Did the Germans have to take Gibraltar to block entrance into the Western Med ?

[McPherson]

1. Gibraltar does not require an assault from the sea.

1. Gibraltar is supplied from the sea and the opposite shore is subject to naval assault. SEAPOWER beats landpower in that geography setup.

Strait of Gibraltar and Bordering Land Masses

The interesting naval problem is Algeciras Bay and Ceuta Point which are the anchorages. Plus there is a nasty current through the Gibraltar Strait that made things hard for attackers in the days of fighting sail, and of course for anything that has to submerge and operate off the battery.... down to the present.

2. The first step is to achieve air supremacy. The German and Italian air forces operated extensively during the Spanish civll war. There is an airfield in Seville - about 90 miles away. There is another one at Cadiz. New airfields closer can be built relatively easily. Gibraltar has only one airfield with limited capacity. In short order, level bombing can render the airfield untenable and then make the harbor untenable as well. You don't need an enormous number of planes to do this.

2. Just how is the LW and the Reggia Aeronautica (What is the reason and why is Italy involved? Rome has ZERO interest in seeing Germans in Gibraltar or in Spain at this point.)supposed to operate?
BTW the appropriately currently named airbase does NOT exist until late 1940 and then only as a fighter strip.

Mogador Gnawa All Stars - Spiritual traditional morrocan ...

3. At this stage bombing can continue gradually wearing down AA capacity.

3. Tried under much better conditions at Malta. Did that work? No.

4. The Italian Navy plus mining the harbor plus air power can make resupply impractical.

4. Tried at MALTA. Did that work? No.

5. At this point, Gibraltar becomes analogous to Corregidor

5. Now one illustrates that one knows very little about the battle of the Philippines 1941-1942. The Japanese had a NAVY and cut the Americans off from the sea. They took 60,000 casualties on land, had to float in a siege train with bombardment mortars when they were stalled on land, use 500,000 tonnes of shipping to supply their entire field ARMY and it took them about half a year after MacArthur threw away his air farce in the beginning to force the surrender. Corrigidor and El Hank was hammered the whole time. Their own naval guns were a major reason Manila Bay was unusable and why Bataan held out for so long.

6. It does not fall immediately but it becomes neutralized and falls eventually due to supply problems.

6. As long as the opposite shore is under British control (And it will be.) that is a hard no.

7. Meanwhile the build up of air power and artillery at Tarifa begins to close off the straits.

6a. The ground is actually unsuitable for heavy naval guns and how is the flotation for bombers' non existent runways in 1940 again?.
6b. Ever hear of the Channel Dash?
6c. Ever hear of the Gibraltar current? (Submarines and mines rendered useless.)
6d. Ever hear of Tangiers?
6e. How good was German coast artillery? Or British? By American standards... See 5, and then 6a, 6b, and then read "incompetent".

Malta is a different situation. More airfields, no ability to move ground forces or airfields closer to the target. But a large population (250,000) that has to be fed and Italian facilities in Sicily and proximity of the Italian Navy.

7. Uhm...

Surrounded on all sides and with Axis naval and air superiority. How did that work out?

1. The first step is again to achieve air supremacy. Flying from Sicily in the summer of 1940 and opposed only by a few biplanes, this should be easy for the combined German and Italian air forces. The first step is to hit the biplanes and knock out airfields and support facilities. The Axis actually achieved this at various points in 42 and 41 against stronger opposition than was present in 1940.

1. If you cannot land the marines, then it means nothing.

2. Then pound on the harbor. The British navy had already withdrawn by June 1940. The Italians were not constrained as to fuel supply prior to Barbarossa so the Italian fleet can enforce a loose blockade aided by mines and air power.

2. If you cannot land the marines, then it means nothing.

3. The Italians had built landing craft as early as 1938 - they were nothing like LSTs - but they weren't facing an Tarawa-like defensive force. The northern islands can be taken quickly and used as logistical centers.

3. If you cannot land the marines, then it means nothing.

4. At this point Malta becomes a headache for the British. It becomes exceedingly difficult to bring in enough fuel, food, water, ammunition to supply the military and feed 250,00 people (as, in fact, it did at various points in 1941 and 1942).

