Different Austro-Hungarian approach to the July Crisis

[Fehérvári]

OTL, the leading figures within Austria-Hungary decided rather early on to deal with Serbia once and for all, and declare war on them. Still, the Austro-Hungarians acted quite cautiously and tried to gain the guarantee of German support first.

What if the Danubian Monarchy had a different kind of approach?

First of all, instead of OTL's little something, the burial ceremony of Franz Ferdinand and his wife should be something grandiouse, most royalties and leaders of Europe should be invited. On the ceremony, and in the diplomatic communication in general, there should be a great emphasis to be put on the assassination's anti-monarchical establishment nature, while the geopolitical-ethnic factors should be belittled. The agenda of condemning Serbia as a terrorism-supporter country should be pushed as much as possible. The king-slaughter of 1903 should be brought up as well.

After the burial then, Austria-Hungary should declare war on Serbia as soon as possible, within a week, while the solidarity with Austria-Hungary is still strong and the despise of Serbia is still common.

It's utmost necessary to have Austria-Hungary to act alone, since the smallest involvement of Germany would immediately lead to the involvement of the other Great Powers, which would make it impossible to localise the conflict. Austria-Hungary alone could keep the conflict localised if they act fast, since not even the Russians would/could stand behind an Europe-wide condemned nation. The best they could do is to press for some guarantees from the Dual Monarchy regarding Serbia's territorial integrity.

Austria-Hungary should declare war on Serbia, without any kind of ultimatums as early as possible, preferably within a week of the burial of FF, so before 10th of July.

For the war, Austria-Hungary should mobilise the Minimalgruppe Balkan and the Staffel-B groups of the army. Such localised war should last around two months, and would end in crushing Austro-Hungarian victory and result in the occupation of Serbia. The whole crisis would end without any other Great Power could significantly interfere.


What do you think about this sceniario? What would be the consequences? How would the later events unfold? Any other kind of remark? Tell me what you think!

 

[The Avenger]

After the A-H occupation of Serbia, Russia sends A-H an ultimatum to withdraw from Serbia. If A-H doesn't do this, then Russia probably declares war (if France gives its approval to this beforehand--and France, as a republic, might be slightly less hostile to regicide than other European monarchies are). I think that Russia's informal alliance with Serbia would still trump any hostility towards regicide in Russia in this TL.

 

[The Avenger]

Heck, if anything, Russia might even declare war on A-H (assuming that France is OK with this, ofc) immediately after A-H goes beyond Belgrade. Russia might be OK with an A-H occupation of Belgrade in this TL but possibly not with anything beyond that.

 

[Fehérvári]

Heck, if anything, Russia might even declare war on A-H (assuming that France is OK with this, ofc) immediately after A-H goes beyond Belgrade. Russia might be OK with an A-H occupation of Belgrade in this TL but possibly not with anything beyond that.

Russia was one of the, if not the most autocratic, pro-monarchy, pro-divine right state in Europe. I believe if the Austro-Hungarians push their agenda properly, then not even them can do much for Serbia without comprising themselves, despite their geopolitical interests.

 

[yourworstnightmare]

Russia was one of the, if not the most autocratic, pro-monarchy, pro-divine right state in Europe. I believe if the Austro-Hungarians push their agenda properly, then not even them can do much for Serbia without comprising themselves, despite their geopolitical interests.

No Russia would act. Further Austrian expansion in the Balkans was exactly what the Russians feared and could no tolerate.

Also, are we really implying Konrad von Hötzendorf is capable of a quick painless occupation of Serbia, lol.

 

[Halagaz]

After the burial then, Austria-Hungary should declare war on Serbia as soon as possible, within a week
...
Austria-Hungary should declare war on Serbia, without any kind of ultimatums as early as possible, preferably within a week of the burial of FF, so before 10th of July.

How soon is that, though?

In OTL, the funeral was on July 3rd: five days after FF's assassination. But if you're turning FF's funeral into a grandiose spectacle, inviting Europe's royals, etc etc...there's simply no way to organize this kind of thing in 5 days. The date of the funeral would have to be pushed further into the future, along with the rest of the (hypothetical) plan. I think the funeral would be around July 15 - and that's if you're lucky.

