Development of computers without the World Wars?

Let's assume that WW1 and WW2 are somehow avoided. How do you see computers developing? Do you believe that the field would lag behind compared to its OTL counterpart? Is it possible that the opposite is true, that the field could be even further along in certain scenarios? Ultimately, how necessary were WW1 and WW2, with all their carnage and destruction, to the advancement of computing? Would the personal computer be as ubiquitous as it is in our own timeline?

As an added question, what nations do you see being leaders in the industry?
 
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marathag

Banned
Tabulating Machines predated WWI, using Hollerith punch cards in the 1880s, all electromechanical. Besides punchcards (and cars readers for them), he invented the numeric keypad for data entry.
All 'programs' wwre hardwired in, not till before WWI came up with a control board, so 'program' could be changed easier.
These could do logic. Math, results and comparisons.
Once it's figured that tubes can do logic, there will be a move to doing that for even faster speeds.

Not much change. Colossus could have been been built 20, even 30 years sooner
 
Computer science will be far less dominated by English terminology. The Internet will probably be segregated into different languages with little to do with each other. In fact it might be better to think there would be multiple internets than a “single” internet.
 
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Driftless

Donor
Might you see some push from a variety of sources for improved weather and climate tracking? All joking aside, modern world weather services are in the front-row for super-computing usage. Ships at sea, airlines, agriculture, flood control, hurricane/typhoon prediction all have needed enhanced accuracy ever since humans figured out that those events had patterns.
 

marathag

Banned
Without the Cold War there would be less impetus to miniaturize electronics for aerospace use.
But there were other uses.
Tube miniaturization came from people wanting portable radios and hearing aids, and ones that could run on lower power. Nobody wanted to lug a 12V leadacid battery around for the tube heater, and 90volt battery for the plate.
So smaller tubes that could run on a 1.5V heater, and 22V for the plate were in demand
 
Let's assume that WW1 and WW2 are somehow avoided. How do you see computers developing? Do you believe that the field would lag behind compared to its OTL counterpart? Is it possible that the opposite is true, that the field could be even further along in certain scenarios? Ultimately, how necessary were WW1 and WW2, with all their carnage and destruction, to the advancement of computing? Would the personal computer be as ubiquitous as it is in our own timeline?

As an added question, what nations do you see being leaders in the industry?

Well, we now know that WW2 (like WW1) harmed technological progress. The idea of war being a driver of innovation in the 20th Century is a myth we used to comfort ourselves that some good came out of the stunning amounts of mass murder. It is, however, an illusion. Caused by wishful thinking and the rush of technological advancement that came after the end of the war as the suppressed innovations of the war years, added to scientists and companies and governments once again paying attention to things besides producing the most of whatever weapons systems were practical came together to produce a sudden surge of "new" technology hitting the consumer market. However, this surge after WW2 did not make up for the severe deficit of technological development during the war.

The post-war peak, in other words, was smaller than the war-time trough.

Specific examples include the jet engine (delayed 5-10 years from even military deployment due to the need for piston engine planes NOW), the development of plastics and the development of computers.

The USSR in particular would have been much more advanced. The first electronic computer in the USSR was built in the 50s, to a design devised in the 1930s and then delayed a generation by WW2. The computer was built in a building that didn't even have a roof, since buildings that still had roofs were still in very short supply in the Ukraine at that point. And of course, WW2 led to a bunch of Germans murdering stunning amounts of smart Soviet citizens (and dumb Soviet citizens for that matter).

However, while countries like the USSR, Japan, Germany and the UK will not be ruined by war as they were in OTL, the technological leader would still be the USA. IBM were doing revolutionary stuff in this period, and I don't see anyone else catching up. It is just that in TTL, the US won't lead by as much as they did in OTL.

fasquardon
 
The absence of wars might delay some projects which got on faster in OTL due to major government funding and attention. But in the alternate timelines someone will inevitably find that electronic computing can be useful for business, sooner rather than later. And then the field will develop faster, because of the thousands of businesses which weren't bombed into oblivion or didn't come into existence because their potential founders died in trenches, and because of the additional tens of millions of clients who aren't dead, or are buying luxury items instead of putting every bit of money into building a new home to rebuild the old demolished one.
 

marathag

Banned
Computer science will be far less dominated by English terminology. The Internet will probably be segregated into different languages with little to do with each other. In fact it might be better to think there would be multiple internets than a “single” internet.
USA had the most electronics per capita before the War, no war would not change that. It still will happen first in the USA.

