1971-1976
Vice President George Romney seemed to have everything go wrong for him in his campaign against Henry “Scoop” Jackson for President. Firstly, Goldwater’s ‘laissez-faire’ tendencies had their inevitable outcome – the commodities market, fueled by increases in global demand and oil price spikes, took a dive in early 1972, hurting the fortunes of many speculators and businesses. Of course, lower commodity prices were a benefit to many consumers and corporations as well, but nobody was willing to point this out as soon as somebody lost a job. The “Senator from Boeing” also had the advantage of out-hawking Goldwater’s would-be successor, not only in rhetoric, but in credentials. Romney’s record on foreign policy and national security was slim, and in his public statements he was often gaffe prone. Jackson, on the other hand, seemed to have all the right experience and geopolitical interests. While Jackson’s nomination had bitterly divided his party in the process of the nomination, he managed to win 55% of the popular vote nevertheless.
Jackson’s domestic programs did include an expansion of the EITC, some increases in taxes after the ’72 crunch, and in general a center-left approach to finances. Environmental policy was one of his main concerns, however, and he felt the Republicans had done little to address it. Consequently, Jackson and the Democrats, working with a fair number of moderate Republicans, passed a record amount of environmental legislation that covered air quality, hazardous waste, fishery sustainability and a variety of other concerns. Emissions trading markets were created for several air pollutants, though Milton Friedman argued that a tax would be more efficient. Ultimately, Jackson’s environmental reforms were both effective and politically popular among his party, helping to heal some of the wounds his candidacy had created.
Unfortunately, this euphoria did not last long. The ERA (including both gender and racial equality clauses) was ratified by three quarters of the American states, and passed into law. This initially seemed a positive – Jackson could wipe his hands clean of it. Then, however, the Supreme Court cases began to pile in. Jackson’s new judges (two were appointed by 1974) helped set the precedent for the court’s interpretation of the ERA. The last legal vestiges of segregation were blown away, while in federal courts it was determined women indeed had to register for selective service. Immigration law also came under scrutiny, and the 1973 Immigration Act abolished the quota system to avoid a massive legal battle. These moves increasingly alienated conservative Democrats, who were unmoved by Jackson’s opposition to busing. Left untouched, though, was the issue of whether the ERA would force recognition of same-sex marriages.
Outside the United States, Jackson faced more troubling issues. Though France and Italy had nominally returned to democracy, their governments were heavily influenced by the old hardliner. The EEC and the expansion of European unity was already on hold – for Jackson, it now became a matter of preserving NATO itself. In the wake of the bloodshed, it was becoming increasingly apparent to the Western powers that Soviet interlopers were involved in fueling some of the violence – once it had started. The extent of this was heavily exaggerated, but it did help convince European powers that communism was a greater threat than other European nations. Many cynically alluded to the Reichstag fire, but Bulganin’s other activities would soon quiet doubts about Soviet capacities.
In the Congo, the years-long civil war began to swing in the favor of the Stanleyville leftists. One could certainly doubt that ideology was a true discerning factor at this point, but since the assassination of Lumumba in 1969 the Soviets had begun offloading surplus arms to the Congolese rebels. After soundly defeating the Congolese government and making stories of Congolese atrocities well known, the new government of the “Congolese Socialist Republic” in 1973 (Not to be confused with the People’s Republic of the Congo (Congo-Brazzaville), nor the rump second Republic of the Congo). The CSR struggled to gain international recognition outside the COMDEF associated states, but eventually many other 3rd world countries acknowledged it in a demonstration of solidarity. The violence there lead to an increased uptake in conflict in the remnants of the Central African Federation (now Greater Rhodesia), where the Soviets provided assistance to black nationalists and the ANC. Bulganin did not invest immense amounts of energy in these efforts, but especially in Rhodesia’s case he hoped trade deals could be acquired to the benefit of the USSR.
Argentina’s RCU solidified a deal with the USSR, a major component of which was providing Soviet military technology to the Argentinean government beginning in 1971. By 1973, the Chilean government (now lead by a center-right, US friendly government) was increasingly paranoid about Argentina’s ambitions. Only worsening this was Argentina’s decision to help use Soviet expertise to survey the Beagle Channel for resources that year. Soon, a dispute ensued, each nation mobilized their military. Corporations from the United States (many believe under the influence of the CIA) began their own prospecting operations under the guard of the Chilean military, itself a recipient of American and other NATO nations’ arms deals due to its importance as an exporter. Argentina, emboldened by Soviet support, troubled by domestic rumblings, and outraged by Chilean inroads, announced a border closing and made outreaches to Bolivia and other Latin American nations for political support. In January of 1974, with weather playing a significant factor in the confusion, Chilean ships opened fire on an Argentinean coastal patrol vessel, sinking it. Conflict erupted on the front before central governments could move to stop it, though it was mostly contained to Patagonia. Aside from border skirmishes, the only conflict near major population centers was conducted in the air and sea. Each side sent submarines to attack the other’s ports. Bolivia, after being threatened by anticommunist Peru and Chile itself, declined to insert itself into the conflict.