There are also several issues not related to the funeral. Mobilization in A-H was a three-week process. The harvest policy also bogged down a considerable part of A-H's army and made things even slower and more complicated. And the authorities were not so much "cautious" as "sluggish". Even those who were super enthusiastic about a war with Serbia - like Conrad and Krobatin - couldn't stop taking vacations in the middle of the crisis.

Basically, this scenario isn't based on a single decision, or a simple change of heart. It requires a huge change in the personalities and abilities of the collective A-H government. They'd need to suddenly think with one mind, speak with one voice, and suddenly get much smarter and more energetic.

We also have to wonder whether the funeral spectacle would be all that effective. Belgrade's reputation was bad, but Vienna itself was not very trustworthy or reputable either. And, by 1914, the age of monarchical solidarity was pretty much over. Even the most autocratic monarchs could no longer rule without paying some attention to public opinion and national interest.

IMO, the best Vienna could hope for is for the Entente to grudgingly accept a "halt in Belgrade" operation, while watching the situation like a hawk for any breach of the agreement. And that's if A-H really aces the funeral spectacle and the background diplomacy.

 

[Philip]

Russia was one of the, if not the most autocratic, pro-monarchy, pro-divine right state in Europe. I believe if the Austro-Hungarians push their agenda properly, then not even them can do much for Serbia without comprising themselves, despite their geopolitical interests.

Russia is also the self-declared protector of the Orthodox world. It wouldn't be hard for them to justify defending Serbia against Austria-Hungary. Nicky's statement runs something like this:

"The Serbian anarchists have committed grave crimes. Regicide is never justified. (<shutters> I have an eerily strong feeling about this.) But Austria does not seek justice. Their demands call for nothing less than the destruction of the Serbian nation. It is Russia's duty to protect our sister Serbia. We will secure Serbia and then punish those responsible for this heinous act. (C'est bon, monsieur l'ambassadeur?) With Russian guidance Serbia will take her place among the peace-loving nations of the world."​

 

[FillyofDelphi]

Russia is also the self-declared protector of the Orthodox world. It wouldn't be hard for them to justify defending Serbia against Austria-Hungary. Nicky's statement runs something like this:

"The Serbian anarchists have committed grave crimes. Regicide is never justified. (<shutters> I have an eerily strong feeling about this.) But Austria does not seek justice. Their demands call for nothing less than the destruction of the Serbian nation. It is Russia's duty to protect our sister Serbia. We will secure Serbia and then punish those responsible for this heinous act. (C'est bon, monsieur l'ambassadeur?) With Russian guidance Serbia will take her place among the peace-loving nations of the world."​

A very good point, Philip. The simple fact of the matter is A-H is stuck between a rock and a hard place, diplomatically and domestically speaking: in order to get the required "Good guy" label diplomatically and get Russia to be unable to really paint her as the agressor, she has to demonstrate that she's exhausted all methoids short of war. Furthermore, its going to take time to organize a mobalization and get the Hungarian government to fully align itself with Vienna if they want to conduct the kind of quick, decisive campaign they'd need in order to present the Russian army with a fait accompli AND (preferably maneuver Italy into a position where she coulden't make a solid legal arguement for not at least making a token declaration in support of her de juro ally (IE. Getting the Halt in Belgrade policy fully agreed upon and publicized)... but those negotiations of the exact terms is going to take time. While all this is going on, the Russians are already in their "Period preparatory to war"... and once they get their army on the ground AH can't afford to not turn the bulk of her forces north to block it.

