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"It is an intriguing question whether, if Dewey had won the election of 1948, he might have neutralized the "China lobby" and been in a better position than Truman to recognize the new Communist regime." Charles Gati, Caging the Bear: Containment and the Cold War, p. 125. https://www.google.com/search?biw=1...c.1.64.psy-ab..3.10.1618.0..0.246.gNd0v0mtcwI

I can actually see Dewey saying something like: "We Republicans are not to blame for the loss of China; Chiang was doomed by the time I took office. With Mao's victory made inevitable by the mistakes of FDR and Truman, we have to do what we can to preserve any possible influence with the new regime and try to dissuade it from becoming a total satellite of the USSR..." OTOH, as long as Chiang controls Taiwan, he has not totally lost the Chinese Civil War, and there will be immense pressure from Republican conservatives not to allow Taiwan to fall into Mao's hands--which will make normal relations with the new PRC very difficult.
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