Neither state was particularly interested in UN mediation, for both the US and USSR were significantly hampering the organization’s utility in such politically charged matters. However, as the US deployed military forces ‘on standby’ to Chile and the Falkland Islands, the Argentinean military knew the RCU would lead them into an irrecoverable war if they continued on this path. With the RCU becoming increasingly unpopular, soldiers stationed outside Buenos Aires threw a coup and called for UN mediation, which they quickly received. The CIA conducted a deal to shore up the new Argentine government while the two countries were forced to mediate their borders.
Among other things, the United States realized it could no longer afford to ignore Latin America as it once had. Even with Goldwater’s interest in dealing with communist counterinsurgencies, America had been relatively disinterested in the region. The theory that democratic governments would persist without foreign meddling lacked consistent empirical grounding. Juntas still emerged, and many of them, such as those in Peru and Brazil, were rather militant with regards to their neighbors. Brazil had even begun its own nuclear program in secret, while Venezuela pondered its own play on Guyana. Though Jackson was squeamish about Argentina, he felt he could put more pressure on such a regime to democratize if it were closer to the United States.
The wave of European instability that had troubled France and Italy rolled west into Spain and Portugal. In 1972, ETA’s ‘terror nights’ assassinated Franco and other government officials, resulting in a military junta taking control of Spain. Reformers were told to quiet down as Spain carried out a massive campaign of retaliation. In the neighboring country, things were less grim – a military coup deposed the old authoritarian government and seemed to open the way towards democracy. The new states of East Timor, Mozambique, Angola formed, but Cold War politics only enflamed the conflicts there. Consequently, South Africa moved in to Angola from Namibia to prevent the growing influence of communism in the region. Bulganin, his plans in Argentina frustrated, decided that Africa might hold some potential as a Soviet granary. Many thought this idea far fetched – Africa at the time was having trouble feed itself – but Bulganin felt that and influx of Soviet technical expertise could help develop new agricultural techniques and provide infrastructure for African nations to grow food. Libya’s left-leaning Pan-Arabist Qaddafi began receiving ever-larger influxes of Soviet aid, and his legions hoping to create an Islamic state in the Sahel piqued Bulganin’s interest. Military support and training began for these groups, and a wave of uprisings wracked the Sahel in the early ‘70s – Nigeria, still reeling from the loss of Biafra, seemed to be on the brink of collapse, while the Sudanese Civil War became a potential conflict zone.
In the Middle East itself, conflict in Lebanon lead to the Levant War, where Israeli forces clashed with those of the new (post-71) leftist Syrian government in Lebanon. The 1975 conflict lead to the occupation of the Golan heights and the beginning of the Egyptian, Libyan and Syrian nuclear programs. American troops in Iraq were drawn down to stationing on military bases only. The continued division of Iran continued to pose serious problems for Middle Eastern stability. The liberal reformists in the south were making some progress, but the dysfunctional situation worried many Middle Eastern analysts. Shiite leadership remained an open question, and soon ‘liberationist’ Shiite factions began to emerge in Soviet Iran, though the movement had little love for the United States either. While the movement had a major religious element, also present were ethnic issues – many liberationists were Farsis who disliked the USSR’s preferential treatment of Azeris and Kurds and wished to reunite and create a Persian state.
Nearby, India announced the completion of its nuclear program and the revitalization of its military under Soviet guidance. Angered by America’s heavy support for Pakistan and interest in China, India began negotiations with the USSR for air and naval bases. Flexing its muscles, in 1973 India forced the independence of East Pakistan, making it all too clear India was unafraid to exercise a nuclear veto. This news upset Jackson, who then began negotiations with Deng Xiaoping the next year to bring China into its proper place in American diplomacy. Before these negotiations could begin, however, CCP hardliners took this as evidence that Deng was everything Mao made him out to be and worse – conflict erupted again as Deng was effectively deposed by the military and reformed Red Guards, putting any negotiations on hold as China again descended into civil strife. A series of powerless puppets and would-be rulers claimed leadership of China over the next few years, shocking the world and dragging down the country.
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