Admittedly this is hard-given that FDR won in a landslide. But there is the possibility of a public health crisis that could have turned the tide in Dewey's direction.
Let's say there's an obvious health crisis with FDR-while he recovers in time for there not to be much of an effect where policy is concerned-enough of the public loses confidence in FDR's ability to continue to govern that Dewey pulls off a narrow victory-and an extreme upset.
What does a Dewey administration that takes office in 1945 look like?
How-if at all would the transistion between Roosevelt and Dewey impact the war?
What would President Dewey's war policy be? Would he differ in any respect from FDR or Truman there?
How would a loss in 1944 impact FDR's legacy? If FDR had been defeated that year would historians view his administration in the previous three terms any differently? Would a loss color how FDR was viewed thereafter?
What would the narrative about the 1944 election be? Would FDR be blamed by Democrats for running again despite his poor health or would his defeat in 1944 be seen as inevitable in retrospect? The narrative of inevitable defeat in 1944 might look something like this:
"Already in 1940 there were signs of trouble for FDR-Jimmy Byrnes feared that Wendell Wilkie would defeat Roosevelt that year. But with the world in crisis the nation once again turned to FDR despite reservations surrounding a third term.
By 1944-while the war had not yet been won every trend indicated that the conflict was approaching a successful conclusion.
The international crisis was of a different character than had been the case in 1940. The tensions that the possible fall of the U.K. had papered over in 1940 returned to the surface of American politics.
That FDR lost in 1944 should therefore have not come as a surprise. Winston Churchill would also leave office in more or less the same period for similar reasons."
What would Dewey's domestic policy in the 1946-1948 period have looked like? What would Congress have looked like in this period if a Republican held the White House?
What happens to FDR in retirement? Would he die sooner or live a little longer without the Presidency?
Let's say there's an obvious health crisis with FDR-while he recovers in time for there not to be much of an effect where policy is concerned-enough of the public loses confidence in FDR's ability to continue to govern that Dewey pulls off a narrow victory-and an extreme upset.
What does a Dewey administration that takes office in 1945 look like?
How-if at all would the transistion between Roosevelt and Dewey impact the war?
What would President Dewey's war policy be? Would he differ in any respect from FDR or Truman there?
How would a loss in 1944 impact FDR's legacy? If FDR had been defeated that year would historians view his administration in the previous three terms any differently? Would a loss color how FDR was viewed thereafter?
What would the narrative about the 1944 election be? Would FDR be blamed by Democrats for running again despite his poor health or would his defeat in 1944 be seen as inevitable in retrospect? The narrative of inevitable defeat in 1944 might look something like this:
"Already in 1940 there were signs of trouble for FDR-Jimmy Byrnes feared that Wendell Wilkie would defeat Roosevelt that year. But with the world in crisis the nation once again turned to FDR despite reservations surrounding a third term.
By 1944-while the war had not yet been won every trend indicated that the conflict was approaching a successful conclusion.
The international crisis was of a different character than had been the case in 1940. The tensions that the possible fall of the U.K. had papered over in 1940 returned to the surface of American politics.
That FDR lost in 1944 should therefore have not come as a surprise. Winston Churchill would also leave office in more or less the same period for similar reasons."
What would Dewey's domestic policy in the 1946-1948 period have looked like? What would Congress have looked like in this period if a Republican held the White House?
What happens to FDR in retirement? Would he die sooner or live a little longer without the Presidency?