Did Britain fucked up when they didn't alied themselves with Germany in the late 19th century?

The problem for London was the following:
1. Germany didnt want to ally Britain. London would have needed a german alliance against the franco-russian threat of her colonial empire - mostly from the side of russia but they had their issues with france as well. Germany was perfectly unwilling to go to war with both France and Russia fot british colonial interest.
2. Britain too was not happy about the prospect of being drawn to a war ower austrian balkan entanglements (the irony...)
3. London facing a franco russian alliance alone - or only with Japan - is a very bleak prospect for the british. That would have been a true world war: fighting the russians in China, Persia and they feared India, the french all ower Africa and in SE Asia.
4. Britain could make an agreement with both France and Russia which would prevent 3. from happening and secure the Empire.

As long as all of the above held true there is really no other way for London to go then to join the entente. Its not guaranteed but by far the most likely outcome.
 

Skallagrim

Banned
Did Britain make an error by not allying with Germany in the late 19th century? From the British perspective at the time: no, because there was no compelling reason to ally with Germany, and there were several reasons not to do it. Looking back at the history of the World Wars, I can (and would) however defend the position that if Britain had allied with Germany, this could have been in Britain's favour. Consider, first of all, that the situation is as follows:


-- Britain's commitment to "balance of powers" has been grossly overstated by many historians, who all suffer from some pretty dreadful confirmation bias. Britain did clearly prefer such a balance, but was far from eleveated above some nice opportunism. If at any point it had really seemed like ganging up with Germany would be to Britain's clear benefit, the "balance" could've buggered right off.

-- Moreover, it wasn't at all clear that Germany was absolutely the "stronger" party that Britain had to side against. Nor was France by definition the natural ally. There was a very active (and even pretty duplicitous and manipulative) Francophile element in the British leadership, but that was a minority. Most Britons, as well as most British leaders, preferred moderate isolation and neutrality. Especially after Crimea. ("Britain should stay out of the continent's stupid wars.")

-- Germany itself, though, made things difficult. Wilhelm II was an oaf. Not the psychopathic tyrant he's sometimes painted to be, but a man without any decent feeling for social or interpersonal relations and nuances. He pissed people off without intending it, and he often felt personally slighted by people who had done nothing to him. His foreign royal cousins weren't fond of him. Germany also insisted on colonialism, and on building an oceanic fleet. Both felt like threats to Britain. Not that Germany could win that race, but it indicated a certain intention.


All of this means that an Ango-German alliance in the late 19th century was certainly possible, but not necessarily likely. Germany's behaviour painted it as more of a "rising rival" than other powers, and Kaiser Willy II fucked up all diplomatic efforts again and again. Still, though, it ultimately took German violation of Belgium's neutrality to give the pro-French and anti-German elements in Britain's leadership the momentum needed to commit Britain to the side of France and Russia. This strongly suggests that an alternative, Anglo-German(-Austrian) alliance was not at all impossible in the late 19th century. There are some more facts to consider in that context:


-- Throughout the 19th century, Britain has been in a rivalry with Russia over influence in Asia. This rivalry was not always purely confrontational, the two powers occasionally colluded via diplomatic efforts, and there were successive treaties and agreements between them. The so-called 'Great Game' is widely held to have ended in 1895. It may at least be argued that after this point, Anglo-Russian co-operation in any major conflict would hardly be an incredible thing. But even before, the rivalry was winding down, and the right circumstances have brought Britain and Russia into a common pact.

-- There was likewise Anglo-French rivalry, resurging after the muted nature of the post-Napoleonic period. This culminated in the Fashoda Incident of 1898. After that, Britain and France made efforts to reach greater accord. This may be said to have culminated in the Entente Cordiale.

-- Germany was, for quite some time, planning its strategy around a "League of Three Emperors" between itself, Austria-Hungary, and Russia. This was chiefly because Bismarck really wanted to prevent Russia and France from ever being on the same side. The first League lasted from 1873 to 1878. A second one existed between 1881 and 1887 (having been renewed in 1884). In the end, the Germans let it lapse. Bismarck, despairing, salvaged what he could via the Reinsurance Treaty of 1887, but upon his dismissal as Chancellor in 1890, this wasn't renewed either.


