One of the reasons I find it scary is that, at the time, JEdgar had almost folk hero status amongst many Americans. He was virtually the model for our current fearless leader in as much as unshakable support would be forthcoming for anything he did from a big chunk of the unwashed, no matter how outrageous it might be. I do, however, think you're absolutely correct about him not wishing to stray too far from his base of power...
Dewey Defeats Truman. Who wins in 1952?
- Thread starter dw93
- Start date
Certainly. If Castro still comes to power and the U-2 incident occurs, then Warren is also vulnerable on foreign policy. Provided that JFK isn't on the ticket (as either President or VP) in 1956, then 1960 will be his year. Instead of a nail biter, 1960 would probably see an unpopular incumbent lose decisively.
My “go-to” source for “What would Dewey Do?” is in fact an article of the same name:
https://books.google.com/books?id=3wUEAAAAMBAJ&pg=PA10#v=onepage&q&f=false
https://books.google.com/books?id=3...48 Special Issue: What will Dewey Do?&f=false
Which pretty much sets forth Dewey’s plans once in office. This is important since several things are going on between this and next election. For one thing Dewey planned increased defense spending across the board whereas Truman had been cutting and disbanding the Army and Navy in favor of the Air Force and the Atomic Bomb as America’s main offensive/defensive force. (In fact that force too would be subject to deep cuts and manpower reductions) This was increased during Truman’s second term to the point where the Navy could not blockade North Korea when ordered to do so since it didn’t have enough ships available!
Dewey’s budget increases are going to allow a LOT of OTL constraints that lead to both the Korean war and later issues to possibly be avoided.
But let’s see:
The Communist Chinese forces enter Beijing at the end of January 1949. Dewey is just sworn in (January, 20) so likely we still see an increased aid package but not much else as there’s not a lot the US CAN do at this point. This wasn’t seen as the ‘end’ of the Nationalists but it wasn’t seen as a good sign either. (In fact the collapse is pretty rapid after this and frankly I can’t see Dewey getting the blame for this, nor does he have time to really do anything about the situation). The PRC is announced in October and immediately recognized by the USSR. The Nationalists were in full retreat and pushed off the mainland by the end of the year there’s really no way Dewey could have effected that outcome short of direct intervention and if he needs to deflect he can always blame Taft and the Democrats.
The Berlin Blockade and Berlin Airlift is still going on, (and will be till May 1949 if everything goes the same as OTL) there have been US B-29’s in Europe since July but no A-bombs have been transferred to Europe. NATO is signed in April the organization fully formed and operational by August. The Soviet Union announces and the US confirms their first A-Bomb test also in August. (OTL this prompts Truman to allow research on the Hydrogen Bomb but with Dewey’s new budget that might have started a bit earlier)
So onto 1950:
In January 1950 Senator Kefauver introduces a resolution to investigate organized crime in the US. OTL, Hoover opposed this as he wanted the FBI to focus on political organizations and espionage activities. TTL he’s likely Attorney General and awaiting a Supreme Court slot per the agreement with Dewey. So Dewey may put pressure on his replacement at the FBI, (likely long time Hoover aid Clyde Tolson or Louis Nichols so Hoover could remain ‘in-control’ in theory at least) given Dewey’s anti-crime stance and if Hoover intervenes it would threaten his Supreme Court slot or even his current AG job.
As noted Dulles rather than Acheson delivers TTL’s “Perimeter Speech” and it’s likely more aggressive and more specific. But as noted that less than how Stalin reads Dewey will determine the amount of support Kim gets. Something that also has to be noted is IF Dewey is going to be more aggressive with the US military perimeter he’s going to confront MacArthur who along with Truman had been keeping South Korea under control by feeding them far less surplus military supplies than the South wanted. Keep very much in mind that the South was just as determined to go North the second they had an opportunity as the North was to go South and both sides knew this. MacArthur wanted the majority of US forces pulled out of South Korea so that when, (no one felt it was in question someone would jump but they fully expected it to be the South not the North) things kicked off the US would not be caught in the middle and more importantly the US would not be seen as an aggressor or assisting an aggressor by either the Soviets or China. (There’s very much a secondary reasoning here as well as MacArthur wanted all US forces in “Asia” to be under his direct command and preferably stationed in Japan itself where he had direct access)
Now another thing to keep in mind is unlike Truman, Dewey is someone Stalin has never met and probably has little knowledge of. Further while Stalin was wanting to build up North Koreas defenses, mostly to secure Mao’s flank while China rebuilt, he wasn’t really worried about Southern aggression and he an Mao were very much worried about US involvement in any conflict. Kim got Stalin to agree that if Mao agreed that the North could go on the offensive but then told Mao that Stalin had already agreed to going to war with the South. He then pressured Mao who ‘owed’ North Korea for support during the revolution so Mao agreed since Stalin already had done so. Needless to say neither Mao or Stalin were exactly happy to find out they’d been lied to but by that point it looked like Kim’s assessment of the outcome was correct and the conflict would be over before the US could intervene.
