Diary of the Doofus King II (1850 - )

I would lean towards Austria, followed by Russia and potentially Iberia.

How is Spain not the most unstable? After that whole mess in North America, and now in Asia, Spain is about ready to kick over, and die, but I see those other two as well.

Will we see the affects of the North Africa lakes on Africa, and Europe soon?
 
How is Spain not the most unstable? After that whole mess in North America, and now in Asia, Spain is about ready to kick over, and die, but I see those other two as well.

Will we see the affects of the North Africa lakes on Africa, and Europe soon?

Spain is Iberia
 
Russia started a bit early on Emancipation, maybe 5 years if I recall, after the assassination of Nicholas I brought Alexander II to the throne in his youth. However, Russia would still be the most backward country in Europe socially and economically. I'm assuming by the 1870's, Alexander II would be willing to support a permanent diet as he was in OTL but there were so many rebellious and anarchic groups in Russia that there is no way turmoil could be avoided.

There's also the fact that the Russians control a huge swath of the Islamic world, including the majority of the former Ottoman Empire, not to mention the vast swaths of territory it owns in China. Those two locations are prime spots where nationalist and religious sentiment could easily explode, on top of all the other social issues that Russia faces.

I'm also certain that Spain is extremely unstable, at the very least as unstable as it was OTL and most likely even more so because of the trouble it got into in America.
 
Yeah, Iberia (Spain-Portuguese Joint Monarchy) would be in a whole lot of chaos as well without the Liberal Revolution in those countries. However, there would be fewer nations providing a democratic example under my TL.

Yes, the French Revolution succeeded in a way but was replaced by the Bonaparte's whom would be even more powerful than the restored Bourbons. Economically, legally, etc, much of Europe would be better off but I suspect that politically, western and central Europe would take a step back from OTL. The absence of the efficient Prussian Empire leading Germany in favor of a continued Confederation of the Rhine would likely lead to some additional slowdowns in social evolution. Austria's refusal to implement the Dual Monarchy would ensure most of their subjects would be resentful. Poland does not get cut up in this scenario and probably would be stronger than Austria at this point but still fearful of Austria, Russia and France.

In this scenario, autocratic Kings remained in command throughout most of the continent (France and Spain and Portugal and Germany and Italy) and Britain would be less of an influence due to their isolation after losing the Napoleonic Wars, their brief Civil War, the after-war recession, losing Ireland and then the long reign of George V (OTL Duke of Cambridge).

There are plenty of competitors for worst run country and mostly likely to revolt.
 
1871

Vienna

Emperor Franz Joseph I of Austria had spent the past two decades attempting to shore up his expansive European domains so Austria may retain some semblance of equality with France and Russia. In 1848, he seized power from his imbecile Uncle with the old man was about to offer a massive dispersal of authority to the various Habsburg subject peoples. Franz Joseph nixed this and sent his secret police into the streets to hunt down dissidents. For the most part, he succeeded thought the Hungarians, Czechs, etc, largely proved...displeased...with their lack of autonomy and increasing centralization of the Habsburg domains.

Eternally backward, Austria never could catch up with the modernizing nations of France, Britain, the United States, even parts of the Confederation of the Rhine. Unlike Napoleon III or the late Alexander II, Franz Joseph refused to believe that technological and economic modernization must go hand in hand with social reform. Instead, Franz Joseph attempted to force the Hungarians, Poles, Czechs, Slovaks, etc, under his crown to speak German.

Bit by bit, the nation began to fall apart. The Slavic neighbors of Poland and Serbia quietly enjoyed Austria's revolutionary convulsions, encouraging it when they could. Many German states actively encouraged Austria's duchy to abandon the old order and join the Confederation, perhaps alongside Prussia. The latter had long been excluded from the Confederation to ensure it was under French control. Perhaps with Austria and Prussia...?

As his armies began to defect to various rebel groups, usually by ethnicity, there were fewer and fewer loyal forces to call upon. Franz Joseph's greatest advantage was that several peoples under the crown of St. Stephen did not want to be left to Hungarian domination and supported Austria, deeming Vienna the lesser to two evils. Armies clashed throughout the Empire, some resulting in Imperial victories, some in defeat.

