BooNZ
Banned
Me thinks you are being excessively judgy. The OP is simply adding their own flavour to a vanilla scenario, where A-H (almost) immediately acts to avenge the assassination of the heir to the A-H empire. The flavouring might not be to everyone's taste, but the underlying scenario has been contemplated in mainstream publications such as Clarke's Sleepwalkers. Most of us do not not need crystal balls - we instead refer to books.Methinks you are falling victim to the benefit of hindsight and viewing the situation solely in the abstract, rather than considering what the situation on the practical situation on the ground at the time. Sure, if you're running the country like in a 4X game, with the enemy being a predictable AI, your control neigh absolute, and the benefit of full information than its easy to adopt the "best" decsision, but real life dosen't work that way.
I scarcely think you need a crystal ball to predict the Magyars would ultimately choose to mobilise and defend themselves, rather than face occupation by Cossack forces. The plight of occupied territories during the Balkan wars would have been fresh in everyone's minds.First, you do kind of need the Hungarians to co-operate; 1/3 of your army is under Budapest's command, after all, as well as the logistical system (both in infastructure and civilian supply) in your main areas of operation. Sure, we know with the benefit of hindsight that you'd eventually get their approval (Which occured partially because the opposition felt like it got a fair shot and terms were negotiated; they're likely to feel put upon if the Imperial government doesn't consult them and tries to simply to "pull rank" with an immediate declaration of war... over the assasination of a man who wasen't shy about expressing his disdain for the Magyars.) You can't just change the mobalization plans on a dime; its a highly complex process that's the result of years of setting up pre-prepared railway schedules, unit mustering and transport locations, supply shipments, ect. on a precise and industrial scale, and the offical A-H warplans don't allow for a particularly swift transport of troops especially since you'd need time for the men to fill out the units, ect.
As far as mobilization plans, the A-H original mobilization plan included additional forces to face the Serbs (I recall 2 armies per OP), but was changed mid-way through, which screwed up the OTL A-H deployment. So given the circumstances, the OP's scenario would avoid the OTL disruption and logically result in the smoother than OTL deployment of A-H forces in greater numbers.
OTL the Russians commenced thier pre-mobilisation/ mobilisation around 25 July 1914, after consultation between the French and Russian leadership had concluded.Russia of course can act. They can start mobalization (As they did historically) to prepare for an assult against Galicia. Sure, you can SAY they won't act without consulting the French... but what if they do? (As they certainly have the capability to do; there's no gurantee that Serbia will capitulate within 6 weeks).
Now you have a prepared army stormy across your poorly defended border, occupying some of your best agricultural land and main source of petrolium and throwing off mobalization in the area... and you have nothing more than some garrisons standing between them and the passes into the Hungarian plains. Any attempt to throw together an army to stop them is going to be at least partially slapdash and less effective than defending the border based on pre-war planning, and dosen't have a good chance to succeed based on pre-war assumptions on the nature of warfare (Being at least somewhat mobile)... and if they get into the Imperial core you can say goodbye to your country.
If the Russian chose to continue to mobilise, why do you believe the balance of the A-H military would not match those preparations? OTL A-H did not "defend the border", instead exhausting themselves attempting to seize the initiative. If a greater proportion of the A-H military are already commiteed to the Serbian front, then the A-H might be forced to adopt a more conservative posture. With the benefit of hindsight, we know if A-H was immediatley forced onto the defensive, it would have performed better than OTL (a rather low bar). With the benefit of hindsight we also know the realities of logistics mean the Russians would struggle to get through to the Hungarian plains no matter how feable the defenders.
Again instead we have history books, which do not reconcile with your understanding of events. The Maygars will be motivated by self interest to mobilise if threatened by a Russian mobilisation, the immediate relations with the Austrians are scarcely relevent. The Germans would be forced to respond in kind to any Russian mobilisation, irresepctive of its relationship with A-H. Similarly a French mobilisation will be in response to the German mobilisation, irrespective of commitements to Russia.Again, you don't have the benefit of 20/20 hindsight or a crystal ball. There's also a bit of hypocrisy here: assuming Germany is going to back Austria with a blank cheque without pre-consultation but saying that France won't give a fig without extensive talks with Russia first.
You should understand the French general election in early 1914 resulted in Socialist parties gaining an overall majority. Those parties were advocating a reexamination of French commitments to Russia and a reconciliation with Germany. In the OTL high level discussions between France and Russia (in Russia), Poincare (French President) purportedly encouraged Russian support of Serbia (i.e. mobilisation etc). I suspect Poincare would have greater oversight within France and therefore not have been able to openly encourage Russian action.
The examination of the facts is not hipocrisy. In the same vein, offering your uninformed opinion is not very generous.
If you ignore the POD which results in Serbia facing forces of superior numbers and quality, sure...The Serbians can stage a suitable defense... we know this from our own history.
As outlined above, Russian mobilisation was heavily influenced by high level discussions between France and Russia. It has been said OTL the Serbs were ready to accept the A-H ultimatum, until they received thier own blank check from Russia/France. If the Serbs were seriously contemplating accepting the ultimatum OTL, then I would expect them to seriously consider surrendering against overwhelming forces, if no offer of solidarity/ support was forthcoming on a timely basis.Sure, they can't hold forever, but they just need to avoid surrender long enough for Big Brother Russia to bash the Habsburgs from the side. You're making alot of assumptions that things are going to play out JUST so, but in practical terms the Habsburg government can't know that. If something goes wrong with your predictions; if Germany blinks from you jumping off the cliff, if the Serbs hold on longer than you expect, if the Russians do decide to back Serbia quickly, if the French do decide to honor their alliance quickly, if international opinion dosen't spin off in their favor as much as they predict, if the Hungarians prove less cooperative... than you've just bet the farm and lost.