Given these facts, if Anglo-French relations turned sour to such a degree that a conflict erupted in (most realistically) the period 1881-1887, it is realistic for Russia, Germany and Britain to be on one side (along with Austria-Hungary). Even though Willy II was an oaf, it's certainly not like Britain was somehow allergic to Germans or something. If a war with France broke out, and alliance with the Germans would be great. And if this happened in such a handy time-frame as to keep Russia from allying with France... so much the better!

Such a war would be over very swiftly, and this would be beneficial to a) everybody in general and b) the victors in particular. So we may therefore argue that this would have been better for Britain. There wouldn't be a whole generation dead in the trenches, the Empire wouldn't get a fatal blow, and Britain would just be better off in general. With a quick, overwhelming victory (probably leading to a firm but none-too-cruel peace), the chances of a second Great War would also be diminished. And without American involvement, the USA's take-over of absolute unquestioned supremacy among the world's great powers would also be a bit delayed. All in all, very good for Britain.

But allthis requires an engineered ATL situation where an Anglo-French conflict breaks out at the right time. Such a coflict didn't break out in OTL. If it had, the resulting timeline might well have worked out better for Britain than OTL did. But since it didn't, I really don't think we can argue that Britain "fucked up" by not allying with Germany.

(Britain did fuck up in joining the First World War. If Britain had just stayed out of that, all its rivals could have beaten each other bloody, while britain got out without a scratch. Allowing itself to be dragged into the mess was a clear error, and those who made that call can be blamed for that, because there were plenty of people around to warn them. They just didn't listen. But that's a post-1900 discussion.)
 
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(Britain did fuck up in joining the First World War. If Britain had just stayed out of that, all its rivals could have beaten each other bloody, while britain got out without a scratch. Allowing itself to be dragged into the mess was a clear error, and those who made that call can be blamed for that, because there were plenty of people around to warn them. They just didn't listen. But that's a post-1900 discussion.)
I agree wholeheartedly with most of your post ( Pretty much a drop the mic, this discussion is over). My impression is that Britain wanted Germany as an ally, but, as you said Germany 'made it difficult'.

But, the quoted part is debatable. Without British forces, France is smashed quickly, even allowing for German mistakes. Then Russia falls soon after. It may, or may not, be a short glorious war, but without Britain in the fight, it isn't going to be a long, drawn out fight to exhaustion. If it's a short war, France/Russia will lose territory (and some of it may be critically important, especially for France) but their core infrastructure will be intact. That slides a bit the longer the war, but it won't be utter destruction, and Germany will likely emerge in fine shape. Either way, it's a good possibility (if not probability) that it's better for Britain than OTL, so overall they did fook (can't believe the mods didn't come down on the language) up by joining, but it wouldn't result in the others beating themselves bloody (at least not to a bloody pulp, which may be putting words in your keyboard)
 

Skallagrim

Banned
But, the quoted part is debatable. Without British forces, France is smashed quickly, even allowing for German mistakes. Then Russia falls soon after. It may, or may not, be a short glorious war, but without Britain in the fight, it isn't going to be a long, drawn out fight to exhaustion. If it's a short war, France/Russia will lose territory (and some of it may be critically important, especially for France) but their core infrastructure will be intact. That slides a bit the longer the war, but it won't be utter destruction, and Germany will likely emerge in fine shape. Either way, it's a good possibility (if not probability) that it's better for Britain than OTL, so overall they did fook (can't believe the mods didn't come down on the language) up by joining, but it wouldn't result in the others beating themselves bloody (at least not to a bloody pulp, which may be putting words in your keyboard)
You're right. "Beating each other bloody" is an overstatement on my part. What I'm trying to convey is that "let's you and him fight" would serve British purposes just fine.
 
It wasn't like they had a really tough 20th century - they won both world wars and had a big role at the negotiating table for both.
Others have rebuffed you on this, but I have to pile on as your statement is so wrong.

Britain started the 20th century as the premier nation on Earth. The sun never set on their empire. They were the world's financial king. Manufacturing was amongst the world's top. By the end, they were an empire in name only, and they are basically a has-been in most departments.

