Different alliances in WWI with a 1914 PoD

^The latter is the most likely IMHO. What could just as easily happen is the attempts to draw both states in diplomatically misfires, so neither has any incentive to fight. One wonders how the Allies would have used the troops which IOTL fought in Palestine, Gallipoli, the Caucasus, Suez, and how the Central Powers would have used Boroevic in the Eastern Front.


Indeed. I do think that if the Ottomans did stay out initially, there would be heroic efforts of the parts of all sorts of players to reignite the Balkan Wars, so the Ottomans would have to continue to be in a state of near war either way.

Have you ever heard of any plans to deploy Entente forces to mainland Russia? I would imagine that if the Straits stayed open or something like that, they would have been tempted to investigate the idea
 
The two that spring to mind are Italy and the Ottomens.

IF Churchill dosnt impound the Turkish Battleships then they might refuse the German Cobene sanctuary and remain neutral.

Italy was bound by treaty to the Central Powers but renaged by first stayind neutral and then joining the Allies.

The seizure of the two Turkish battleships had nothing to do with the Turks entering the war.
 
Indeed. I do think that if the Ottomans did stay out initially, there would be heroic efforts of the parts of all sorts of players to reignite the Balkan Wars, so the Ottomans would have to continue to be in a state of near war either way.

Have you ever heard of any plans to deploy Entente forces to mainland Russia? I would imagine that if the Straits stayed open or something like that, they would have been tempted to investigate the idea

I'm not entirely sure that would have been necessary, as without having to send so many troops to fight in the Caucasus Russia has more generals and better generals for the real war against Germany. Yudenich never lost a battle in the OTL WWI, what he'd do against the Germans is an interesting question. By the flip side the Germans have more troops available for both the West and the East both.....
 
Another possible change would be a failure to renegotiate the Austria-Hungarian Ausgleich. This difficult task had iotl been postponed due to the Great war.

I was going to say that. How would you all envison an alternate war breaking out due to A-H imploding over that? I had the idea of the south slavs rebelling against A-H due to not being included, Czechs also do so, Austria and Hungary tries to suppress it, Germany backs up Austrria & Russia the Czechs, Poles and South Slavs and so on so on.....
 
I was going to say that. How would you all envison an alternate war breaking out due to A-H imploding over that? I had the idea of the south slavs rebelling against A-H due to not being included, Czechs also do so, Austria and Hungary tries to suppress it, Germany backs up Austrria & Russia the Czechs, Poles and South Slavs and so on so on.....
There are dozens of possible scenarios for a breaking up of AH.
Just one example: It may be that Austria doesn´t back up Hungary and is willing to grant its (fewer) minorities additional rights. In turn Hungary dissolves the personal union. The Croats probably side with the Austrians if they aren´t granted special rights by their Hungarian overlords and if that happens it will ignite uprisings of other minorities in the Hungarian part. Once the breakup is reality Serbia and Romania might try to grab what they can. But what happens with the great powers? Germany would probably support Austria to save as much of their empire as possible. Russia supports its Serbian and Romanian Allies and try to grab some part of Hungary as well. But would the Germans and Russians really be allied because they are both against Hungary despite their very different war goals? Furthermore a Russian comeback on the Balkans would be unwelcome to the Ottomans and most likely Britain as well and they might oppose Russia. Italy has its main interests in the Austrian part of the dissolving empire making it another possible supporter of Hungary. Which leaves in Europe France which has only bad choices, but won´t like staying out. What a mess. Germany and an Austrian led confederation of nationalities in the western part of the former empire against Hungary and perhaps Croatia who fight at the same time against Russias pan slavic coalition which won´t be welcome to the German coalition and Britain, Italy, France and the Ottomans might fight both coalitions, just the Russian one, just the German one, support one or stay totally out. Every decision allows dozens of radically different wars, from a normal civil war inside AH to even more chaotic wars than the one above.
 
Controversy in the Caucasus, Persia, Afghanistan or China could cause the relationship between Russia and Britain to deteriorate.
 
The Ottoman Empire would be fairly easy to flip or go neutral.
In my opinion it would be very unlikely for the Ottomans to switch sides.

The Ottomans rivalry with and territorial aspirations from Russia.

The Germans had an interest in developing the Middle East to counter British India.

The British liberals considered the Ottomans a cruel and decadent despotate.

