers tolerate? And where would it get to the point that Serbia now has the sympathy and A-H has lost it?

OTL, Armenia and Kurdistan were restive at this time, might have been the next diplomatic crisis point if the Austrian assassination was avoided somehow, perhaps German and Russia work out some deal, "Austria gets a free hand in Serbia", "Russia gets another slice of Armenia".

An interesting alternative concept.

---Heck, even if the Russians mobilize and events converge within OTL to launch WWI and the Schlieffen Plan, it is not boring, the differences caused by the probable earlier (1914) defeat of Serbia and Austria-Hungary standing on the offensive vis-a-vis Russia in and of themselves are interesting.
 

BooNZ

Banned
Thank you, @BooNZ , you worded my thoughts much better, than I could.
You were probably being too polite.

Hopefully, since we are slowly geting past the convesation regarding the probability of the POD, we can begin to talk also about the possible consequences and future possibilities!What are your thoughts regarding that?
In my opinion, immediate A-H belligerence (independent of Germany) differs from OTL in the following ways:
- there remains residual sympathy for A-H in the international community, most significantly in Britain;
- there is less opportunity for A-H planning to leak to the outside world via Germany;
- there is less opportunity for France and Russia to co-ordinate their support for Serbia;
- there is less opportunity for France and Russia to communicate their support to Serbia; and
- there is an opportunity for Britain and Germany to work together to contain the conflict.

Further, those leading foreign policy for Britain (Grey) and France (Poincare) were pro-intervention, despite the majority of decision makers in those nations being against war. If A-H plunges into war immediately, then doves will be involved in decision making earlier i.e. instead of gradually bringing the pot to a boil, the hawks will have to attempt to get frogs to jump into boiling water.

In my opinion, Russia would not go beyond pre-mobilization without French encouragement and in this scenario, France, Britain and Germany would instead be seeking to restrain Russia. The most likely response from Serbia is to either surrender or withdraw into the interior, so no embarrassing heroics for A-H to deal with. I think A-H would likely receive an ultimatum from Britain, Germany and France to halt at Belgrade or similar, something the Magyars would be supporting.

A-H halts at Belgrade, but demand requirements substantially similar to the OTL ultimatum be fulfilled, which likely embarrasses Serbia and decapitates the Black Hand, but does not much resolve the A-H residual Serbian problems. However, with a wider war averted, A-H can complete its military modernization and properly train/ indoctrinate its expanded ranks, making it far more formidable in any future conflict.

Such a Balkan crisis would cement British concerns regarding Russian belligerence. Even France is likely to declare Russian adventurism in the Balkans is beyond the scope of the Franco-Russian alliance. IMHO
What Magyars? Barely 50% of Hungarian kingdom population were Magyars. It’s like calling population of USSR Russians. :D
The Magyars would be the ones making the decisions, not unlike the Russians in the Soviet Union I guess.

They were?
According to Christopher Clarke in Sleepwalkers.

One additional factor, if Austria is either trapping the Serb forces in the north or forcing the Serbs to significantly retreat, and there is as yet not clear commitment of Russian belligerency, might Bulgaria take this as the signal to attack Macedonia?
It's possible, but I think its a narrow window between when it looks safe for Bulgaria to act and when the international community closes down the adventure altogether.
What would Austria take from Serbia when its defeats them or the Serbs surrender:

a) Bragging rights of acknowledged Austrian victory?
b) Bragging rights plus the opportunity to investigate and haul away suspects?
c) In kind reparations/"contributions" from Serbia? Basically looting moveable property
e) Restoration of any living Obrenovic claimant to the throne, or selection of some non-Karageorgovich King?
f) Annexation of the Sanjak of Novi Pazar to Austria-Hungary?
g) Annexation of Novi Pazar for A-H, Bulgaria gets Macedonia, Albania gets Kosovo
h) All the above plus other minor annexations?
Because I assume an A-H halt at Belgrade scenario; a, b and a bit of c.
 