Trailblazers set the terminology
 
Development would probably be significantly slowed. My wife’s grandfather, an electrical engineer, was the project director for Westinghouse’s first true (analog) computer: the Anacom; built in the 40s after the war. He got that position because of the work he did for the Navy developing automated power redistribution capabilities for ships. In the 50s he was President of the American Computer Society. I remember him saying most of the computer guys he dealt with had a Navy background; usually radar. Thus I am going with the idea that military tech development because of WW2 was quite important.
So my viewpoint is very anecdotal and gut based on interpreting the stories of a 90+ year old gentleman who passed away 15 years ago, but that’s my two cents.
 
But there were other uses.
Tube miniaturization came from people wanting portable radios and hearing aids, and ones that could run on lower power. Nobody wanted to lug a 12V leadacid battery around for the tube heater, and 90volt battery for the plate.
So smaller tubes that could run on a 1.5V heater, and 22V for the plate were in demand
Not to mention AT&T wanting smaller, more reliable electronics to support their phone system, or universities wanting smaller or faster machines to support their research work. Already in the 1930s there was quite a lot of interest in building analog differential analyzers for various purposes (some military and some not), and such interest would definitely have continued and most likely spilled over to true general-purpose computers absent the war--after all, computers are more powerful and more flexible than analyzers.

For that matter, Claude Shannon had demonstrated in 1937 that all problems in Boolean algebra could be reduced to circuit diagrams, and of course Alonzo Church and Alan Turing had established the mathematical basis for computation at about the same time (even if this was not recognized for quite some time afterwards). So from a theoretical standpoint everything was there in the 1930s, and all that was needed was investment.

Well, we now know that WW2 (like WW1) harmed technological progress.
There's one exception--nuclear technology. Although there was certainly interest in it even outside of the war effort, there was no way anyone was going to put in the amount of cash needed to develop working "high-power" nuclear reactors and nuclear bombs without the war, at least not so fast as it actually was put in. Though this may not have necessarily been a good thing--a slower and less precipitous development of nuclear technology would likely have led to a better appreciation of its features and foibles, and probably more exploration of alternative paths to using nuclear phenomena than were actually checked due to war or perceived war needs.
 
Development would probably be significantly slowed. My wife’s grandfather, an electrical engineer, was the project director for Westinghouse’s first true (analog) computer: the Anacom; built in the 40s after the war. He got that position because of the work he did for the Navy developing automated power redistribution capabilities for ships. In the 50s he was President of the American Computer Society. I remember him saying most of the computer guys he dealt with had a Navy background; usually radar. Thus I am going with the idea that military tech development because of WW2 was quite important.
So my viewpoint is very anecdotal and gut based on interpreting the stories of a 90+ year old gentleman who passed away 15 years ago, but that’s my two cents.

What would those young men have done if their careers hadn't been derailed by the ravenous need for electrical engineers in the armed forces?

And while the US army gave technical educations to hundreds of thousands of young men (and the GI bill gave university educations to millions) I very much doubt it advanced technology by more than the bankruptcy of Britain, France, Italy, Japan and Germany retarded it. Let alone by the degree that the massive death tolls suffered by Poland, Germany, the Soviet Union, China, Yugoslavia and Japan retarded things.

There's one exception--nuclear technology.

WW2 diverted the focus of research from nuclear power to nuclear bombs. Which have been an absolutely massive drain on the purse of all those who own them. More development going in to reactors could thus have lead to the engineering being more mature when people were building dozens of reactors (meaning safer, more economical power) and later development of the bombs means a later rush to build them in their thousands. So was the OTL path really an advancement over the alternative?