TTL by mid-1949 and early 1950 we’re seeing a very different US progression on “mutual defense” and military spending with the former under a more aggressive stance and the latter increasing instead of continuing to decrease as per OTL and Truman’s policy. Further the calculations in both Moscow and Beijing are changed in that it is likely now a shrinking window of opportunity AND with a more aggressive US policy does that mean they will now support a more aggressive South Korea? So the US has, depending on Congress and MacArthur, somewhere between June 1949 and June 1950 to ‘do’ something about Korea.
My thinking is that even if things manage to kick off in a similar manner as OTL then Dewey may be more supportive of threatening to use the atomic bombs on Korea and/or China than Truman was. I don’t think he will and he’ll likely ride closer herd on MacArthur and his rhetoric than Truman was. I think he will be more willing to listen to those who were worried about Chinese intervention as by this point Mac’s “intimate knowledge” of Asia will have been called into question. In essence the US will probably do about the same if not a little better than OTL Korea to this point By October the UN forces are on the 38th parallel while South Korean forces are beyond it and Mac is agitating to follow them up and that there is no danger of Chinese intervention.
Here’s where things get sticky. First of all is the question of does Dewey survive the assassination attempt (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempted_assassination_of_Harry_S._Truman) that Truman did? If not then things may be very, very different from this point on!
But beyond that the question of Chinese intervention and how much threat’s and force are both available and possible to put into place to head off such a move. Further it becomes a question of allowing UN forces beyond the 38th parallel and it seems to be there was a general consensus for doing so among the UN forces leaders. There were a lot of factors in this, everything from allowing the South to take the heavy industrial areas of the North to the expedient of ensuring the North could never be an aggressor again. I think that in such a position Dewey could possibly move to a more aggressive diplomacy through the USSR and China and maybe hold back the UN forces at a defensible location north of the 38th parallel while allowing South Korean forces to advance with UN Air and Artillery Support. I’d see the Chinese advancing to occupy and support a ‘rump’ North Korea, but if when testing UN defensive lines they don’t find the same weakness’ and disorganized nature of the ‘front’ as per OTL I don’t think they will commit fully.
So even if negotiations drag, (and I’d see Dewey and Dulles threatening nuclear weapons if China does not fully come to the table) the ‘war’ will be seen as being more successful than OTL. And I think Dewey will get the credit for that.
But let’s say Kim misses his opportunity and there’s no outright conflict but a buildup of tensions on the peninsula. Likely it will get some focus and the question will remain if the South decides to go North at some point…
August 1949 OTL Truman appoints Tom Clark to replace the recently deceased Frank Murphy, so TTL this is the first opportunity to put Hoover on the Court and get him out of the way if he’s not already fired or side-lined. The ‘key’ likely would have been what Hoover had on Dewey in his files. Hoover always had little ‘political’ power and most of his power in Washington was related to his secret ‘files’ and how he wielded the power of the FBI. The supposed deal with Dewey would in theory, if Hoover could juggle it long enough, put Hoover into a ‘job’ where he would be totally free of Presidential and Congressional ‘threat’ of being fired and still allow him to manipulate the offices of Attorney General and the head of the FBI while using both to increase and expand his control through both. That is if it could be done and frankly I’m not sure Hoover would have followed through on the deal in the first place.
Being honest what would be known as the “Second Red Scare” was already underway by 1948 and by early 1949 Hoover would see FBI power and prestige on the rise again as “G-Men” were set to fight the Red Menace at home and abroad. So I’d suspect that he would renege on the deal and not accept being Attorney General or a Supreme Court position. If he remains FBI Director he can continue to fight reassigning FBI assets to “side” shows like organized crime and racial incidents and continue to push for the FBI being a “kingmaker” or breaker for any future US politicians in a similar manner to what he did OTL. If he doesn’t take the deal by mid-1950 he will be in a pretty unassailable position without having to give up the FBI and all that power that entailed and he’d be just as able to direct it towards his ends as he was OTL with little Dewey could do to him. As per OTL this way he “wins” without ever having to move to a vulnerable position like AG and having to depend on a despised “politician” to appoint him to the Court. In essence he just continues to do what he’s done from the start with more confidence and more ‘protection’ by keeping the FBI and himself on the public good side.