Finally, the Emperor dispatched calls for aid to France and Russia. Humiliated, the Emperor awaited their response as to whether they would assist in preserving his own throne. The Poles and Balkan Slavic countries demanded that the European hegemony powers do nothing, let the old relic of a bygone age collapse under the weight of its incompetence and tyranny. However, neither power wanted central Europe to become a warzone. Both were well entrenched in colonial affairs and saw no advantage to allowing the Habsburg Empire to turn into a festering hole in the middle of Europe.

France and Russia, long the ascendant powers on the continent, had learned over the years that neither would overly involve themselves into the other's business provided that neither attempted to take precipitous action in the "neutral" areas of central Europe. Neither country wanted to conquer Austria, Prussia or Poland but simply didn't want the other to dominate there. Both were happy to "influence" their immediate neighbors (Russia in the Balkans, France in the Dutch Republic and the Confederation of the Rhine) without conquering and this left the continent in a general state of peace. However, Austrian incompetence was too much for Franz Joseph's subjects and they rebelled, somewhat predictably.

French and Russian diplomats hastily agreed that the Habsburg Empire would become more of a Federation. Russian troops marched in and informed both the Emperor and his subjects of the new arrangement. Both sides protested but the presence of 200,000 Russian troops forced the issue. Local Parliaments sprung up everywhere but under the nominal rule of the Emperor, whom resentfully accepted that his fate was determined by others for the moment.

Open Civil War was halted as the assorted peoples attempted to figure out what they had won and what they had lost, a task that would take them years. Franz Joseph eternally attempted to undermine the agreement. Violence was temporarily halted but not for long.

Madrid

Emperor Ferdinand VIII of Spain had waited a very long time for his father to die, seemingly his whole life. Given the decay of his father's body over the years, it was logical that Ferdinand VII wouldn't have lived to see fifty years. But the old man hung on, year after year, driving the Empire ever further into revolt, anarchy, oppression and general obsolescence compared to the thriving neighbors of New Spain, naming British Brazil and the United States.

The re-conquest of northern New Spain, now Tierra Fernanda, had been accomplished at great expense. But there was little to show of it as the land was destroyed after decades of war. The colonial elites, once the metropolis' greatest supporters, now sought to make themselves independent of Spain. Bit by bit, the colonies slipped away, often without a fight. For the most part, they did not declare open independence like the Philippines. Generally, they just informed the Royal Governors of who was now in charge.

Spain's capacity to dispatch armies was at a low ebb. Indeed, the suppression of Tierra Fernanda would not have been possible without the support of the other colonies. Had they revolted at that time as well...?

Perhaps worse was the knowledge that both America quietly supported these colonial insurrections, as they desired all Europeans out of the western hemisphere. Britain was a bit more ambiguous. As a colonial power in Brazil, independence movements may spread to their territories though Brazil had already been largely granted "Home Rule". Still, it was a bad precedent and the British quietly encouraged some peaceful solution. Britain knew perfectly well that Spain was not a threat to them. Perhaps an independent New Spain may prove as dynamic as the United States and prove a real contender for British-Brazilian hegemony in South America.

Spain was left impotent as the locals in Peru, Granada and Chile smoothly assumed power. Only in Tierra Fernanda and Cuba did the regime survive due to the large number of troops on site. What few forces available remained in Iberia to put down these constant revolts in Portugal and Catalonia provinces as well as the odd "Liberal" revolts that popped up everywhere. God knew that Ferdinand VIII was a reformer, over the past five decades, the then Infant had supported reform of the outdated Spanish industry and government. But this political reform? No.

Though he loathed to do it, Ferdinand VIII was forced to dispatch a request to his cousin, Napoleon III of France, for help. Ferdinand's mother had been a Bonaparte and childless Napoleon II's cousin (for this Ferdinand VIII was hated by his father, Ferdinand VII having loathed the Bonapartes and resented having to marry the "Low-born" daughter of a Corsican minor gentryman"). When Napoleon III assumed the throne of his uncle in France, the relationship between France and Spain had collapsed years before. Both new monarchs attempted to reestablish ties, though this was not popular in either country.