Rocketry arguably would have been slower to develop without WW2. But I don't think it was major enough contributor to offset things like Europe being a generation delayed in its own computer development efforts.

fasquardon
 
WW2 diverted the focus of research from nuclear power to nuclear bombs.
It's hard to tell, because the discovery of fission was almost simultaneous with the beginning of World War II. In any case, a very great many people immediately noted the prospect of a bomb, and started looking into it right away, so I'm not sure there really ever was a moment when "the focus" shifted to nuclear bombs--if people were looking at nuclear reactors, it was as much because they thought that they might have some use for building bombs or at least military applications as because of an interest in generating power.

In any case, though, any effects of "shifting focus" were absolutely dwarfed by the fact that the war made the United States willing to spend unprecedented amounts of cash on what amounted to a basic research project in physics and chemistry. Even a cursory look at other nuclear research projects at the time, which were generally afforded a low priority more in line with what they would have had in a scenario with no war, shows the absolutely decisive effects war priority caused in program pace. You would never have seen the first reactor go online in 1942 without the Manhattan Project. You would never have seen the construction of multiple high-power (for the time) reactors as early as 1944 and 1945 without the Manhattan Project. There was no way any government or private funder would have spent the amount of cash needed to make that happen in the pre-war era. Even after the war, large-scale governmental funding motivated largely by military and diplomatic concerns was needed to develop nuclear reactors as fast as they actually were developed.

Actually, that brings up one other effect that World War II especially but also World War I to a lesser extent had on research--greatly increasing the role of government in funding scientific development. Before those wars, there was a limited amount of governmentally funded research and development, mostly for public health and military purposes. Other fields of science depended on other funding sources such as private donors, corporate research and development labs, university funding, and similar things. If you don't have the wars, this is likely to change much more slowly than IOTL. This will have broad negative effects on research, but especially on certain esoteric fields such as particle physics or space exploration where the projects are costly and somewhat difficult to market relative to, say, medicine. It's hard to predict what the long-term effects of this will end up being, but you may have a serious negative impact on computing without agencies like the NSF and ARPA/DARPA around to fund computing research. Of course AT&T and IBM and so on will also be funding research, but they have their own corporate incentives that may lead them to approaches that are good for them and not as good for everyone else.

More development going in to reactors could thus have lead to the engineering being more mature when people were building dozens of reactors (meaning safer, more economical power) and later development of the bombs means a later rush to build them in their thousands. So was the OTL path really an advancement over the alternative?
I did specifically note this in my post:

Though this may not have necessarily been a good thing--a slower and less precipitous development of nuclear technology would likely have led to a better appreciation of its features and foibles, and probably more exploration of alternative paths to using nuclear phenomena than were actually checked due to war or perceived war needs.

However, you only specified technological "progress," and it's inarguable that nuclear technology advanced much more rapidly thanks to the war than it would have otherwise.
 
