Did NapI have any opportunity at Waterloo?

POD: Ney doesn't recall the Ist Corp during the battle of Ligny (june 16th). The prussian defeat is greater than IOTL, and without a Napoleon who curses Ney for the recall of the Ist Corp, Grouchy doesn't fear to break the ordered pursuit of the Prussians, to rescue the Emperor at Waterloo when he heard the battle.

This isn't a bad idea, but the biggest problem with it is that too big a French victory at Ligny almost certainly means there's no Waterloo. Wellington only firmly decided to fight at Waterloo after visiting the Prussians on the evening of the 15th and seeing for himself the condition of the Prussian army and extracting a promise from Blucher that the Prussians were still capable of fighting and would continue to support the British. If the Prussians are not just defeated but effectively destroyed so they are incapable of further combat then Wellington would almost certainly avoid battle by retreating north of Brussels and gathering up his outlying detachments and waiting until the Austrians or Russians get close enough to force Napoleon to divert forces.

This goes double incidentally if Blucher is killed or captured during alt-Ligny (he almost was OTL - he was actually ridden over by French cavalry who didn't recognise him) and command falls to Gneisenau who had a serious dislike and distrust for the British in general and Wellington in particular.

A more vigorous pursuit by Grouchy is also a possibility, but runs into the problem that the weather on the 17th was absolutely foul, and it would be difficult to overhaul the Prussians on roads that had been thoroughly churned up by the Prussian retreat (not to mention the usual difficulties of fighting a black powder battle in a thunderstorm). The end result is probably just that the battle of Wavre gets fought a few hours earlier, with a similar result.

One possible alternative to help Napoleon. The force he sent with Grouchy was both too large (to keep in contact with the Prussian rearguard and confirm which direction they were moving in) and too small (to defeat the Prussians if they stood and fought, or prevent them linking up with Wellington). Instead of sending Grouchy off with two infantry and two cavalry corps, send off just one cavalry corps with all the available horse artillery. This will stand a better chance of staying in contact with the Prussians and harrassing them enough to disrupt any concentration, while giving Napoleon an extra 30,000 or so infantry and 5,000 or so cavalry for Waterloo, adjusting his position from a slight numerical advantage (72,000 vs. 69,000) to a decisive one (100,000+ vs. 69,000). If he can't win in these circumstances then he really should retire.
 
I read a book from a swedish author about the entire campaign. What basically happened from the start was Napoleon sending out wauge orders and his subordinates missunderstanding. The march into Belgium was troubled by units getting into the way of eachother etc. When Napoleon fought at Ligny and Ney faced Wellington there was full corps that marched between the two and was ordered and counterordered so that it didnt play a part in either battle.

The weather during the entire campaign wasnt in Napoleons favour either and there was french arty guns that never got into action
 
Even if he could have won the battle all of Europe was united against him. There was no real chance he could remain in power.


Sure,

but Napoleon could have won the first campagin so clear, that he could have the chance for a negotiation peace...

with some luck he crush the prussians and with this and without sleeping he could destroy wellingtons army... with this the russians and austrians think twice, if he stay at the defence.....

but i agree - with a long war, france and napoleon are doomed.

But at Waterloo/QuatreBras he had some chances to beat his enemies big way...
 
No one trusts Napoleon. No one going to make a peace with him that isn't some form of "Okay, this time we're making sure he can't escape."
 
Napoleon will lose long before that happens.

I am not sure, but I heard at a few moments of history of her, Britain was in SERIOUS monetary problems. like, close to bankrupt.

WW2 and Napoleonic wars, by example.

if its true, some more wartime for Britain.. and she may see her economy collapse.
 
I am not sure, but I heard at a few moments of history of her, Britain was in SERIOUS monetary problems. like, close to bankrupt.

WW2 and Napoleonic wars, by example.

if its true, some more wartime for Britain.. and she may see her economy collapse.

From the Rise and Fall of the Great Powers:

"[T]he overall trend was clear: total exports of British produce rose from 31.7 million pounds (1794-1796) to 37.5 million (1804-1806) to 44.4 million (1814-1816)."

In terms of government bankruptcy, which is perhaps more relevant:

"Customs and exise receipts, for example, jumped from 13.5 million pounds (1793) to 44.8 million (15), while the yield from the new income and property taxes rose from 14.6 million in the final year of the war. In fact, between 1793 and 1815 the British government secured the staggering sum of 1.217 billion pounds from direct and indirect taxes, and proceeded to raise a further 440 million poudns in loans from the money markets without exhausting its credit - to the amazement of the more fiscally conservative Napoleon."

To put that amount of borrowing in perspective: The average percentage of expenditure in the form of loans (for 1688-1815) has been one third of the total, here it is 26.6%.

While British has spent overwhelmingly more on the Napoleonic wars than all the other wars in that period put together, it is also economically stronger than ever.

It can keep going long enough to finance Napoleon's end.

It wouldn't be outside the reach of possibility for the Napoleonic Wars to be more burdensome. But with a POD in 1815, that won't happen to the extent necessary to exhaust Britain or even meaningfully weaken said state.

None of this however changes that the battle of Waterloo could be won, one way or another. Napoleon just can't do much more than that from an exhausted France and with very hostile enemies.
 
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IOTL, when the Ist corp arrived, it was first taken for ennemy as its arrival was planned later.
If the corp isn't recalled, is there a possibility for Pirch to take advantage of the momentaneous confusion and delay the outflanking maneuver, permitting to Blucher to sent reserves and to retreat in safety?
 
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