Now, if you don't get the Germans involved and pull out the best of the ancestorial Habsburg knack for diplomacy you could possibly get through this without France declaring war (And Great Britain offering to mediate), but in that case you're gambling with the lose conditions being an Austro-Russian war... which would be the death of the former. If anything, I'd say a better policy would be to extend the ultimatium LONGER and send out feelers to a trustworthy neutral (The Danes were good go-betweens several times during the early years for potential peace talks between Germany and Britain; perhaps saying you'd be glad to have Copenhagen chair talks if Serbia finds some of the terms of the ultimatum unacceptable. If nothing else, that would give Austria more time to organize that grand funeral, better co-ordinate with their German allies, wheel and deal with the Italians, ect.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

Whether Russia joins in straight away or not is balanced by more than simple "Russia is the protector of the Orthodox world" logic. Russia thought itself the protector of the Christian world in the Ottoman Empire in 1854 and look how that turned out...

I digress. If Russia comes storming in to 'save' Serbia, that gives Germany the excuse to storm in and 'save' Austria and we have WWI with a slightly different start. It would also make Britain's position more complicated as Russia is far more clearly the aggressor here than they were in OTL 1914.

Overall, I agree with @Fehérvári that Vienna's best course of action would have been a swift movement against Serbia, whilst sympathy was still high for the Hapsburg's cause. The longer the dithering lasted, the more it became apparent that Vienna was attempting to 'utilise' the Archduke's death for some wider purpose. A rapid attack against the state sponsoring regicide would be the best option.

 

[The Avenger]

Russia was one of the, if not the most autocratic, pro-monarchy, pro-divine right state in Europe. I believe if the Austro-Hungarians push their agenda properly, then not even them can do much for Serbia without comprising themselves, despite their geopolitical interests.

Russia's pro-monarchy attitude didn't prevent it from allying with France, though. Indeed, Russia was careful to distinguish its personal views from its interests.

 

[Fehérvári]

No Russia would act. Further Austrian expansion in the Balkans was exactly what the Russians feared and could no tolerate.

I don't think Russia could act properly in time, if the Austro-Hungarians take actions early enough. Even if we only look at the Russian mobilisation speed, fast reaction is not possible. On the top of that, any kind of action taken against the Austro-Hungarians would inevitably mean confrontation with Germany as well, which the Russians wouldn't undertake without coordinating with the French first, which would mean even more wasted time on their behalf. Also the Russians weren't yet ready for war, so that's another factor to look at.

Also, are we really implying Konrad von Hötzendorf is capable of a quick painless occupation of Serbia, lol.

Still better, than Potiorek. Also Serbia would face 3 entirely deployed Austro-Hungarian armies. Even if they put up a fight, and the plans don't go as intended, the Serbs can't match up against such numerical superiority. Especially since much more artillery pieces would be located on the front, compared to OTL.

How soon is that, though?

In OTL, the funeral was on July 3rd: five days after FF's assassination. But if you're turning FF's funeral into a grandiose spectacle, inviting Europe's royals, etc etc...there's simply no way to organize this kind of thing in 5 days. The date of the funeral would have to be pushed further into the future, along with the rest of the (hypothetical) plan. I think the funeral would be around July 15 - and that's if you're lucky.

I'm by no means an expert on royal funerals, but I don't think such long time would be necessary, it could be held on the 10th already. On the otherhand, it doesn't matter. The funeral will keep up the feeling of recentness of the assassination, which could buy some time for the Monarchy.

There are also several issues not related to the funeral. Mobilization in A-H was a three-week process. The harvest policy also bogged down a considerable part of A-H's army and made things even slower and more complicated. And the authorities were not so much "cautious" as "sluggish". Even those who were super enthusiastic about a war with Serbia - like Conrad and Krobatin - couldn't stop taking vacations in the middle of the crisis.

Not calling back the soldiers was a choice of the Monarchy and not a necessity, since they tried to save themselves from the economical drawbacks of the mobilisation if there wouldn't break out a war, after all. Also, based on my readings, Austria-Hungary could mobilise against Serbia in 18 days.
If I remember well, many went vacations for two main reasons: To coat the Monarchy's intentions and also to rest one last time before the war. They felt that they have time, since they already wasted some and at thia point they wanted to wait until the French president (or PM?) finishes his visit in St. Petersburg.