4. If you cannot land the marines, then it means nothing.

5. With Gibraltar compromised, all supplies have to come from the East which simplifies the interdiction process. By late summer 1940, the British contemplate evacuation of the garrison and surrender.

5.

If you cannot land the marines, then it means nothing.

If you cannot land the marines, then it means nothing. BTW, the Italians had not enough AKs, not enough LCIs, Alligators, LSTs or even a swim in tank to handle the Malta beach defenses. Then on the few usable beaches suitable to land; it turns immediately into a Battle of Manila type absolute nightmare show with house to house fighting immediately off the beach. Military Operations Urban Terrain. Might want to ask US 6th Army about that one. Good way to get a lot of attacking infantry killed in a hurry. How is that follow up sustainment, Iachino? NOT TOO GOOD? You DIE on the beach. Ask US 5th Army about what that means. Two places, Salerno and Anzio specifically.

The Italians are going to face that kind of absolute horror, cause the incompetent Germans cannot even do assault from the sea. Do you think they, the WW II Italians, had the stomach for it? They sure did not have the right equipment, training or navy to do it.

 

[Fulton 44]

1. Gibraltar - The Axis doesn't have to be in any rush to take it. Once the airfield and the harbor become untenable, then the Axis can use its own air power, artillery and, if necessary, mines to make it very hard for the British to get in and out of the Western Med. And in 1940, it doesn't take enormous air resources to shut down the airfield and harbor. I saw one story which indicated that the Germans operated air units out of Seville during the Spanish Civil War. There were also airfields in Spanish Morocco - It think that is how Franco got back home. And we are not talking about fields that can land a 747. Many of the fields used during the Battle of Britain look like smoothed over Rugby fields. Once air superiority is achieved, it is still possible for the RN to pass through the straits but as air power builds up in the area, it becomes riskier and riskier. A gradual but steady build up at Tarifa will ultimately close it off.
The Japanese wanted to take Corregidor because they wanted to get in and out of Manila Bay. The Axis just wants to stop the British from getting into the Med; they don't need to get in and out themselves - at least at first. So there is not much urgency.
Subs can get in and out - they did that throughout the war. That's how German subs showed up in the Med and Italian subs showed up in the Atlantic.
So a Spanish alliance plus a moderate amount of air power neutralizes Gibraltar and over time shuts the British out of the Western Med.
2. Malta is a very different situation. Again, it is not essential to "take" it quickly only to neutralize it and prevent it from interfering with merchant shipping to NA. This can be done with air power and the Italian navy. The RN can sortie out of Alexandria but it's a long way to Malta and with decent recon they will be expected. With Axis control of the air, they will not likely risk loss of key units and they certainly won't want to tie up at the dock in Valletta.
It would be fairly easy in 1940 - at a time when some writers suggest that the British themselves considered Malta itself to be indefensible - to land in Gozo and build up there. After the northern part of the main island is softened up with artillery and bombing, a virtual unopposed landing is plausible. This is almost more like a river crossing than a true amphibious assault. The attack would be a very short boat ride and a landing with supporting artillery from the opposite shore. So a Tarawa style conflict is not essential to success.
Meanwhile, the island is cut off from resupply and the British are figuring out how to replenish ammunition, replace equipment, and feed 250,000 people. Like the Japanese, they may try to bring in supplies with destroyers (but they are already getting short on destroyers) or subs (but tonnage is limited and this takes subs out of the shipping interdiction equation).
3. Sea power is formidable but by the summer of 1940 (after the Norway campaign) it was becoming clear that naval units are very vulnerable in situations where the enemy has undisputed control of the air. This is especially true of naval vessels tied up at docks or anchored in harbors.
4. Of course all of this means that substantial air units cannot be committed by the Axis to the Battle of Britain but that was a crazy idea anyhow. It is true that this strategy frees up RAF units but logistical limits on Gibraltar and Malta as well as the difficulty of shuttling planes in and out puts the RAF at a disadvantage in these two venues. Of course, if the RAF wants to go "all in" and essentially fight the Battle of Britain from bases in Gibraltar and Malta, the Axis would probably be happy to accommodate them.

