Did Mussolini cost Hitler the war?

Leaving aside the Divisions in Africa and instead thinking of those German Divisions in the Balkans what are the chances of them being added to army group north?
As far as ive read these extra divisions would most likely go to army group south had they been no Balkan campaign.

I don't know, AGN was the weakest of the three groups so it would have made the most sense to give them any additional resources.

However, if its just infantry formations going to them it doesn't materially improve the situation overall... AGN had enough infantry divisions for their sector and their objectives, they desperately needed a third panzer corps to maintain the momentum of their advance, so if Rommel's boys are off the table then you could probably expect the same result as otl (even with 6-8 additional full strength infantry divisions)
 

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I don't know, AGN was the weakest of the three groups so it would have made the most sense to give them any additional resources.

However, if its just infantry formations going to them it doesn't materially improve the situation overall... AGN had enough infantry divisions for their sector and their objectives, they desperately needed a third panzer corps to maintain the momentum of their advance, so if Rommel's boys are off the table then you could probably expect the same result as otl (even with 6-8 additional full strength infantry divisions)

Of the German mobile units that in any way participated in Operation Marita they were grouped at the onset of Barbarossa thus:
4th Panzer division back at AGC
5th Panzer division location unknown, fought at the later stages of Barbarossa in AGC
8th Panzer division back at AGN
9th Panzer division back at AGS
11th Panzer division back at AGS
12th Panzer division back at AGC
14th Panzer division back at AGS
16th Panzer division back at AGS
19th Panzer division back at AGC
16th Motorised division back at AGS
Grossdeustschland regiment back at AGC
LSAH back at AGS
SS-Reich back at AGC

for instance the 16th Panzer division didn't really participate in any fighting, instead it was grouped at the Bulgarian-Turkish border in case of Turkish intervention.

So all the German mobile divisons are more or less accounted for during Barbarossa either as already part of a existing Panzergruppe, or earmarked as reinforcments. The only German mobile divisions that were not participating in Barbarossa were those belonging to Rommels DAK.

However without an Operation Marita there will be less wear and tear on a few mobile divisons.
 
Of the German mobile units that in any way participated in Operation Marita they were grouped at the onset of Barbarossa thus:
4th Panzer division back at AGC
5th Panzer division location unknown, fought at the later stages of Barbarossa in AGC
8th Panzer division back at AGN
9th Panzer division back at AGS
11th Panzer division back at AGS
12th Panzer division back at AGC
14th Panzer division back at AGS
16th Panzer division back at AGS
19th Panzer division back at AGC
16th Motorised division back at AGS
Grossdeustschland regiment back at AGC
LSAH back at AGS
SS-Reich back at AGC

for instance the 16th Panzer division didn't really participate in any fighting, instead it was grouped at the Bulgarian-Turkish border in case of Turkish intervention.

So all the German mobile divisons are more or less accounted for during Barbarossa either as already part of a existing Panzergruppe, or earmarked as reinforcments. The only German mobile divisions that were not participating in Barbarossa were those belonging to Rommels DAK.

However without an Operation Marita there will be less wear and tear on a few mobile divisons.

Some good information there.
 
Of the German mobile units that in any way participated in Operation Marita they were grouped at the onset of Barbarossa thus:
4th Panzer division back at AGC
5th Panzer division location unknown, fought at the later stages of Barbarossa in AGC
8th Panzer division back at AGN
9th Panzer division back at AGS
11th Panzer division back at AGS
12th Panzer division back at AGC
14th Panzer division back at AGS
16th Panzer division back at AGS
19th Panzer division back at AGC
16th Motorised division back at AGS
Grossdeustschland regiment back at AGC
LSAH back at AGS
SS-Reich back at AGC

for instance the 16th Panzer division didn't really participate in any fighting, instead it was grouped at the Bulgarian-Turkish border in case of Turkish intervention.

So all the German mobile divisons are more or less accounted for during Barbarossa either as already part of a existing Panzergruppe, or earmarked as reinforcments. The only German mobile divisions that were not participating in Barbarossa were those belonging to Rommels DAK.

However without an Operation Marita there will be less wear and tear on a few mobile divisons.

Albert Seaton ("The Russo-German War") claims that the Germans initially had 2 Panzer, 2 Motorized and 24 infantry divisions in reserve at the start of Barbarossa, but that those divisions were quickly fed into the battle "in the first few weeks of fighting" and no substantial mobile reserves were held after that.

That would square with a couple of panzer divisions not being ready for the kickoff of the offensive because of the Balkan adventure, but joining the fighting as soon as they finished essential maintenance. So figure that in the absence of Balkan and North African commitments, the Germans might have

(a) The divisions sent to North Africa
(b) Any replacements sent to North Africa between start of German intervention there in Feb 1941 and start of Barbarossa
(c) Any additional replacements sent to North Africa rather than the eastern front during the course of Barbarossa.
(d) Use of a couple of panzer divisions and a couple of motorized divisions for an undetermined period at the beginning of Barbarossa (probably no more than a couple of weeks) where those divisions historically weren't available.