Basically, this scenario isn't based on a single decision, or a simple change of heart. It requires a huge change in the personalities and abilities of the collective A-H government. They'd need to suddenly think with one mind, speak with one voice, and suddenly get much smarter and more energetic.

Going to war with Serbia was already decided around 1-3rd of July, the communications with Germany was what slowed down the processes initially.

We also have to wonder whether the funeral spectacle would be all that effective. Belgrade's reputation was bad, but Vienna itself was not very trustworthy or reputable either. And, by 1914, the age of monarchical solidarity was pretty much over. Even the most autocratic monarchs could no longer rule without paying some attention to public opinion and national interest.

This is exactly why the Monarchy would have to act swiftly, while the shock effect is still present. I know that Austria-Hungary wasn't completely trusted due to earlier shenanigans, but still, the international community's solidarity could last 3 weeks in such sceniaro, in my opinion. The public of the Western states also viewed the Balkan as some barbaric, lawless area, where the countries, especially Serbia can't keep themselves to international agreements.

IMO, the best Vienna could hope for is for the Entente to grudgingly accept a "halt in Belgrade" operation, while watching the situation like a hawk for any breach of the agreement. And that's if A-H really aces the funeral spectacle and the background diplomacy.

The halt in Belgrade might be a likely sceniario, but I also see a chance of Bulgaria and Greece taking the opportunity to invade Serbia together with Austria-Hungary. Romania could participate as well.

Russia is also the self-declared protector of the Orthodox world. It wouldn't be hard for them to justify defending Serbia against Austria-Hungary. Nicky's statement runs something like this:

"The Serbian anarchists have committed grave crimes. Regicide is never justified. (<shutters> I have an eerily strong feeling about this.) But Austria does not seek justice. Their demands call for nothing less than the destruction of the Serbian nation. It is Russia's duty to protect our sister Serbia. We will secure Serbia and then punish those responsible for this heinous act. (C'est bon, monsieur l'ambassadeur?) With Russian guidance Serbia will take her place among the peace-loving nations of the world."

When did he say this though? It sounds to me like it was said well after the shock of assassination was gone and Austria-Hungary already sent its demarch and ultimatum, which were nowhere received warmly.

 

[Fehérvári]

Russia's pro-monarchy attitude didn't prevent it from allying with France, though. Indeed, Russia was careful to distinguish its personal views from its interests.

I think there's a firm difference between allying with a republic and sponsoring a country widely viewed as regicide and terrorist supporter.

 

[1940LaSalle]

One sort-of-quibble: since Franz Josef wasn't on the best of terms with his nephew in the first place and since his chamberlain, Count Montenuovo, despised Franz Ferdinand and would do almost anything to stiff him (including slights imposed on Sophie), I don't think there will be an all-out, maximum formalities funeral. Montenuovo would do his best to play it down and keep it as low-key (and by extension, insulting) to FF. But that might help the situation: a relatively low-grade funeral could be organized quickly, allowing for quick action against Serbia while sympathy for A-H is still running high.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

Whether Russia joins in straight away or not is balanced by more than simple "Russia is the protector of the Orthodox world" logic. Russia thought itself the protector of the Christian world in the Ottoman Empire in 1854 and look how that turned out...

I digress. If Russia comes storming in to 'save' Serbia, that gives Germany the excuse to storm in and 'save' Austria and we have WWI with a slightly different start. It would also make Britain's position more complicated as Russia is far more clearly the aggressor here than they were in OTL 1914.

Overall, I agree with @Fehérvári that Vienna's best course of action would have been a swift movement against Serbia, whilst sympathy was still high for the Hapsburg's cause. The longer the dithering lasted, the more it became apparent that Vienna was attempting to 'utilise' the Archduke's death for some wider purpose. A rapid attack against the state sponsoring regicide would be the best option.