 

[McPherson]

1. Gibraltar - The Axis doesn't have to be in any rush to take it. Once the airfield and the harbor become untenable, then the Axis can use its own air power, artillery and, if necessary, mines to make it very hard for the British to get in and out of the Western Med. And in 1940, it doesn't take enormous air resources to shut down the airfield and harbor. I saw one story which indicated that the Germans operated air units out of Seville during the Spanish Civil War. There were also airfields in Spanish Morocco - It think that is how Franco got back home. And we are not talking about fields that can land a 747. Many of the fields used during the Battle of Britain look like smoothed over Rugby fields. Once air superiority is achieved, it is still possible for the RN to pass through the straits but as air power builds up in the area, it becomes riskier and riskier. A gradual but steady build up at Tarifa will ultimately close it off.

Six months hung up on Gibraltar? How is that short war timetable, Berlin Maniac? NTG? Stalin is eyeing Ploesti? Are you sure you want to waste 100,000 Germans down there in Spain when the British are bombing the beef jerky out of them from unreachable Morocco?

The Japanese wanted to take Corregidor because they wanted to get in and out of Manila Bay. The Axis just wants to stop the British from getting into the Med; they don't need to get in and out themselves - at least at first. So there is not much urgency.

You really don't know anything about the Pacific War?

Work by McPherson for ....Those Marvelous Tin Fish: The Great Torpedo Scandal Avoided. Current contributor.

Subs can get in and out - they did that throughout the war. That's how German subs showed up in the Med and Italian subs showed up in the Atlantic.

They cannot FIGHT in that current.

So a Spanish alliance plus a moderate amount of air power neutralizes Gibraltar and over time shuts the British out of the Western Med.

Wrong. See previous evidence.

2. Malta is a very different situation. Again, it is not essential to "take" it quickly only to neutralize it and prevent it from interfering with merchant shipping to NA. This can be done with air power and the Italian navy. The RN can sortie out of Alexandria but it's a long way to Malta and with decent recon they will be expected. With Axis control of the air, they will not likely risk loss of key units and they certainly won't want to tie up at the dock in Valletta.

Wrong. See previous evidence.

It would be fairly easy in 1940 - at a time when some writers suggest that the British themselves considered Malta itself to be indefensible - to land in Gozo and build up there. After the northern part of the main island is softened up with artillery and bombing, a virtual unopposed landing is plausible. This is almost more like a river crossing than a true amphibious assault. The attack would be a very short boat ride and a landing with supporting artillery from the opposite shore. So a Tarawa style conflict is not essential to success.
Meanwhile, the island is cut off from resupply and the British are figuring out how to replenish ammunition, replace equipment, and feed 250,000 people. Like the Japanese, they may try to bring in supplies with destroyers (but they are already getting short on destroyers) or subs (but tonnage is limited and this takes subs out of the shipping interdiction equation).

Wrong. Landing in surf on a pebble shelf (Dieppe sound familiar?) is not at all a "river crossing" which incidentally is not all that easy against even light defenses (Rapido).

Tarawa was THIS.

Slugging It Out In Tarawa Lagoon | Defense Media Network

You have to see it to believe how hard it was to get ashore.

3. Sea power is formidable but by the summer of 1940 (after the Norway campaign) it was becoming clear that naval units are very vulnerable in situations where the enemy has undisputed control of the air. This is especially true of naval vessels tied up at docks or anchored in harbors.

Malta Air battle - Spitfire MkV on USS Wasp prior to

Depends on the Navy involved.

4. Of course all of this means that substantial air units cannot be committed by the Axis to the Battle of Britain but that was a crazy idea anyhow. It is true that this strategy frees up RAF units but logistical limits on Gibraltar and Malta as well as the difficulty of shuttling planes in and out puts the RAF at a disadvantage in these two venues. Of course, if the RAF wants to go "all in" and essentially fight the Battle of Britain from bases in Gibraltar and Malta, the Axis would probably be happy to accommodate them.