What did Romania want from Serbia?
The Romanians had a soft claim on the region of Braničevo, because of Romanian minorities living there. Even if they wouldn't had any claims, they wouldn't to be left out from the partition of Serbia, if it comes to that.
One additional factor, if Austria is either trapping the Serb forces in the north or forcing the Serbs to significantly retreat, and there is as yet not clear commitment of Russian belligerency, might Bulgaria take this as the signal to attack Macedonia?
There's a possibility for that, it depends on when comes the international intervention.
What would Austria take from Serbia when its defeats them or the Serbs surrender:

a) Bragging rights of acknowledged Austrian victory?
b) Bragging rights plus the opportunity to investigate and haul away suspects?
c) In kind reparations/"contributions" from Serbia? Basically looting moveable property
e) Restoration of any living Obrenovic claimant to the throne, or selection of some non-Karageorgovich King?
f) Annexation of the Sanjak of Novi Pazar to Austria-Hungary?
g) Annexation of Novi Pazar for A-H, Bulgaria gets Macedonia, Albania gets Kosovo
h) All the above plus other minor annexations?
In the most likely sceniario a) b) and c), and also some minor border adjustments, like islands on the Danube near the Iron Gate. The e) is within the reach of possibilities as well.
The Austro-Hungarians have contradictory desires, they want to crush Serbia, demonstrate they can inflict punishment and cripple Serbia's ability to be a threat. On the other hand, they have no desire to upset their domestic balances by absorbing more hostile minorities. How does A-H resolve that tension?
They would resolve it by forcing as much money out of Serbia as war reparations as possible. If not else, the lack of financement will cripple the Serbian army, making it a no-threat. I can also see atleast the reversal of Serb gains from the 2nd Balkan War, but if Bulgaria takes a more active role and actually invades Serbia, then the Serbs losing all of Macedonia is likely too.
Which of a) through h) could the European powers tolerate? And where would it get to the point that Serbia now has the sympathy and A-H has lost it?
What I wrote above. Austria-Hungary should be able to force it down the throat of the international community. Russia would protest with all it could, but noone would really stand behind them imo. The Germans would naturally back their ally. The French have no interests on the Balkans and have no confrontation with the Austro-Hungarians anywhere else either. Meanwhile, I can see the British even lightly backing the Dual Monarchy. It's not within their interests to let the Russians dominate the Balkans either. Keeping the Russians far from the Straits is still a relevant British interest.
An interesting alternative concept.

---Heck, even if the Russians mobilize and events converge within OTL to launch WWI and the Schlieffen Plan, it is not boring, the differences caused by the probable earlier (1914) defeat of Serbia and Austria-Hungary standing on the offensive vis-a-vis Russia in and of themselves are interesting.
Indeed.
You were probably being too polite.
Thanks, but it's more like my lacking skill to formulate texts, not politeness.
In my opinion, immediate A-H belligerence (independent of Germany) differs from OTL in the following ways:
- there remains residual sympathy for A-H in the international community, most significantly in Britain;
- there is less opportunity for A-H planning to leak to the outside world via Germany;
- there is less opportunity for France and Russia to co-ordinate their support for Serbia;
- there is less opportunity for France and Russia to communicate their support to Serbia; and
- there is an opportunity for Britain and Germany to work together to contain the conflict.
Agreed. I don't know though, how much the Germans would be partners to the Brits to try to contain the conflict. The Germans would rather try to win time for the Austro-Hungarians to finish their campaign first. Imo.