Sure, that's Vienna's best course of action in theory. Its a shame Budapest isen't exactly singing in harmony with them, either in terms of the ultimate wargoals (Indeed, what WOULD Austria announce as her actual intentions in this scenario?) or in terms of actual military structure. The Imperial government needs to get the support of the Hungarian half of the government, get herself deployed to the Serbian border (along Austria-Hungary's messed of rail system and using a mobalization plan that by its nature requires every train to move at the rate of the slowest one), and raise the forces required to defend the Galican border in case Russia does decide to make a move before Serbia formally surrenders/lays down arms. This scenario is gambling the Empire that Austria can get off a successful offensive from the far reaches of her Empire before the Serbs can get a suitable defense of their capital, come up with war aims off the cuff that will satisfy the international community, that Serbia will sue for terms as soon as Belgrade is seized, and that Russia will agree to mediation rather than pursuing the war.

 

[Fehérvári]

Sure, that's Vienna's best course of action in theory. Its a shame Budapest isen't exactly singing in harmony with them, either in terms of the ultimate wargoals (Indeed, what WOULD Austria announce as her actual intentions in this scenario?) or in terms of actual military structure. The Imperial government needs to get the support of the Hungarian half of the government, get herself deployed to the Serbian border (along Austria-Hungary's messed of rail system and using a mobalization plan that by its nature requires every train to move at the rate of the slowest one), and raise the forces required to defend the Galican border in case Russia does decide to make a move before Serbia formally surrenders/lays down arms. This scenario is gambling the Empire that Austria can get off a successful offensive from the far reaches of her Empire before the Serbs can get a suitable defense of their capital, come up with war aims off the cuff that will satisfy the international community, that Serbia will sue for terms as soon as Belgrade is seized, and that Russia will agree to mediation rather than pursuing the war.

It really doesn't matter, what the Hungarians think, the foreign affairs are common and only the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the ruler can say anything about war and peace, and in the end, it's still solely the decision of the monarch. Also it was only Tisza, who opposed the war, but by 16th, even he agreed to the war. His change of mind could probably occur earlier with the changes circumstances of this sceniario, while his suggestion to not annex large parts of Serbia, max only some very minor border adjustments would easily be accepted in the war council, since noone really wanted to take more Slavic territories since the Bosnian Annexation Crisis. The Monarchy would also demand war reparations after the victory.

Also the mobilisation was only tricky towards Galicia. Towards South, Serbia, there was no problem with the railway system, the transport of the troops could be done swiftly.

As I said earlier, Russia won't act, it can't! It needs to consult with France first, since any action taken against A-H means war with Germany, forwhich the Russians don't feel prepared anyway. Therefore, there's no need to mobilise to the Russian border.

Belgrade is right at the border, there's no such thing as suitable defense. The Monarchy wants to neutralise Serbia rapidly, so they will attack from the North, prolly taking Szabács first, then marching to Belgrade. In this sceniario.

 

[BooNZ]

"It's better to beg for forgiveness than to ask for permission".

An earlier A-H declaration of war provides less scope for the French hawks to build a case for war. Without the OTL Franco-Russian pep talks, the Russians are less certain of French support, which may cause them to hesitate to reach for the hammer. Further, without the assurance of certain Franco-Russian belligerence, Serbian military forces either surrender, or more probably, immediately withdraw.

Like France, an earlier start to hostilities means the British doves (who represented the majority of the decision makers) are more heavily involved in diplomacy earlier. It is not certain, but possible the British would declare non-interest/ neutrality in respect of the Balkan matters - but at a minimum, Britain would be working to restrain France. I expect Grey would likely run with something resembling a halt at Belgrade proposal.

It is reasonable to expect Germany to publicly support any British halt at Belgrade proposal, but Germany is likely substantially replicate Russian military responses. I doubt Russia would proceed beyond pre-mobilization without French support and probable British neutrality.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

It really doesn't matter, what the Hungarians think, the foreign affairs are common and only the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the ruler can say anything about war and peace, and in the end, it's still solely the decision of the monarch. Also it was only Tisza, who opposed the war, but by 16th, even he agreed to the war. His change of mind could probably occur earlier with the changes circumstances of this sceniario, while his suggestion to not annex large parts of Serbia, max only some very minor border adjustments would easily be accepted in the war council, since noone really wanted to take more Slavic territories since the Bosnian Annexation Crisis. The Monarchy would also demand war reparations after the victory.

