Diem loses the Battle of Saigon - 1955

Japhy

Banned
At the end of the First Indochina War, the French Counter/Intelligence Service the SDECE had developed major connections with several Autonomous Anti-Communist Armies in Southern Vietnam. Created and Run by Religious Sects, Tribal Cheiftans, and Criminal Organizations these National Armies were all decreed to be part of the Vietnamese National Army in 1949 by the French-backed Playboy Emperor Bao Dai. It was though these Private Armies that the SDECE came to dominate the Opium Trade in Indochina and help fund their own and the French Militarys operations in South East Asia.

With the French military defeat though, and the rise of Prime Minister Diem with US Backing, these Private Armies were on the downswing. The Opium/Heroin trade though was booming in Saigon under the watchful eye of the SDECE and their Binh Xuyen allies, The Criminal Cartel which in fact legally controlled the National Police and their own army. The SDECE-Binh Xuyen alliance was so profitable in fact that Colonel Edward Landsdale of the CIA decided that it had to be transfered to the direct control of the CIA and Diem.

The SDECE and the Binh Xuyen/National Police actively decided to oppose this move, and for just about the only time in the Cold War, two Western Intelligence Agencies went to war in the Spring of 1955, right in the center of Saigon.

The Binh Xuyen and the French made attempts to bring in other Independent Armies to move against the Diem Regime but were rebuffed. Many of those forces such as Hoa Hao, and Cao Dai would face repression by the Diem regime only a few years later. Without there support the Binh Xuyen were pushed by the National Army into the slums of Saigon where they fought on in house to house fighting. One of their main tactics at this point was for the French to place large Bounties on the heads of the Diem brothers and Colonel Lansdale and other lesser figures in the regime to be paid on the delivery of a corpse. After several weeks of fighting were finally wiped out in May of 1955.

The Surviors of the Binh Xuyen were either killed, disarmed, or in many cases incorporated into the VC. Diem meanwhile would soon hold a rigged vote to remove the Emperor as Head of State, and would Prop himself up as a dictator who would hold power until meeting his end in the Back of an Armored Personnel Carrier in November of 1963.

So that long-winded explanation of things done. Two options I'm wondering about.

First: Say the other Independent Armies come to the support of the SDECE and the Binh Xuyen, and Diem and the Vietnamese National Army are defeated. What happens with the War against the Communists? The US position, and what do the French do if they're back in a position of dominance if only one quarter of their old Indochinese Empire?

Second: Lets say that the Independent Armies don't rally to overthrow the Goverment, what happens if instead the Bounties on the Diem Brothers, and/or Landsdale are paid out over bullet ridden corpses? Same questions as before, but also what happens to US-French Relations when it comes out that French Intelligence paid for the assassination of a US Military Officer and a US allied Goverment leader?

And also for discussion in any case, how does this sort of thing effect the Drug Trade in Southeast Asia?
 
Depends how the situation unfolds and how or why Diem fails. If he not only fails but is assasinated as well then General Trinh, an avowed francophile, will probably take over. Eventually the private armies will be smashed, no SVN government will continue to tolerate their continued existence after they stopped or took down Diem. Militarily perhaps it means a continued French advisory presence, after the failed putsch in 1961 - you may see some of the notable French officer Bigerad, Trinquer make a return. Economically who knows...
 
Top