As rebellions tore apart his country, the Spanish King sought the only help he had left.

Napoleon III agreed to help on the condition that many of the revolutionaries' demands were met. Oddly, even Britain supported this to an extent, if only to stabilize Europe. Grudgingly, Ferdinand VIII did so but vowed never to allow such an embarrassment to be repeated.

The colonies were declared "self-governing" under Imperial Rule. This did not end the violence there as this simply meant that the local oligarchies replaced the Imperial tyranny in Madrid. Few colonials received greater rights, slavery persisted and the violence continued against the new dictators of the Americas.

Very little improved though Europe's worst violence had momentarily ended.
 
Well, Austria and Spain are super fucked over.

How is life in Tierra Fernanda, and Cuba?

And in Peru, Granada and Chile?

If Austria, and Spain had both totally collapsed before anyone could have done anything about it?
 
This all just seems more like using a band aid to paper over a festering wound, rather than anything that would really cure the vast social ills of society. All this seems to be doing is kicking the can down the road for about 20 years or so, as none of the problems regarding nationalities, lack of civil liberties, backward political institutions, etc has been solved.
 
Well, Austria and Spain are super fucked over.

How is life in Tierra Fernanda, and Cuba?

And in Peru, Granada and Chile?

If Austria, and Spain had both totally collapsed before anyone could have done anything about it?

Tierra Fernanda is heavily occupied by the Spanish Army and has local militia to help. Large numbers continue to emigrate to the US. Cuba has recently had an influx of slaves in the US Civil War and is dealing with that. I'll address that in future posts.

Peru, Granada and Chile are acting effectively independent under local oligarchies, though the lower classes remain restive.

I would think that, with French support, Spain can hold together. The same with Austria under Russian support. This may be a temporary solution.
 
This all just seems more like using a band aid to paper over a festering wound, rather than anything that would really cure the vast social ills of society. All this seems to be doing is kicking the can down the road for about 20 years or so, as none of the problems regarding nationalities, lack of civil liberties, backward political institutions, etc has been solved.

Exactly. Without any social and economic development, the minorities in Austria would never remain silent long.
 
Tierra Fernanda is heavily occupied by the Spanish Army and has local militia to help. Large numbers continue to emigrate to the US. Cuba has recently had an influx of slaves in the US Civil War and is dealing with that. I'll address that in future posts.

Peru, Granada and Chile are acting effectively independent under local oligarchies, though the lower classes remain restive.

I would think that, with French support, Spain can hold together. The same with Austria under Russian support. This may be a temporary solution.

And lets not forget the bloated colonial empires that they all control. If they are going to have trouble controlling their own populations, how in the world are they going to control their colonies?
 
Good chapter but why did you make Napoleon II Childless it seem forced to me to have the same Napoleon III as OTL?
 
Interesting. Who is TTL Napoleon III IOTL? A senior or a junior son of Louis Bonaparte?

I have this as the OTL Napoleon III but I suppose it is more than possible that either of this older brothers may have survived to this time period (all would be old men though by the 1870's). I don't know who Napoleon III would marry though, it certainly wouldn't be his OTL wife as Eugenie only went to France due to the Carlist Wars, which didn't happen in my TL. In this TL, Napoleon III would grow up knowing he was in the Emperor's succession and would likely be directed by his father and uncle (Napoleon II) to marry politically, maybe another Austrian or Spanish Princess (perhaps one of his cousins as my TL has Ferdinand VII marrying a Bonaparte).
 
March 1868

St. Louis

President Abraham Lincoln's Presidency was reaching its final, halting steps, as much to Lincoln's relief as the majority of the country. Having already led the United States longer than any other President (through three terms, including the one that he served for Seward from 1856 to 1860), there seemed to be a natural limit as to how long any Executive could be popular. Perhaps people simply wanted something new. Lincoln, exhausted after twelve years in the Presidential Mansion, was just as happy to leave.

The problem was that he didn't know who would replace him.