And in 1952 Truman decided not to go for re-election, I don’t think we’d see that from Dewey and frankly he’s got a pretty even chance at this point.
Randy
https://books.google.com/books?id=3wUEAAAAMBAJ&pg=PA10#v=onepage&q&f=false
https://books.google.com/books?id=3...48 Special Issue: What will Dewey Do?&f=false
Which pretty much sets forth Dewey’s plans once in office. This is important since several things are going on between this and next election. For one thing Dewey planned increased defense spending across the board whereas Truman had been cutting and disbanding the Army and Navy in favor of the Air Force and the Atomic Bomb as America’s main offensive/defensive force. (In fact that force too would be subject to deep cuts and manpower reductions) This was increased during Truman’s second term to the point where the Navy could not blockade North Korea when ordered to do so since it didn’t have enough ships available!
Dewey’s budget increases are going to allow a LOT of OTL constraints that lead to both the Korean war and later issues to possibly be avoided.
But let’s see:
The Communist Chinese forces enter Beijing at the end of January 1949. Dewey is just sworn in (January, 20) so likely we still see an increased aid package but not much else as there’s not a lot the US CAN do at this point. This wasn’t seen as the ‘end’ of the Nationalists but it wasn’t seen as a good sign either. (In fact the collapse is pretty rapid after this and frankly I can’t see Dewey getting the blame for this, nor does he have time to really do anything about the situation). The PRC is announced in October and immediately recognized by the USSR. The Nationalists were in full retreat and pushed off the mainland by the end of the year there’s really no way Dewey could have effected that outcome short of direct intervention and if he needs to deflect he can always blame Taft and the Democrats.
The Berlin Blockade and Berlin Airlift is still going on, (and will be till May 1949 if everything goes the same as OTL) there have been US B-29’s in Europe since July but no A-bombs have been transferred to Europe. NATO is signed in April the organization fully formed and operational by August. The Soviet Union announces and the US confirms their first A-Bomb test also in August. (OTL this prompts Truman to allow research on the Hydrogen Bomb but with Dewey’s new budget that might have started a bit earlier)
So onto 1950:
In January 1950 Senator Kefauver introduces a resolution to investigate organized crime in the US. OTL, Hoover opposed this as he wanted the FBI to focus on political organizations and espionage activities. TTL he’s likely Attorney General and awaiting a Supreme Court slot per the agreement with Dewey. So Dewey may put pressure on his replacement at the FBI, (likely long time Hoover aid Clyde Tolson or Louis Nichols so Hoover could remain ‘in-control’ in theory at least) given Dewey’s anti-crime stance and if Hoover intervenes it would threaten his Supreme Court slot or even his current AG job.
As noted Dulles rather than Acheson delivers TTL’s “Perimeter Speech” and it’s likely more aggressive and more specific. But as noted that less than how Stalin reads Dewey will determine the amount of support Kim gets. Something that also has to be noted is IF Dewey is going to be more aggressive with the US military perimeter he’s going to confront MacArthur who along with Truman had been keeping South Korea under control by feeding them far less surplus military supplies than the South wanted. Keep very much in mind that the South was just as determined to go North the second they had an opportunity as the North was to go South and both sides knew this. MacArthur wanted the majority of US forces pulled out of South Korea so that when, (no one felt it was in question someone would jump but they fully expected it to be the South not the North) things kicked off the US would not be caught in the middle and more importantly the US would not be seen as an aggressor or assisting an aggressor by either the Soviets or China. (There’s very much a secondary reasoning here as well as MacArthur wanted all US forces in “Asia” to be under his direct command and preferably stationed in Japan itself where he had direct access)
Now another thing to keep in mind is unlike Truman, Dewey is someone Stalin has never met and probably has little knowledge of. Further while Stalin was wanting to build up North Koreas defenses, mostly to secure Mao’s flank while China rebuilt, he wasn’t really worried about Southern aggression and he an Mao were very much worried about US involvement in any conflict. Kim got Stalin to agree that if Mao agreed that the North could go on the offensive but then told Mao that Stalin had already agreed to going to war with the South. He then pressured Mao who ‘owed’ North Korea for support during the revolution so Mao agreed since Stalin already had done so. Needless to say neither Mao or Stalin were exactly happy to find out they’d been lied to but by that point it looked like Kim’s assessment of the outcome was correct and the conflict would be over before the US could intervene.