Where would the British love to whittle Fatso's flkyguys down to size?

 

[Athelstane]

1. Gibraltar is supplied from the sea and the opposite shore is subject to naval assault. SEAPOWER beats landpower in that geography setup.

If Franco had REALLY wanted Gibraltar, and was willing to take it regardless of casualties, I don't think that even the entire Royal Navy could have stopped him.

Franco, wisely, did not want it that badly.

 

[McPherson]

If Franco had REALLY wanted Gibraltar, and was willing to take it regardless of casualties, I don't think that even the entire Royal Navy could have stopped him.

Franco, wisely, did not want it that badly.

Gibraltar, close up, is an interesting tactical problem.

You do not see the WWII mine-belt or the fortified line north of the runway, or the artillery positions in the rock itself.

The only way to take it, is by amphibious assault....

Brexit: Everything to Know About the Threat to Gibraltar ...

... from the southeast. It would be like Iwo Jima, only with incompetent German infantry trying to neutralize that rock.

 

[sonofpegasus]

If Franco Attacked Gibraltar, there is every possibility that Cadiz, Malaga, Taragona, Valencia, Barcalona, would all have a surprise visit from the RN. A few Dozen 15" shells into the docks with an open broadcast that Franco was willing to Sacrifice the lives of Andalusians and Catalans whilst he skulked in Madrid with his Nazis friends, could well result in a new civil war! El Ferrol naval base could also be vulnerable especially to the FAA. Though I am not saying that either Gibraltar or Malta cannot be captured I am my self convinced that in the conditions prevailing at the time that it would be Pyrrhic victory at best.

 

[Athelstane]

The only way to take it, is by amphibious assault....

I don't see how that follows at all. It's a peninsula, not an island. No matter how many landmines it has.

It just depends on how much resources and dead bodies Franco wants to throw into it. The Brits only had 16,000 men there.

That said, given the state of the Spanish Army in 1940, it would take them longer, and cost more blood, than it would have for the Germans. 50,000 casualties, easy. The economic costs, of course, would have been catastrophic.

 

[McPherson]

I don't see how that follows at all. It's a peninsula, not an island. No matter how many landmines it has.

It just depends on how much resources and dead bodies Franco wants to throw into it. The Brits only had 16,000 men there.

That said, given the state of the Spanish Army in 1940, it would take them longer, and cost more blood, than it would have for the Germans. 50,000 casualties, easy. The economic costs, of course, would have been catastrophic.

You have to dig the British off that rock. Look at the terrain faces and imagine howitzers, mortars and machine guns on it. Actually, given what rough customers the tercios turned out to be in the Spanish Civil War, don't be too sure they would not do better than the Feldgrau at the job.

 

[Athelstane]

Actually, given what rough customers the tercios turned out to be in the Spanish Civil War, don't be too sure they would not do better than the Feldgrau at the job.

Or, come to that, the Blue Division's performance on the Eastern Front.

But it's not the Spanish soldier's fighting prowess and courage that I had in mind, but the state of his weaponry and logistics.

 

[Fulton 44]

1. Again, I am not assuming it has to be "taken". The goal is to shut the entrance to the Western Med. Gibraltar can be neutralized from the air - the airfield is small and vulnerable to bombing as is the harbor. Once air and naval units are gone, you are left with the Rock which can be bombed and subject to artillery duels. Over time, supplies run low. The British are not like the Japanese - they do not fight to the last man (see what happened at Singapore). Resupply becomes difficult as air power is built up in southern Spain and Spanish Morocco. Subs can be deployed outside the straits to complicate things and naval mines can make access to the harbor risky. At some point, resupply becomes impossible and then it is a matter of time. No rush. Once it is neutralized and air power in southern Spain is built up, it becomes difficult and risky for the RN to run the gauntlet in and out of the Med.
2. It is possible that, with Spain's entry into the war, Churchill looks back at history and decides that the path to victory is a "Peninsula Campaign" as in the Napoleonic wars. There may be British landings in Spanish Morocco, southern Spain and even an attempt to "relieve" Gibraltar by breaking the siege. This results in a whole different pattern of war - the British versus the Spanish, Italians and Germans fighting a land war in Spain. For the Axis this is a much better place to fight the UK on land than crossing the Channel or fighting in the Eastern Sahara desert. The British have tough problems landing, achieving lodgments in depth and then resupplying tenuous positions - all the time trying to resupply Gibraltar and Malta. Air support for the invasion is entirely based on carriers. The RN and merchant shipping are stretched. The result may be a series of "beached whales" requiring evacuation. All through this the Axis builds up land based air power in Spain. And the British resources expended on the effort are not available for the Egypt front. If the British landings turn into a disaster, this could be the prologue to a fall of the government (as in Norway) and negotiations.