The buildup to the 1868 American Presidential Election for both Whig and Democratic Parties was oddly ambiguous. It was common knowledge that Lincoln would retire but there seemed to be no logical replacement for him. The Whigs remained in the majority by a fairly wide margin but that had shrunk with every election since 1860. Lincoln had been elected with 70% of the vote in 1860 in the aftershocks of the Seward assassination. This dropped to 58% in 1864 despite weak opposition. The primary point of contention was the ongoing occupation of the south. The mid-term Congressional elections were no less disheartening as the Whig Majority in Congress shrunk to 62%.

Lincoln was not especially concerned about his party's chances. As the party in power, the Whigs took the blame for every economic or social problem. Complaining was the purview of the minority party which naturally gathered up all those in opposition. Should the Democrats assume power tomorrow, they would soon lose much of this tepid support.

While the nation healed economically, socially and physically, problems remained. First, the south remained under defacto martial law. The Raiders proved so little affected by the army that violence remained a constant. Lincoln stood firm that no such state under this situation would return to Congress. Naturally, the Democrats preyed upon this continually though usually not openly saying anything in support of the Federal States of America.

The status of the Negroes remained in flux. The Amendment demanding full suffrage of Negroes throughout the nation was defeated. Twice. Lincoln knew better than to try again unless he knew he was going to win. Certainly, that would not happen when the south returned to Congress. Instead, Negroes were allowed to vote according to state law. Only half the states approved this, mostly in the west and northeast. The Midwest proved troublesome with their Democratic stronghold. With Congress falling further and further towards the Democrats, the 2/3rd's majority would prove impossible now, even more so when sixteen more southern Senators eventually return to Congress. The only saving grace is that the old 3/5th compromise was no longer in force (THAT was thankfully withdrawn over the years) so the overall population percentage in the south was so much smaller than bygone years. And so many Negroes had departed the south that there were now more out west than in the south and half as many as either locale in the north. Every damned one of them voted Whig.

Lincoln was uncertain whom would replace him. The war left many heroes but an odd amount of the higher Generals in the Union Army were old (Lee), dead (Scott), foreign (Garibaldi) or apolitical (Taylor, Sherman and too many others). Lincoln suspected the next President would be a General but had no idea who this could be as most of the Front Line soldiers were out of the running.

Benjamin Wade, the Senator from Ohio, somehow beat out a host of lesser-known Union Generals including Ulysses Grant from the President's home state. Wade was a Radical and this would no doubt hurt the party at the polls but the advantage remained strong enough that the election overall would not be in doubt. Wade would ensure that Lincoln's policies would endure. No one really knew Grant's politics but the General was put on the ticket as Vice-President in order to garner some military support among the veterans. Grant seemed happy at getting a no-work "post" with ample pay.

The Democrats opted for Horatio Seymour of New York. His vice-Presidential candidate was George McClellan, an ambitious soldier that Lincoln recalled as constantly whining for additional authority.

The election proved closer than Lincoln would have imagined. Wade was not a good campaigner and his Radical support for nation-wide Negro enfranchisement, Women's rights, labor rights, etc, proved less than popular in some areas and Seymour took advantage. Still, the Whigs were triumphant by a scale of 54% to 46%, far tighter than Lincoln ever imagined. Had the southern states been available to vote....?

Still, Lincoln could leave the new Capital of St. Louis for Springfield knowing he'd done his best.
- He'd go down in history as the man who followed "Papa Seward", the greatest liberator of the century behind Alexander II.
- The west seemed to be conquered in less than a decade, the great tribes defeated and thrust onto reservations. Lincoln did his best to give them enough good land to live on as white farmers and ranchers but he knew this would destroy their cultures.
- The nation's international standing was high. Lincoln was on good terms with Britain and France, though some incursions into the south Pacific by those nations were quietly rebuffed. Eastern Australia to the Hawaiian islands were American territory. Both countries seemed to realize the handful of poor harbors (American had already consumed the best in the Pacific) left on secondary islands were not worth alienating a rising power. The last think anyone wanted was America starting to interfere with their affairs in the colonies, especially Brazil and China.
- Spain remained a thorn, not that the Spanish government was the big problem. Filibusters continued to encourage dissent in Tierra Fernanda, Florida and Cuba despite Lincoln's admonishments. He did not want another war, even against as backward a nation as Spain. Still, the corrupt Spanish Empire festered, their colonies bordering America. Lincoln long hoped that the Empire would just collapse after all those south American colonies effectively took control of their own affairs. But the northern colonies remained steadfastly under Spanish thumb, oddly with the other colonies' support. The problem would not go away but Lincoln would not have to deal with it.