My apologies to any Brits reading this, but there is no denying the empire endured a massive decline.
 
Why would Britain ally with Germany which was the strongest continental power and arguably the strongest land power in the world?

To prevent war? If anything having Britain as an ally would encourage them even more to pursue a more aggressive policy on the continent which makes a war more likely, a war in which Britain can not oppose Germany.

This makes a German victory in a general European war much more lilely due to free access to the world market. A German dominated Europe is a very bad news for Britain.
 
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Why would Britain ally with Germany which was the strongest continental power and arguably the strongest land power in the world?

To prevent war? Il anything having Britain as an ally would encourage them even more to pursue a more aggressive policy on the continent which makes a war more likely, a war in which Britain can not oppose Germany.

This makes a German victory in a general European war much more lilely due to free access to the world market. A German dominated Europe is a very bad news for Britain.
I've read that Britain initially didn't see Germany as the greatest threat. France was the traditional enemy # 1. However, as Skallagrim said, German diplomacy was pretty bad, and managed to drive Britain away, instead of getting along.
Germany was a huge trade partner, which should be factored in to the equation.
 
I've read that Britain initially didn't see Germany as the greatest threat. France was the traditional enemy # 1. However, as Skallagrim said, German diplomacy was pretty bad, and managed to drive Britain away, instead of getting along.
Germany was a huge trade partner, which should be factored in to the equation.
Fact of the matter is Britain had nothing to gain from ganging up on France together with Germany as France was significantly weaker than Germany at this point in time and also one of the two powers that could even hope to match Germany militarily.

What does Britain gain from strengthening Germany even further and basically making Europe a German playground? It just doesn't make sense for anyone nor did it at the time.
 
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Femto

Banned
Fact of the matter is Britain had nothing to gain from ganging up on France together with Germany as France was significantly weaker than Germany at this point in time and also one of the two powers that could even hope to match Germany militarily.

What does Britain gain from strengthening Germany even further and basically making Europe a German playground? It just doesn't make sense for anyone nor did it at the time.
Europe only becomes a German playground if the war happens. And if you delay the war enough then the fears about Russia would become the priority and Germany would require British assistance to keep their position in Central Europe.

The Anglo-German secret negotiations about the fate of the Portuguese African empire in OTL speak a lot about this perspective of a British/German agreement.
 
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With the possible exceptions of Spain and Portugal, the Second Reich was the least revanchist state in Europe. Like Britain (England), it was dominated by a single component (Prussia), and was broadly protestant with a large Catholic minority. It was a natural ally or a natural rival.
 
There is an argument to be made that Great Britain would have done better to keep out of inter-European conflicts. It was the wealth drain during World War 1 that led New York instead of London to become the financial capital of the world

WW1 sped that up maybe 20 years, at most. By WW1 the US passed GB as the largest economy in the world. It was only a matter of time before it replaced GB as the financial capital as it had the largest amount of capital out there.
 
WW1 sped that up maybe 20 years, at most. By WW1 the US passed GB as the largest economy in the world. It was only a matter of time before it replaced GB as the financial capital as it had the largest amount of capital out there.
The usa had already passed GB by 1900, the usa had a bigger economy then all of Europe by 1914
 
Others have rebuffed you on this, but I have to pile on as your statement is so wrong.

Britain started the 20th century as the premier nation on Earth. The sun never set on their empire. They were the world's financial king. Manufacturing was amongst the world's top. By the end, they were an empire in name only, and they are basically a has-been in most departments.

My apologies to any Brits reading this, but there is no denying the empire endured a massive decline.

If there are no world wars GB might still be the #2 power in 2020, but not #1. By 1900 the US was already starting to pass it up.
 
To keep the US out of the Pacific and with less strength. Keeping the semblance of a balance of power between the United States and Mexico is in Britain's best interests.

I can just see this when questions are asked in Parliament on why you are doing this . That maybe, possibly the US will pass them up generations from now. They are going to spend blood and treasure on something that may happen generations from now in a place 3,000 miles away instead of dealing with problems happening right now and right next door.
 
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