 

[Xavier]

Gibraltar, close up, is an interesting tactical problem.
...
The only way to take it, is by amphibious assault....

... from the southeast. It would be like Iwo Jima, only with incompetent German infantry trying to neutralize that rock.

Hmm, it would doubtlessly be a bad idea to actually assault the rock, but as a thought exercice, imagining for a minute that I am a German general tasked with taking Gibraltar and given full carte blanche, my initial response would be "Are you nuts, I am not storming that place!"

First choice would be to get as much 15cm & 21cm howitzers/mortars up there as I can, along with heavier guns and keep up a continuous bombardment to make the airstrip and port unusable. As there will probably still be nightly resupply attempts with destroyers and light cruisers, I'd have bombers drop as many sea mines as I can get my hands on. Then, wait for them to surrender, hopefully. In the meantime, build up airstrips, as I will probably need something to chase of some rather heavy-handed relief attempts by the RN, so I will need fighters to chase off carrier aircraft and Stuka's and Ju-88's to attack the ships. Preparations included this would probably take no less than a year, possibly quite a bit longer, so....expensive, but at least force H is gone from Gibraltar.

If explicitly ordered to take Gibraltar by a certain date, no matter the cost....
Step 1: retreat to a private room, close the door, curse loudly, drink a full bottle of Riesling, curse again.
Step 2: order tens of thousands of body bags and blanco death notices for the family members of those who will perish in the attempt.
Step 3: see the siege option above, hoping that the bombardments and Stuka's can take out as many of the 9.2" & 6" guns as possible
Step 4: have the Regia Marina bombard the crap out of the rock with its battleships, adding heavy & light cruisers once some coastal batteries have been silenced
Step 5: while al this is going on, old school sapping, Vauban style. Far from perfect, but with that huge rock providing an excellent artillery platform it is the only way you even have a chance at getting infantry close to it before your assault.

The actual assault would essentially be on all sides at once in the hope that the defenders won't have enough guns for all the targets:
- Infantry, supported by tanks at the northern side, with support from field guns from as close as possible in an attempt to silence some British positions on top of the rock.
- Paratroopers, both at the airstrip and the flatter platteau near the South, if possible with gliders for extra equipment, but if the British think of that option the gliders won't work (wooden poles connected by barbed wire, covered with a few MG positions are all you need to turn a glider assault in a massacre, something that the defenders of Eben Emael didn't consider) WWII parachutes aren't very steerable (or even at all), so there would unfortunately not be as many paras as desired for fear that to many end up right in the middle of British positions or even in the water.
- A landing at the eastern side of the airstrip, which appears to be the only real beach in all of Gibraltar, unfortunately within full range of every Bren, Vickers, 2" & 3" mortar there is at the Northern end of the rock, so hopefully the land assault will keep most of those busy.
- Another landing at the beach halfway along the eastern side, at the foot of a massive, steep, slope, so only if I can find some troops that won't be missed, like Italian black shirts maybe, as casualties will be atrocious here.
- A Pointe du Hoc style assault at the southern & south-eastern side along the cliffs, with rocket powered rope ladders.
- A massive presence of the Regia Marina, with destroyers closing in to point blanc range to support the landings, even at the cost of losing a few of them if necessary.