TTL by mid-1949 and early 1950 we’re seeing a very different US progression on “mutual defense” and military spending with the former under a more aggressive stance and the latter increasing instead of continuing to decrease as per OTL and Truman’s policy. Further the calculations in both Moscow and Beijing are changed in that it is likely now a shrinking window of opportunity AND with a more aggressive US policy does that mean they will now support a more aggressive South Korea? So the US has, depending on Congress and MacArthur, somewhere between June 1949 and June 1950 to ‘do’ something about Korea.
My thinking is that even if things manage to kick off in a similar manner as OTL then Dewey may be more supportive of threatening to use the atomic bombs on Korea and/or China than Truman was. I don’t think he will and he’ll likely ride closer herd on MacArthur and his rhetoric than Truman was. I think he will be more willing to listen to those who were worried about Chinese intervention as by this point Mac’s “intimate knowledge” of Asia will have been called into question. In essence the US will probably do about the same if not a little better than OTL Korea to this point By October the UN forces are on the 38th parallel while South Korean forces are beyond it and Mac is agitating to follow them up and that there is no danger of Chinese intervention.
Here’s where things get sticky. First of all is the question of does Dewey survive the assassination attempt (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempted_assassination_of_Harry_S._Truman) that Truman did? If not then things may be very, very different from this point on!
But beyond that the question of Chinese intervention and how much threat’s and force are both available and possible to put into place to head off such a move. Further it becomes a question of allowing UN forces beyond the 38th parallel and it seems to be there was a general consensus for doing so among the UN forces leaders. There were a lot of factors in this, everything from allowing the South to take the heavy industrial areas of the North to the expedient of ensuring the North could never be an aggressor again. I think that in such a position Dewey could possibly move to a more aggressive diplomacy through the USSR and China and maybe hold back the UN forces at a defensible location north of the 38th parallel while allowing South Korean forces to advance with UN Air and Artillery Support. I’d see the Chinese advancing to occupy and support a ‘rump’ North Korea, but if when testing UN defensive lines they don’t find the same weakness’ and disorganized nature of the ‘front’ as per OTL I don’t think they will commit fully.
So even if negotiations drag, (and I’d see Dewey and Dulles threatening nuclear weapons if China does not fully come to the table) the ‘war’ will be seen as being more successful than OTL. And I think Dewey will get the credit for that.
But let’s say Kim misses his opportunity and there’s no outright conflict but a buildup of tensions on the peninsula. Likely it will get some focus and the question will remain if the South decides to go North at some point…
August 1949 OTL Truman appoints Tom Clark to replace the recently deceased Frank Murphy, so TTL this is the first opportunity to put Hoover on the Court and get him out of the way if he’s not already fired or side-lined. The ‘key’ likely would have been what Hoover had on Dewey in his files. Hoover always had little ‘political’ power and most of his power in Washington was related to his secret ‘files’ and how he wielded the power of the FBI. The supposed deal with Dewey would in theory, if Hoover could juggle it long enough, put Hoover into a ‘job’ where he would be totally free of Presidential and Congressional ‘threat’ of being fired and still allow him to manipulate the offices of Attorney General and the head of the FBI while using both to increase and expand his control through both. That is if it could be done and frankly I’m not sure Hoover would have followed through on the deal in the first place.
Being honest what would be known as the “Second Red Scare” was already underway by 1948 and by early 1949 Hoover would see FBI power and prestige on the rise again as “G-Men” were set to fight the Red Menace at home and abroad. So I’d suspect that he would renege on the deal and not accept being Attorney General or a Supreme Court position. If he remains FBI Director he can continue to fight reassigning FBI assets to “side” shows like organized crime and racial incidents and continue to push for the FBI being a “kingmaker” or breaker for any future US politicians in a similar manner to what he did OTL. If he doesn’t take the deal by mid-1950 he will be in a pretty unassailable position without having to give up the FBI and all that power that entailed and he’d be just as able to direct it towards his ends as he was OTL with little Dewey could do to him. As per OTL this way he “wins” without ever having to move to a vulnerable position like AG and having to depend on a despised “politician” to appoint him to the Court. In essence he just continues to do what he’s done from the start with more confidence and more ‘protection’ by keeping the FBI and himself on the public good side.
And in 1952 Truman decided not to go for re-election, I don’t think we’d see that from Dewey and frankly he’s got a pretty even chance at this point.
Randy
It's worth wondering where Joe McCarthy's career goes under a Dewey Presidency. Alleging that there were Communists in Truman's State Department was what brought McCarthy to fame in the first place...