Lincoln attended Wade's swearing in. Naturally, the man made several Radical statements. Lincoln hoped that the nation would not convulse again.

But it wasn't his problem. The President would retire quietly until the end of his days in Springfield.


Manila

"President Novales" didn't know what to do. His authority barely reached beyond Manila. Even the island of Luzon was beyond his control. The other islands may as well been the other side of the moon.

Yes, Novales may have pushed out two pathetic Spanish attempts to reclaim the colony but that didn't mean much. Iberia remained restive, the south American colonies only paid lip service to the throne and the northern colonies (Tierra Fernanda, Cuba and Florida) only remained under Imperial control by virtue of the largest of armies under Ferdinand VIII's nominal power.

1/3rd of these forces were Iberian (largely Castilian), 1/3 local colonials and 1/3 from other colonies (Cuba, Granada, Peru, Chile) whom agreed to keep them in Tierra Fernanda only upon agreement that their own authority remain unchallenged. The King was forced to accept their terms.

Ferdinand VIII could barely dispatch any Iberian troops to Manila. He relied mainly on Timorese. The result was comical.


The Confederation of the Rhine

Seeing Spain's weakness, the other powers started to smell blood. They began prowling about the Philippines, determining if they were worth conquering themselves. France, Britain and the United States were among the contenders but even Russia and Prussia were involved.

The latter, Prussia, was a faded power in Germany. Kept out of the Confederation of the Rhine, Prussia had become something of a central focus of German nationalism along with Austria, which was deemed by the Confederation as "occupied" by the Habsburgs "Slavic and Hungarian" peoples despite the obvious fact that the opposite was true.

Still, German nationalism flourished and the Confederation, no longer so tightly bound to France, began to slowly centralize. The people desired a union of all Germans, including Prussia, Silesia, Austria and even those German speaking areas of France and the Dutch Republic.

Even as the Habsburg's collapsed and France entered a period of internal strife, Revolutionary thought reappeared in Europe. Once believing Bonapartism would bring the continent to a new future, now the people of Europe wanted to overthrow the false gods and seek new destinies.

The new two decades would prove quite fascinating.
 
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All right, all, I think I hit a natural end point for Diary of the Doofus King II. Thanks for all your support, comments and time.

I will probably take it up again eventually and work out how the belated "Age of Revolution" hits Europe and how the colonialism that spread to Japan and China worked out throughout the late 19th and early 20th century.

I'm guessing kind of an early WWI in the 1890 to 1900 TL but haven't made up my mind.

If you haven't read any of my "Quasi-War" TL's, I broke it out in seven chapters so far from 1796 to 1930ish. Feel free to review if you like. Bear in mind, the whole timeline is basically novel length.

Quasi-War 1 - 1794 to 1808 - The Adams Era
https://www.alternatehistory.com/disc...d.php?t=344281

Quasi-War 2 - 1808 to 1812 - The Burr Era
https://www.alternatehistory.com/disc...d.php?t=366914

Quasi-War 3 - 1828 to 1832 - The J. Q. Adams Era
https://www.alternatehistory.com/disc...d.php?t=368565

Quasi-War 4 - 1857 to 1861 - The Jefferson Davis Era
https://www.alternatehistory.com/disc...d.php?t=370199

Quasi-War 5 – 1880 to 1881 – The Interlude between major wars https://www.alternatehistory.com/disc...d.php?t=374541

Quasi-War 6 - 1900 to 1908 - The Pre-WWI Years
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=376478

Quasi-War 7 - On Hiatus
 
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