Eh, honestly, even if an ASB gave a bunch of LCVP's & LST's, along with a perfect copy of Gibraltar to practice on, I am far from certain it would work. That bloody rock is huuuge and as long as you don't control the top of it, the defenders can keep raining down fire while you have to fight your way uphill. The first assault wave is essentially doing a suicide attack. Pyrrhic victory at best, abysmal failure at the worst. Maybe if the defenders are asleep or unusually light on ammo?

 

[Deleted member 94680]

So this all depends on the Spanish joining the Axis*? What changes ITTL to make that happen? What do the Nazis do differently to make Franco join the cause? Or did I miss it?

*I'm ignoring the handwaved assumption of better than OTL anti-shipping ability as that’s been done to death.

 

[Athelstane]

So this all depends on the Spanish joining the Axis*? What changes ITTL to make that happen? What do the Nazis do differently to make Franco join the cause? Or did I miss it?

*I'm ignoring the handwaved assumption of better than OTL anti-shipping ability as that’s been done to death.

Not COMPLETELY impossible for the Axis to take Gibraltar with a neutral Spain, but it would be one hell of a lot harder.

Obviously, peeps are focusing on Spain centered strategies because it makes it easier (though still not easy).

 

[Fulton 44]

So this all depends on the Spanish joining the Axis*? What changes ITTL to make that happen? What do the Nazis do differently to make Franco join the cause? Or did I miss it?

*I'm ignoring the handwaved assumption of better than OTL anti-shipping ability as that’s been done to death.

Yes. Franco initially offered terms to Hitler (supply of food, award of territories, supply of military equipment) and Hitler declined. As the war continued, Franco became less enthusiastic. Admiral Canaris was sent to Spain to try to persuade him to enter the war but did the opposite.
The thread assumes that in June/July 1940, the Axis accepts Franco's terms and Spain enters the war on the Axis side. This has costs in terms of material and food and will likely alienate the Vichy government (Franco wanted territory at their expense).

 

[Deleted member 94680]

The thread assumes that in June/July 1940, the Axis accepts Franco's terms and Spain enters the war on the Axis side. This has costs in terms of material and food and will likely alienate the Vichy government (Franco wanted territory at their expense).

You know it’s widely assumed Franco asked for territory and such a large amount of supplies because he knew the Germans would refuse? He wanted to appear keen, but didn’t want to actually expose his country to Royal Navy blockade and possible landings. Not enough changes here IMHO for it to be plausible that he would accept.

 

[McPherson]

Eh, honestly, even if an ASB gave a bunch of LCVP's & LST's, along with a perfect copy of Gibraltar to practice on, I am far from certain it would work. That bloody rock is huuuge and as long as you don't control the top of it, the defenders can keep raining down fire while you have to fight your way uphill. The first assault wave is essentially doing a suicide attack. Pyrrhic victory at best, abysmal failure at the worst. Maybe if the defenders are asleep or unusually light on ammo?

Raising the Flag on Iwo Jima

BEST infantry in the world at the time. That is what Gibraltar would take.

 

[hopper2cool]

Why do.people think all the Axis, Fascist, or even vaguely slightly leaning towards Nazi Germany (or against the Allied countries) are chomping at the bit to help Hitler?
In real life all the Axis countries had their own goals. There was a lot of delaying and half assimg. Now IF Unmentionable Sea Mammal worked I would expect Spain to pull a "Turkey" and declare war when the Wehrmacht had captured George VI and killed Churchill but not much before that.
I just find the idea that the Axis is closer than the Commonwealth and all acknowledge Germany as the head to be weird.

 

[Athelstane]

You know it’s widely assumed Franco asked for territory and such a large amount of supplies because he knew the Germans would refuse? He wanted to appear keen, but didn’t want to actually expose his country to Royal Navy blockade and possible landings. Not enough changes here IMHO for it to be plausible that he would accept.