As a sidenote, it was very shocking for me, when I first read about how damaging for Austria-Hungary the German communications with the Italians were.
Further, those leading foreign policy for Britain (Grey) and France (Poincare) were pro-intervention, despite the majority of decision makers in those nations being against war. If A-H plunges into war immediately, then doves will be involved in decision making earlier i.e. instead of gradually bringing the pot to a boil, the hawks will have to attempt to get frogs to jump into boiling water.
Great simile. Agreed.
A-H halts at Belgrade, but demand requirements substantially similar to the OTL ultimatum be fulfilled, which likely embarrasses Serbia and decapitates the Black Hand, but does not much resolve the A-H residual Serbian problems. However, with a wider war averted, A-H can complete its military modernization and properly train/ indoctrinate its expanded ranks, making it far more formidable in any future conflict.
The OTL ultimatum didn't actually demand much more than the cooperation of the Serb police forces with Austro-Hungarian elements within Serbia. Now, it's a completely new situation. The Austro-Hungarian police and even military police forces will lead the investigation within Serbia. This is more than humiliation, the entire Serbian intelligence agency will be wiped out as soon as traces are found, which lead to Dimitrievic, the head of said organisation and also one of the leaders of the Narodna Obradna, the "mother-organisation" of the Black Hand. As I earlier said, Serbia will also have to pay large sums of money. All of these together will cripple Serbia internationally for years.

The Serbs of the Dual Monarchy on the other hand just lost their biggest prop, they won't pose any problem for a while.
In my opinion, Russia would not go beyond pre-mobilization without French encouragement and in this scenario, France, Britain and Germany would instead be seeking to restrain Russia. The most likely response from Serbia is to either surrender or withdraw into the interior, so no embarrassing heroics for A-H to deal with. I think A-H would likely receive an ultimatum from Britain, Germany and France to halt at Belgrade or similar, something the Magyars would be supporting.
In mind with my earlier comments, I agree.
Such a Balkan crisis would cement British concerns regarding Russian belligerence. Even France is likely to declare Russian adventurism in the Balkans is beyond the scope of the Franco-Russian alliance. IMHO
Now, that's something interesting. A crack in the Entente alliance system, which the Germans wanted to achieve during the Moroccan Crises. It is now there, and it's solely the merit of Austria-Hungary. It whould put Austria-Hungary's international importance into a whole new perspective!
 
What did Romania want from Serbia?

Normally nothing. A-H might be able to persuade it to annex a slice of eastern Serbia as a divide-and-conquer strategy...but only after the fighting's already done.

They were?

No. Serbia never contemplated accepting points #5-#6 of the ultimatum. The OTL response, which was formed after extremely discouraging messages from Russia, was the closest it could get. (Hinley, Wilson - Decisions for War, Chapter 3)
What would Austria take from Serbia when its defeats them or the Serbs surrender:

a) Bragging rights of acknowledged Austrian victory?
b) Bragging rights plus the opportunity to investigate and haul away suspects?
c) In kind reparations/"contributions" from Serbia? Basically looting moveable property
e) Restoration of any living Obrenovic claimant to the throne, or selection of some non-Karageorgovich King?
f) Annexation of the Sanjak of Novi Pazar to Austria-Hungary?
g) Annexation of Novi Pazar for A-H, Bulgaria gets Macedonia, Albania gets Kosovo
h) All the above plus other minor annexations?

The Austro-Hungarians have contradictory desires, they want to crush Serbia, demonstrate they can inflict punishment and cripple Serbia's ability to be a threat. On the other hand, they have no desire to upset their domestic balances by absorbing more hostile minorities. How does A-H resolve that tension?

Which of a) through h) could the European powers tolerate? And where would it get to the point that Serbia now has the sympathy and A-H has lost it?

Any of the above is possible. Except maybe the transfer of Kosovo to Albania: in 1914, Albania was still in a state of anarchy and there was no functional government around to receive the territory.
However, European powers would have trouble tolerating anything except a), b) and c). Changing the dynasty would be especially hard, both due to international opposition and the lack of alternate candidates.
In general, whatever sympathy there was for Austria would rapidly decline after the start of the invasion. And pretty much disappear once Europe starts hearing rumours of Austria's post-war plans; and of the nature of Austria's occupation.
 