Also the mobilisation was only tricky towards Galicia. Towards South, Serbia, there was no problem with the railway system, the transport of the troops could be done swiftly.

As I said earlier, Russia won't act, it can't! It needs to consult with France first, since any action taken against A-H means war with Germany, forwhich the Russians don't feel prepared anyway. Therefore, there's no need to mobilise to the Russian border.

Belgrade is right at the border, there's no such thing as suitable defense. The Monarchy wants to neutralise Serbia rapidly, so they will attack from the North, prolly taking Szabács first, then marching to Belgrade. In this sceniario.

Methinks you are falling victim to the benefit of hindsight and viewing the situation solely in the abstract, rather than considering what the situation on the practical situation on the ground at the time. Sure, if you're running the country like in a 4X game, with the enemy being a predictable AI, your control neigh absolute, and the benefit of full information than its easy to adopt the "best" decsision, but real life dosen't work that way.

First, you do kind of need the Hungarians to co-operate; 1/3 of your army is under Budapest's command, after all, as well as the logistical system (both in infastructure and civilian supply) in your main areas of operation. Sure, we know with the benefit of hindsight that you'd eventually get their approval (Which occured partially because the opposition felt like it got a fair shot and terms were negotiated; they're likely to feel put upon if the Imperial government doesn't consult them and tries to simply to "pull rank" with an immediate declaration of war... over the assasination of a man who wasen't shy about expressing his disdain for the Magyars.) You can't just change the mobalization plans on a dime; its a highly complex process that's the result of years of setting up pre-prepared railway schedules, unit mustering and transport locations, supply shipments, ect. on a precise and industrial scale, and the offical A-H warplans don't allow for a particularly swift transport of troops especially since you'd need time for the men to fill out the units, ect.

Russia of course can act. They can start mobalization (As they did historically) to prepare for an assult against Galicia. Sure, you can SAY they won't act without consulting the French... but what if they do? (As they certainly have the capability to do; there's no gurantee that Serbia will capitulate within 6 weeks). Now you have a prepared army stormy across your poorly defended border, occupying some of your best agricultural land and main source of petrolium and throwing off mobalization in the area... and you have nothing more than some garrisons standing between them and the passes into the Hungarian plains. Any attempt to throw together an army to stop them is going to be at least partially slapdash and less effective than defending the border based on pre-war planning, and dosen't have a good chance to succeed based on pre-war assumptions on the nature of warfare (Being at least somewhat mobile)... and if they get into the Imperial core you can say goodbye to your country. Again, you don't have the benefit of 20/20 hindsight or a crystal ball. There's also a bit of hypocrisy here: assuming Germany is going to back Austria with a blank cheque without pre-consultation but saying that France won't give a fig without extensive talks with Russia first.

The Serbians can stage a suitable defense... we know this from our own history. Sure, they can't hold forever, but they just need to avoid surrender long enough for Big Brother Russia to bash the Habsburgs from the side. You're making alot of assumptions that things are going to play out JUST so, but in practical terms the Habsburg government can't know that. If something goes wrong with your predictions; if Germany blinks from you jumping off the cliff, if the Serbs hold on longer than you expect, if the Russians do decide to back Serbia quickly, if the French do decide to honor their alliance quickly, if international opinion dosen't spin off in their favor as much as they predict, if the Hungarians prove less cooperative... than you've just bet the farm and lost.

 

[Tibi088]

There is a huge misunderstanding here. OP supposes and everyone seems to accept that the question of this turning in to a world war hangs on Russian intention of attacking A-H. Thats incorrect.

OTL Germany attacked Russia because it mobilized. Not because it attacked Austria. For Germany Russian mobilization is a casus belli. And I really dont see we can avoid that with an Austrian -Serbian war.