The idea of Britain and Russia allowing Turkey to take Slavic or Greek territory in the Balkans is ridiculous.

The Ottomans had a lot to lose and almost nothing to gain from switching sides.


An interesting if unlikely idea is for Germany to abandon or significantly cool its alliance with Austria-Hungary. This would enable Germany to avoid being "shackled to a corpse" and drawn into wars in the Balkans; and strengthen the German-Italian alliance. Also, Austria-Hungary was a natural area for German expansionism.
 
I like the Austro-Hungarian CW idea a LOT!!! That union was never completely stable anyway and the Hungarians kept making bigger and bigger demands which the Austrians HAD to grant or lose the union.

So, what if HUNGARY's ultimatum to Austria is the match that lights the powder keg instead of Austria's untimatum to Serbia?

I LOVE IT!!

Austria then either has to extend rights to its minorities or have them revolt. Romania sees its chance to take Transylvania. The Serbs (and Montenegrins?) invade Bosnia in the name of pan-slavism. Russia sits back and cheers on Serbia. And Germany can't figure out what is the best response to all of this . . . .

Do Austrian Poles revolt and ignite similar responses in Russian and German controlled areas?

Certainly, Italy would invade Austria in the Alps and along the Adriatic; perhaps running into Serbs in Bosnia and starting a three-sided conflict?

Wouldn't Britain, France, and (perhaps Germany) want to contain all of this in Hungary and the Balkans? Could it be contained??
 
Ausgleich renegotiation collapses in 1917. General war ensues. Alliances:

Central Powers:
Germany
Austria
Romania
Greece
Albania

Entente:
Russia
France
Italy
Hungary
Serbia
Montenegro
Bulgaria

Neutrals:
Ottoman Empire
British Empire
Spain
Portugal
United States
Japan
 
Ausgleich renegotiation collapses in 1917. General war ensues. Alliances:

Central Powers:
Germany
Austria
Romania
Greece
Albania

Entente:
Russia
France
Italy
Hungary
Serbia
Montenegro
Bulgaria

Neutrals:
Ottoman Empire
British Empire
Spain
Portugal
United States
Japan
I have several problems with this list: Why are Serbia and Montenegro on the same side as Hungary? The only possible gains for them are in the Hungarian part of the Empire, thus it makes no sense if they side with Hungary. And if you change their side there are many new considerations for other states in the list. For example the states entering probably later Greece and Albania would now be rather in the Hungarian camp, while Bulgaria now has a real reason to do that, as they will imo most likely turn against Serbia, which wouldn´t be the case in your scenario.
Furthermore I am not sure the Russians would support Hungary against the interests of all their allies on the Balkan, especially if Austria is willing to cede some of the unruly parts of Galicia, imo not that unlikely while their empire is cracking everywhere. The Austrians did the same iotl 1918 after all in the so called Brotfrieden as well.
Of course the situation would be chaotic enough that everthing could happen but I would really like to hear your reasoning especially for Serbia and Montenegro.
 
I have several problems with this list: Why are Serbia and Montenegro on the same side as Hungary? The only possible gains for them are in the Hungarian part of the Empire, thus it makes no sense if they side with Hungary. And if you change their side there are many new considerations for other states in the list. For example the states entering probably later Greece and Albania would now be rather in the Hungarian camp, while Bulgaria now has a real reason to do that, as they will imo most likely turn against Serbia, which wouldn´t be the case in your scenario.
Furthermore I am not sure the Russians would support Hungary against the interests of all their allies on the Balkan, especially if Austria is willing to cede some of the unruly parts of Galicia, imo not that unlikely while their empire is cracking everywhere. The Austrians did the same iotl 1918 after all in the so called Brotfrieden as well.
Of course the situation would be chaotic enough that everthing could happen but I would really like to hear your reasoning especially for Serbia and Montenegro.
The Banat was administratively part of Hungary, yes, as was Croatia, but Bosnia and Dalmatia were not, and both would be immediate concerns for Serbia and Montenegro, respectively, as was true in our timeline. Greece and Albania enter the war late, once it's clear that BUlgaria has sided with the Serbs against Austria and Romania. Due to Hungarian intransigence, Romania has ample reason to side with Austria, namely detaching Transylvania from Hungary, and Bessarabia from Russia, whose interests are best served weakening Austria.
 
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