Normally nothing. A-H might be able to persuade it to annex a slice of eastern Serbia as a divide-and-conquer strategy...but only after the fighting's already done.
Indeed.
No. Serbia never contemplated accepting points #5-#6 of the ultimatum. The OTL response, which was formed after extremely discouraging messages from Russia, was the closest it could get. (Hinley, Wilson - Decisions for War, Chapter 3)
Suddenly I can't remember the fifth point, but the sixth was misinterpreted by the Serbs on purpose. It demanded the involvement of Austro-Hungarian organs within Serbia in the investigation, but the Serbs claimed it to be a demand of Austr-Hungarian police forces investigate within Serbia instead of the Serb ones. It was to be expected though, since the ultimatum was worded in such fashion, that it virtually begged to be misinterpreted, and it was done on purpose. So the Serbs could have accepted the 6th point, imo.
Changing the dynasty would be especially hard, both due to international opposition and the lack of alternate candidates.
The Karageorgovichs didn't have many dynastic ties to other European royal houses though. Also their legitimacy could also be easily questioned, because of the circumstances of how the family got the throne in the first place. The Austro-Hungarians did not view the change of dynasty within Serbia as a difficult task either, even before the war. The lack of obvious candidates still makes this question a bit more problematic.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
Indeed.

Suddenly I can't remember the fifth point, but the sixth was misinterpreted by the Serbs on purpose. It demanded the involvement of Austro-Hungarian organs within Serbia in the investigation, but the Serbs claimed it to be a demand of Austr-Hungarian police forces investigate within Serbia instead of the Serb ones. It was to be expected though, since the ultimatum was worded in such fashion, that it virtually begged to be misinterpreted, and it was done on purpose. So the Serbs could have accepted the 6th point, imo.

The Karageorgovichs didn't have many dynastic ties to other European royal houses though. Also their legitimacy could also be easily questioned, because of the circumstances of how the family got the throne in the first place. The Austro-Hungarians did not view the change of dynasty within Serbia as a difficult task either, even before the war. The lack of obvious candidates still makes this question a bit more problematic.

Well, A-H eventually did defeat Serbia, with German and Bulgarian help. What did was the occupation policy of A-H, were any territorial changes imposed for the duration of the occupation?
 
Well, A-H eventually did defeat Serbia, with German and Bulgarian help. What did was the occupation policy of A-H, were any territorial changes imposed for the duration of the occupation?
A-H didn't annex anything, but Bulgaria annexed Macedonia and everything East to the Morava river, during the war.
 
Suddenly I can't remember the fifth point, but the sixth was misinterpreted by the Serbs on purpose. It demanded the involvement of Austro-Hungarian organs within Serbia in the investigation, but the Serbs claimed it to be a demand of Austr-Hungarian police forces investigate within Serbia instead of the Serb ones. It was to be expected though, since the ultimatum was worded in such fashion, that it virtually begged to be misinterpreted, and it was done on purpose. So the Serbs could have accepted the 6th point, imo.

While this is possible, I have trouble believing the points were misinterpreted, especially not misinterpreted on purpose. The Austro-Hungarian government did not clarify to what degree they meant to extend the jurisdiction of Austro-Hungarian organs into Serbia; only after declaring war did Vienna issue a questionable retroactive explanation.

#5 and #6 were basically a package deal; requesting that A-H organs participate in the "suppression" of "subversive movements" in Serbia, including (but not limited to) the investigation about Sarajevo. Serbia requested clarification on #5 and rejected #6.
The Karageorgovichs didn't have many dynastic ties to other European royal houses though. Also their legitimacy could also be easily questioned, because of the circumstances of how the family got the throne in the first place. The Austro-Hungarians did not view the change of dynasty within Serbia as a difficult task either, even before the war. The lack of obvious candidates still makes this question a bit more problematic.

The Karageorgevich dynasty only had dynastic ties with Russia and Italy (and Montenegro, but...yeah), so that's only a limited problem. However, an attempt to depose the Karageorgevich would mostly be opposed on general principle, not for dynastic ties; the international community would see it as a dangerous precedent, and as something beyond the accepted scope of Austria-Hungary's intervention.

These problems would not be insurmountable on their own; but Vienna's inability to present a good alternate candidate for the Serbian throne (or even a moderately bad alternate candidate) makes it extremely complicated. In OTL, Vienna couldn't come up with anyone until 1918, when they tried to push for Archduke Maximilian (brother of Karl) as the new King of Serbia. But it quickly became clear that he's not a viable candidate, either.
 
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