I cant imagine Russia not mobilizing even if it doesnt itend to go to war to put pressure on A-H so it cant commit its full force against Serbia. However the German warplan depends completly on the fact they can mobilize faster than Russia. Before WWI it was declare war and start to mobilize - A-H did this with Serbia. However Russia and France found a great way to negate German advantage here with their first mobilize and declare war after strategy. That way Germany either takes on the role of the agressor to push his advantage (OTL) or gives up the advantage and waits for DOW. They will be faced with the same dilemma as OTL even if Russia doesnt initially itend to go to war.

The question is: would Russia be more willing to accept the german ultimatum than OTL? Because if not we just turned this to a world war earlier.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

Sure, that's Vienna's best course of action in theory. Its a shame Budapest isen't exactly singing in harmony with them, either in terms of the ultimate wargoals (Indeed, what WOULD Austria announce as her actual intentions in this scenario?) or in terms of actual military structure. The Imperial government needs to get the support of the Hungarian half of the government, get herself deployed to the Serbian border (along Austria-Hungary's messed of rail system and using a mobalization plan that by its nature requires every train to move at the rate of the slowest one), and raise the forces required to defend the Galican border in case Russia does decide to make a move before Serbia formally surrenders/lays down arms. This scenario is gambling the Empire that Austria can get off a successful offensive from the far reaches of her Empire before the Serbs can get a suitable defense of their capital, come up with war aims off the cuff that will satisfy the international community, that Serbia will sue for terms as soon as Belgrade is seized, and that Russia will agree to mediation rather than pursuing the war.

When I say Vienna I mean the Austro-Hungarian government.

Unless you’re seriously suggesting a DoW by the Emperor would result in a Hungarian revolt and civil war, it’s not an issue.

I was under the impression on commencement of hostilities the command of both “Home” armies passed to the Emperor anyway.

 

[Fehérvári]

Methinks you are falling victim to the benefit of hindsight and viewing the situation solely in the abstract, rather than considering what the situation on the practical situation on the ground at the time. Sure, if you're running the country like in a 4X game, with the enemy being a predictable AI, your control neigh absolute, and the benefit of full information than its easy to adopt the "best" decsision, but real life dosen't work that way.

What part of my sceniario depends on hindsight, if I may ask?
It's a fact, that the matter of war was decided already on 1-3. of July.
Winning some time to prepare for war using the funeral of FF is also not a far-fetched idea, especially, because it was also planned to be a bit bigger in OTL, with the invitation of Wilhelm II.
There were many time wasted by the Austro-Hungarians as well, and I don't think that not to do so would be ASB or anything.
Finally, the Germans proved multiple times, that they would get behind Austria-Hungary in any sceniario, no matter what, so leaving out the Germans from the decision-making would make no real harm to their alliance.

First, you do kind of need the Hungarians to co-operate; 1/3 of your army is under Budapest's command, after all, as well as the logistical system (both in infastructure and civilian supply) in your main areas of operation. Sure, we know with the benefit of hindsight that you'd eventually get their approval (Which occured partially because the opposition felt like it got a fair shot and terms were negotiated; they're likely to feel put upon if the Imperial government doesn't consult them and tries to simply to "pull rank" with an immediate declaration of war... over the assasination of a man who wasen't shy about expressing his disdain for the Magyars.) You can't just change the mobalization plans on a dime; its a highly complex process that's the result of years of setting up pre-prepared railway schedules, unit mustering and transport locations, supply shipments, ect. on a precise and industrial scale, and the offical A-H warplans don't allow for a particularly swift transport of troops especially since you'd need time for the men to fill out the units, ect.

Unlike the Austrian parliement, the Hungarian one was functional, and Tisza had a clear-cut majority in it. If you get Tisza's approval, then everything goes smoothely.
Besides, in war-time the Second-line armies are automatically integrated into the K.u.K Armee nevertheless.
Also, it's not like the Hungarians wouldn't want a war against the Serbs, who have claims on their soil as well.
I give you that, the war plans, the Kriegsfall B can't be changed in the last moment, but despite the difficulties of the terrain, it's not impossible to conduct the invasion successfully from there. Ofcourse, it might need some luck and/or some Serbian mishaps, but it is by no means an impossible sceniario.

