I don't. The founders of Israel wanted a state the whole time, regardless of what they said, and were willing to do things like blowing up the King David Hotel and exploiting Hajj Amin Husseini's stupidity to get it. The factors that led to it, such as the Arab Revolt, would still exist, as would the Zionist demand for a Jewish state. The crucial element is that without a Holocaust the Israeli state's founders are never seen as anything but terrorists and Israel gets seen as a seedy state from the start. Without Treblinka and Sobibor to justify it in a masterful example of correlation, blowing up the King David Hotel or something equivalent will end very poorly for the Haganah and Irgun.