It's a little difficult to make out just exactly what Franco was angling at since there were only six people present in the meeting between Franco and Hitler, and their accounts diverge (and none are wholly complete). But scholarship has been developing the argument that "Franco shrewdness" was at work is to some degree a product of postwar narrative trimming by both Franco and Anglo-American official efforts (starting with Churchill's controversial Commons speech in 1944) to bring Spain into the Western fold. Given what we have of some of the related correspondence of Franco and Suner, it seems plausible that Franco actually thought he had a real shot at obtaining Morocco and part of Algeria from Hitler (at the price of only a last minute entry into the war), and was disappointed with the realization that Hitler had apparently concluded that he could get a better deal from Petain, whom Hitler had decided was more valuable to the German war effort than Franco was. What Franco was demanding would result in the collapse of Vichy, and the defection of its entire overseas empire (and related military forces) to Free France and Britain, and nothing Franco could offer could really compensate for the loss of all that (especially once his massive needs for military and economic aid were added to the bill).

It could only have underlined Hitler's emerging decision that Franco made such an unimpressive show at Hendaye. Keitel noted that the rifles of Franco's guard of honor were so rusted as to be totally unusable, and Franco's train lurched violently into the Hendaye train station, almost heaving Franco head-first into the platform.

Of course, it could also be that Franco's mind was working in more than one track.

 

[Athelstane]

Why do.people think all the Axis, Fascist, or even vaguely slightly leaning towards Nazi Germany (or against the Allied countries) are chomping at the bit to help Hitler?
In real life all the Axis countries had their own goals. There was a lot of delaying and half assimg. Now IF Unmentionable Sea Mammal worked I would expect Spain to pull a "Turkey" and declare war when the Wehrmacht had captured George VI and killed Churchill but not much before that.
I just find the idea that the Axis is closer than the Commonwealth and all acknowledge Germany as the head to be weird.

Probably because it's too easy to day to assume that fascists were an undifferentiated glob.

Which doesn't even get to the reality that, fundamentally, Franco was not even a fascist on a reasonable contemporary definition (though fascists were certainly part of his civil war and ruling coalition, and obviously, he had fascist foreign allies, too). He was really an old-fashioned caudillo that harkened back to a 19th century tradition, not a 1930's one.

It does seem clear that, while Franco was certainly grateful for Hitler's aid during the civil war, he was more or less pursuing, at best, a Turkish policy of jumping into the war at the last minute, to minimize his risk and maximize his gain (i.e., Morocco, western Algeria, and Rousillon), since he knew that, even more than the Turks, he was playing a weak hand. I like to say that İnönü would only have brought Turkey into the war once the Wehrmacht was on the Hindu Kush and the Ruwenzori, and Franco seems to have been of basically the same mindset.

 

[Fulton 44]

Probably because it's too easy to day to assume that fascists were an undifferentiated glob.

Which doesn't even get to the reality that, fundamentally, Franco was not even a fascist on a reasonable contemporary definition (though fascists were certainly part of his civil war and ruling coalition, and obviously, he had fascist foreign allies, too). He was really an old-fashioned caudillo that harkened back to a 19th century tradition, not a 1930's one.

It does seem clear that, while Franco was certainly grateful for Hitler's aid during the civil war, he was more or less pursuing, at best, a Turkish policy of jumping into the war at the last minute, to minimize his risk and maximize his gain (i.e., Morocco, western Algeria, and Rousillon), since he knew that, even more than the Turks, he was playing a weak hand. I like to say that İnönü would only have brought Turkey into the war once the Wehrmacht was on the Hindu Kush and the Ruwenzori, and Franco seems to have been of basically the same mindset.

I think that the hardest part of the strategy I lay out is getting into an alliance with Franco and its possible impact on the relationship with the Vichy French. In WW1 the allies enticed the Italians to enter the war by entering into the secret Treaty of London promising them all sorts of goodies and then reneged on some of the promises at Versailles.
I suppose a secret treaty could be floated giving Franco part of French Morocco at the "end of the war" and at that point the French could be compensated with British territories elsewhere.
But getting Spain in without tipping the rickety applecart with France is definitely the biggest challenge here.
I stand by my conclusion that with Spain in, neutralizing Gibraltar is a piece of cake and taking it is just a matter of time.