Does anyone have figures on how many replacement tanks, trucks etc the Germans sent to North Africa in the period before the kickoff of Barbarossa? Educated wild-guess: Probably less than a division's worth, but as noted that's a wild guess. One Internet source says approximately 48 tanks. It would be interesting to see how many replacement tanks and trucks it took to keep those two German divisions in North Africa at two divisions, especially once the Allies started hitting the Axis supply lines.

BTW: In November 1941 the Germans pulled a rather major air group out of the eastern front and sent it to North Africa to counter a British offensive there.
 
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BTW: The Germans started Barbarossa with a three-month supply of gas and a two-month supply of replacement tires. The replacement tires were probably constrained by a shortage of rubber, since the Germans were still gearing up synthetic rubber production and natural rubber had to be essentially smuggled through the Soviet Union.

A couple of little known facts: the Soviet Union was supplying the Germans with natural rubber prior to Barbarossa. As a matter of fact the invasion was timed to occur after a train with a large load of natural rubber crossed the frontier. Also, the Soviets were buying oil from the US and transferring it to the Germans as part of the economic cooperation.
 
Another little side-note: The Italians were buying oil for their navy from the Soviets up until Mussolini sent a considerable amount of war material to the Finns for the Winter War (most of it held up by the Germans until after the Winter War ended). The Soviets then took umbrage and cut the Italians off, at least for a while. This all screwed with the Italians at multiple levels. First, they didn't have enough equipment for themselves, much less sending sort-of modern warplanes to the Finns. Second, the Soviet embargo cut into any Italian attempt to stockpile oil for the navy, and lack of oil was a major reason the Italian surface fleet didn't do much after the first little bit of the war.

Yeah, that's off topic, but an interesting little side-note, and it does illustrate the extent to which Mussolini valued prestige over the tangible.
 
Of the German mobile units that in any way participated in Operation Marita they were grouped at the onset of Barbarossa thus:
4th Panzer division back at AGC
5th Panzer division location unknown, fought at the later stages of Barbarossa in AGC
8th Panzer division back at AGN
9th Panzer division back at AGS
11th Panzer division back at AGS
12th Panzer division back at AGC
14th Panzer division back at AGS
16th Panzer division back at AGS
19th Panzer division back at AGC
16th Motorised division back at AGS
Grossdeustschland regiment back at AGC
LSAH back at AGS
SS-Reich back at AGC

for instance the 16th Panzer division didn't really participate in any fighting, instead it was grouped at the Bulgarian-Turkish border in case of Turkish intervention.

So all the German mobile divisons are more or less accounted for during Barbarossa either as already part of a existing Panzergruppe, or earmarked as reinforcments. The only German mobile divisions that were not participating in Barbarossa were those belonging to Rommels DAK.

However without an Operation Marita there will be less wear and tear on a few mobile divisons.

Any figures on tank and aircraft loses from the Balkan campaign and wear and tear figures?
 

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Albert Seaton ("The Russo-German War") claims that the Germans initially had 2 Panzer, 2 Motorized and 24 infantry divisions in reserve at the start of Barbarossa, but that those divisions were quickly fed into the battle "in the first few weeks of fighting" and no substantial mobile reserves were held after that.

Depends upon what Seaton means by 'in reserve'. Yes several of the divisions participating in Marita were kept in reserve, but take for instance the LSAH, it was not engaged in combat until a June 28th, little less then a week after the launch of Barbarossa.

Every mobile divison that took part in Marita was more or less within a week after the launch of Barbarossa engaged in combat, with the exception of 5th Panzer division, that seems devoured by the ground on June 22nd, most perturbatory.

That would square with a couple of panzer divisions not being ready for the kickoff of the offensive because of the Balkan adventure, but joining the fighting as soon as they finished essential maintenance. So figure that in the absence of Balkan and North African commitments, the Germans might have

(a) The divisions sent to North Africa
(b) Any replacements sent to North Africa between start of German intervention there in Feb 1941 and start of Barbarossa
(c) Any additional replacements sent to North Africa rather than the eastern front during the course of Barbarossa.
(d) Use of a couple of panzer divisions and a couple of motorized divisions for an undetermined period at the beginning of Barbarossa (probably no more than a couple of weeks) where those divisions historically weren't available.

My guess would be (d)
There was not enough logistical infrastructure to support more mobile troops in North Africa. Hell there was not enough logistical infrastructure to support the mobile troops already present.
 

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Any figures on tank and aircraft loses from the Balkan campaign and wear and tear figures?

Compared to the wear and tear during Barbarossa, it was negliable. It took between one to two weeks for those units fully involved in Marita (like LSAH) to be at full combat effectivness. Most of the German vehicles lost during Marita was due to mechanical malfunctions, they were sent back to the repair shops and back in functional condition in at most a week. German vehicles destroyed in combat was few, I don't have exact numbers on hand.

Losses of German aircrafts on the other hand was heavier, particular of Ju-52 transports during Operaton Merkur, but also of Ju-87 and medium bombers. But the losses were in no way crippling. About 370 aircrafts alltogether were lost during Merkur. Unfortunatly I have no information about the losses suffered during Marita.
 
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