Dewey vs. ? in 1952

I realize that a Dewey victory is something of a cliche', but let's say he beats Truman for whatever reason. Assuming he isn't assassinated, and that he runs for reelection in 1952, who would the Democrats nominate to run against Dewey/Warren?

The candidate that immediately comes to mind is Estes Kefauver. Indeed, in most "Dewey wins" Timelines that I've read, Kefauver is the candidate who challenges Dewey in 1952, and he usually manages to defeat the President. Kefauver did have some degree of popularity historically in 1952. Indeed, had the system worked then as it does now-there is every reason to suppose that he would have been the nominee in 1952, instead of Adlai Stevenson. However, Kefauver was despised by party bosses. And as such they probably are not going to be wiling to give the Presidential nomination to him.

I believed Truman's preferred candidate was Averell Harriman, but he was probably too inexperienced to merit serious consideration. Even Stevenson had served as Governor of Illinois for a few years before becoming the Democratic Party's sacrificial lamb against Eisenhower. And Truman's backing probably won't count for much once he's been beaten by Dewey, no matter how narrow a race 1948 ends up being.

Then there's Adlai Stevenson himself. Historically his nomination was something of a fluke, so I'm not sure how likely his nomination in a Dewey wins World would be. He didn't even really want to run historically, so he may well stay out of the race here.

Richard Russell would have the same handicap he had historically. He was southern, and a segregationist. Therefore he probably isn't the nominee.

former Vice President Barkley is too old....

So, who the Democrats nominate?
 
considering the problems of all the candidates, I really think it's a crapshoot. Personally Harriman would be interesting and not implausible, and he may assume the role of Stevenson in this tl.
 
The difference between this TL and OTL is that the Dem nomination in 1952 is actually worth something if things proceed much as they did in OTL during 1949-50. Dewey would get saddled with the loss of China and Korea. Moreover, you've got what would probably be a tamer Joe McCarthy, as it's hard to imagine him concocting a whole bunch of Communists in a GOP administration. Perhaps, then, you have an ambitious and opportunistic Eisenhower deciding to run as a Democrat. This is somewhat plausible; nobody knew Eisenhower's political affiliations until he ran in '52; Truman was worried that he might run against him in 1948.

Another possibility is George C. Marshall. Similar background as Ike but with a stint as Secretary of State; would be able to credibly promise to end Korea, was liked immensely by Truman, who would retain some influence in the backrooms and detested Kefauver, whom he referred to as "Cowfever".

This, in turn, opens up an interesting timeline possibility: Marshall beats Dewey with Kefauver as his running mate. Marshall died OTL in 1959, which would make Kefauver President. Kefauver wins election in his own right in 1960 with a young Senator from Massachusetts as his running mate -- John F. Kennedy. Kefauver died of an aortic aneurysm in August 1963...
 

bguy

Donor
I believed Truman's preferred candidate was Averell Harriman, but he was probably too inexperienced to merit serious consideration. Even Stevenson had served as Governor of Illinois for a few years before becoming the Democratic Party's sacrificial lamb against Eisenhower. And Truman's backing probably won't count for much once he's been beaten by Dewey, no matter how narrow a race 1948 ends up being.

With Dewey in the White House, Harriman might well run for the New York Governorship in 1950. If he wins that race then he's got experience as an ambassador, Secretary of Commerce, and as a Governor. That's a fairly impressive resume.

OTOH Harriman was apparently a pretty poor campaigner, and he is probably unacceptable to the south. (Which may be a deal killer for the Democrats in '52 since the last thing they are going to want is another Dixiecrat revolt.)

Then there's Adlai Stevenson himself. Historically his nomination was something of a fluke, so I'm not sure how likely his nomination in a Dewey wins World would be. He didn't even really want to run historically, so he may well stay out of the race here.

Perhaps, though he has a much better chance of winning against Dewey than he ever did against Ike, so the temptation to run would probably be stronger than OTL. And Stevenson is just about the only credible Democratic candidate I can think of that would be acceptable to the south without turning off the rest of the country.

The only other one I can think of is Senator Scott Lucas if he manages to win reelection in 1950. He got stomped pretty badly OTL, but in this timeline he would be running in a midterm election with the Republicans holding the presidency, so that might help him squeak by. Lucas's health wasn't that great (heart attack in 1949), and he's not exactly a dynamic figure, but he should be broadly acceptable to both the liberals and conservative factions in the Democratic Party. His health is also probably slightly better in a Dewey wins universe, since presumably Barkley is still the Senate Majority Leader which will save Lucas a lot of aggravation. Still, it is very possible the stress of being president (or even just running a presidential campaign) could kill him (his doctor said that losing the Senate race in 1950 saved his life), so his veep choice is going to be really important.

I agree with your reasons for Kefauver, Russell, and Barkley not getting the nomination.

What about James Roosevelt? I don't really know what his political views were, but with his name and impressive war record he might be able to make a credible run if he wins the California Governor's race in 1950. (He got curb stomped OTL, but this time he wouldn't be running against the immensely popular Earl Warren, so maybe he would have a chance, especially if 1950 ends up being a Democratic year.)
 
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