Russia of course can act. They can start mobalization (As they did historically) to prepare for an assult against Galicia. Sure, you can SAY they won't act without consulting the French... but what if they do? (As they certainly have the capability to do; there's no gurantee that Serbia will capitulate within 6 weeks). Now you have a prepared army stormy across your poorly defended border, occupying some of your best agricultural land and main source of petrolium and throwing off mobalization in the area... and you have nothing more than some garrisons standing between them and the passes into the Hungarian plains. Any attempt to throw together an army to stop them is going to be at least partially slapdash and less effective than defending the border based on pre-war planning, and dosen't have a good chance to succeed based on pre-war assumptions on the nature of warfare (Being at least somewhat mobile)... and if they get into the Imperial core you can say goodbye to your country. Again, you don't have the benefit of 20/20 hindsight or a crystal ball. There's also a bit of hypocrisy here: assuming Germany is going to back Austria with a blank cheque without pre-consultation but saying that France won't give a fig without extensive talks with Russia first.

I don't say that the Russians wouldn't want to react, but the international atmosphere and their discussion with the French would make them hesitate. Also since France and the A-H has almost zero confrontation with each other, I don't think, that the French would back the Russians that eagerly. The risk of eventual German involvement is too big.
Also if the Russians still mobilise, than this sceniario wouldn't be more, than "What if WW1 started two weeks earlier?" sceniario, which is not that interesting.
The undefended Galicia vision of yours confuses me. Why would it be the case? The Staffel-A mobilisation group is still there to move to Galicia, if the Russians mobilise.
Also, I say it again. Yes the Germans will back-up the Austro-Hungarians, because they are obliged to do so, since that would be a defensive war in the context of Russia. On the other hand, the Russian attack would certainly mean German involvement and thus a major European war, which the Russians must negotiate with the French first.

The Serbians can stage a suitable defense... we know this from our own history. Sure, they can't hold forever, but they just need to avoid surrender long enough for Big Brother Russia to bash the Habsburgs from the side. You're making alot of assumptions that things are going to play out JUST so, but in practical terms the Habsburg government can't know that. If something goes wrong with your predictions; if Germany blinks from you jumping off the cliff, if the Serbs hold on longer than you expect, if the Russians do decide to back Serbia quickly, if the French do decide to honor their alliance quickly, if international opinion dosen't spin off in their favor as much as they predict, if the Hungarians prove less cooperative... than you've just bet the farm and lost.

I answered this part mostly at the previous parts, but about the Serb defense:
Even if they hold out, that doesn't matter, because the situation for Austria-Hungary is already much better, than it IOTL was. They could make all the initial offesives with 3 entire armies, which also might have better commanders(not Potiorek). The 2nd army(Staffel-B) can leave this frontline in a much better organised way, when its presence there is probably not even needed anymore.
In this sceniario, the Monarchy also wouldn't resort to offensive on the Russian front, since its armies probably couldn't take their position soon enough to have time to attack before the Russian armies finish to take their positions, unlike OTL. The Austro-Hungarians would remain on the defensive atleast until the 2nd Army arrives from Serbia.
This is one sceniario, the other is, that Russia indeed do not act and A-H invades Serbia without any real outter opposition.

There is a huge misunderstanding here. OP supposes and everyone seems to accept that the question of this turning in to a world war hangs on Russian intention of attacking A-H. Thats incorrect.

OTL Germany attacked Russia because it mobilized. Not because it attacked Austria. For Germany Russian mobilization is a casus belli. And I really dont see we can avoid that with an Austrian -Serbian war.

I didn't really miss that though, that why I used the "Russia taking any actions against Austria-Hungary" (or something like that) expression.
On the other hand, I don't think the Russian mobilisation is a given matter. In the timeframe of 10 years, Austria-Hungary partially mobilised against Serbia twice already, and in none of them did Russia mobilise. Ofcourse, an actual war-situation is a bit different, but still, the Russians are likely to waste some time, due to afforementioned reasons, and they might lose the opportunity to intervene in time.