It was already on-going in 1948 and partially McCarthy made a big deal of it because Truman was putting pressure on the HUAAC to tone it down. Korea allowed it to explode. In TTL he's going after a "fellow" Republican AND the nominal head of the Republican Party so I can't see it going over well at all if he tries it.
Randy
Instead of the U.S. government, McCarthy would probably focus on Hollywood and labor unions. Dewey was opposed to red-baiting in the 1948 campaign and he famously believed the Communist Party shouldn't be outlawed. So you'd see friction between President Dewey and Senator McCarthy. How Dewey responds to McCarthyism would probably come to be a defining factor in his legacy...
Here's likely where the whole thing turns on just how 'ballsy' McCarthy is. No matter where he and HUAAC go they'r going to run into Dewey's agenda and frankly I don't think McCarthy would do it to a Republican who can squash him like a bug with ease. Truman was fair game as a Democrat but Dewey is his "boss" in a time where that mattered a LOT. The wild card is Hoover in this case. He's not going to get along with Dewey, (who btw will be pushing him to use the FBI on organized crime which Hoover denies exists till he can't anymore, https://www.smithsonianmag.com/hist...and-changed-justice-system-forever-180967204/) and he's going to be feeding ANY anti-communist effort while trying to make it all the FBI's business. But again McCarthy and Dewey are the same political party in a time where that's pretty important for both and Hoover, while being neither is going to be pushing both in a direction the one in "charge" at least does not want everyone going.
In the end anything McCarthy stirs up is going to end up on the Presidents face and that's what we call a 'career-limiting-option' for McCarthy. What I REALLY see being seen as Dewey's legacy will be how he deals with Hoover on the domestic front and Communism on the international front.
Randy
For an argument that the importance of the "defensive perimeter" speech has been much overrated, see
https://www.archives.gov/publications/prologue/2002/summer/korean-myths-1.html
"To build political support for the Korean assistance package, Secretary of State Dean G. Acheson delivered a speech before the National Press Club on January 12, 1950, offering an optimistic assessment of the ROK's future. Later, critics perpetrated the myth that Acheson's exclusion of South Korea from the US 'defensive perimeter' gave the Kremlin a 'green light' to order an attack.13 Currently available declassified Soviet documents show, however, that Acheson's words had almost no effect on Communist planning for the invasion; only one even mentions the Press Club speech. In fact, North Korean leader Kim Il Sung at first thought that Acheson had placed South Korea inside the U.S. defensive perimeter.14...
"In January 1950, Stalin approved Kim's request to visit Moscow but, despite Acheson's speech, he was not ready to approve an invasion. At that time, he also approved a major expansion of North Korea's military capabilities, but his purpose was more to ensure its survival than to promote aggressive expansion. When they met during April, Kim persuaded Stalin that a military victory would be quick and easy, especially because of support from southern guerrillas and an expected popular uprising against Rhee. But Stalin still feared U.S. military intervention, advising Kim that he could stage an offensive only if China's Mao Zedong approved. During May, Kim Il Sung traveled to Beijing to secure Chinese consent for the invasion. Significantly, Mao also expressed concerns about U.S. military intervention. But after Kim disingenuously explained that Stalin had approved his plans, Mao gave his reluctant consent for the offensive as well. Kim Il Sung knew that time was running out and manipulated his patrons into supporting his desperate bid for reunification before Rhee could beat him to the punch..."
In short, the "defensive perimeter" speech does not seem to have convinced either Stalin or Mao or Kim that there was no chance that the US would fight; rather, what happened was that Kim managed to persuade both Stalin and Mao that the North would win before the US could do anything about it.
Kenneth Wherry also thought that the USSR had a list of gays in the USA government that they were using for blackmail.
I've discussed this elsewhere on other threads, but might former President Truman run for the Senate in 1950 or 1952? IOTL there was pressure for him to run in 1952 but Bess was opposed and the Trumans retired from political life. But after having been defeated in 1948, and badly in need of money, might Truman seek vindication in running for the Senate in 1950?
This is so true. His words on the military-industrial complex and the income tax rates under his regime are more akin to Bernie Sanders than Clintonite Democrats, let alone the modern GOP. On social issues and illegal immigration, he'd line up more on the conservative side, but tbh his stances align with many conservative African-Americans. Even his conservative economic policy of balanced budgets contrasts not only against liberal Democrat's views on deficit spending for infrastructure, education, healthcare, etc. but also opposed to the dominant Reaganite conservative faction of the GOP which supports cutting taxes and raising military spending instead of balancing the budget.