Here is how I think technological advancement would go without the World Wars:
1914-1918: Same technological advancement as OTL
1918-1922: 1 year more advanced than OTL [TTL technology around this time would be equivalent to that found between 1919 and 1923 in OTL]
1922-1926: 2 years more advanced than OTL [TTL technology around this time would be equivalent to that found between 1924 and 1928 in OTL]
1926-1930: 3 years more advanced than OTL [TTL technology around this time would be equivalent to that found between 1929 and 1933 in OTL]
1930-1934: 4 years more advanced than OTL [TTL technology around this time would be equivalent to that found between 1934 and 1938 in OTL]
1934-1938: 5 years more advanced than OTL [TTL technology around this time would be equivalent to that found between 1939 and 1943 in OTL]
1938-1942: 6 years more advanced than OTL [TTL technology around this time would be equivalent to that found between 1944 and 1948 in OTL]
1942-1946: 7 years more advanced than OTL [TTL technology around this time would be equivalent to that found between 1949 and 1953 in OTL]
1946-1950: 8 years more advanced than OTL [TTL technology around this time would be equivalent to that found between 1954 and 1958 in OTL]
1950-1954: 9 years more advanced than OTL [TTL technology around this time would be equivalent to that found between 1959 and 1963 in OTL]
1954-1958: 10 years more advanced than OTL [TTL technology around this time would be equivalent to that found between 1964 and 1968 in OTL]
1958-1962: 11 years more advanced than OTL [TTL technology around this time would be equivalent to that found between 1969 and 1973 in OTL]
1962-1966: 12 years more advanced than OTL [TTL technology around this time would be equivalent to that found between 1974 and 1978 in OTL]
1966-1970: 13 years more advanced than OTL [TTL technology around this time would be equivalent to that found between 1979 and 1983 in OTL]
1970-1974: 14 years more advanced than OTL [TTL technology around this time would be equivalent to that found between 1984 and 1988 in OTL]
1974-1978: 15 years more advanced than OTL [TTL technology around this time would be equivalent to that found between 1989 and 1993 in OTL]
1978-1982: 16 years more advanced than OTL [TTL technology around this time would be equivalent to that found between 1994 and 1998 in OTL]
1982-1986: 17 years more advanced than OTL [TTL technology around this time would be equivalent to that found between 1999 and 2003 in OTL]
1986-1990: 18 years more advanced than OTL [TTL technology around this time would be equivalent to that found between 2004 and 2008 in OTL]
1990-1994: 19 years more advanced than OTL [TTL technology around this time would be equivalent to that found between 2009 and 2013 in OTL]
1994-1998: 20 years more advanced than OTL [TTL technology around this time would be equivalent to that found between 2014 and 2018 in OTL]
1998-2002: 21 years more advanced than OTL [TTL technology around this time would be equivalent to that found between 2019 and 2023 in OTL]
2002-2006: 22 years more advanced than OTL [TTL technology around this time would be equivalent to that found between 2024 and 2028 in OTL]
2006-2010: 23 years more advanced than OTL [TTL technology around this time would be equivalent to that found between 2029 and 2033 in OTL]
2010-2014: 24 years more advanced than OTL [TTL technology around this time would be equivalent to that found between 2034 and 2038 in OTL]
2014-2018: 25 years more advanced than OTL [TTL technology around this time would be equivalent to that found between 2039 and 2043 in OTL]
2018-present (2020): 26 years more advanced than OTL [TTL technology around this time would be equivalent to that found between 2044 and (2046) in OTL]
So, as you can see, in this reality, the technology that exists in OTL 2020 would become reality in TTL 1999 (and the technology that exists in TTL 2020 would only be feasible by OTL 2046), and here are the futuristic technologies (to us) that would have been invented by this point in the future:
Eye-controlled technology (to be invented in TTL by 1998)
Paper diagnostics (to be invented in TTL by 1999)
Designer antibiotics (to be invented in TTL by 2002)
Ingestible robots (to be invented in TTL by 2002)
Smart clothing (to be invented in TTL by 2004)
Photonics in space (to be invented in TTL by 2005)
Volcanic mining (to be invented in TTL by 2006)
Spintronics (to be invented in TTL by 2006)
Carbon-breathing batteries (to be invented in TTL by 2006)
Super antivirals (to be invented in TTL by 2007)
Diamond batteries (to be invented in TTL by 2008)
Optogenetics (to be invented in TTL by 2009)
Nano feasibility (to be invented in TTL by 2010)
Cheap solar power (to be invented in TTL by 2010)
Unhackable quantum Internet (to be invented in TTL by 2010)
Biomimetic materials (to be invented in TTL by 2011)
The next evolution of AI (to be invented in TTL by 2012)
Designer molecules (to be invented in TTL by 2012)
3D printing in every home (to be invented in TTL by 2013)
Fully immersive computer interface (to be invented in TTL by 2014)
Self-sufficient energy ecosystem (to be invented in TTL by 2014)
Germ-line genetic modification (to be invented in TTL by 2014)
Genetic computing (to be invented in TTL by 2015)
Holographic pets (to be invented in TTL by 2016)
Microwave rockets (to be invented in TTL by 2016)
Rapid genetic screening (to be invented in TTL by 2018)
Fusion power (to be invented in TTL by 2018)
Space-based solar energy (to be invented in TTL by 2019)
Algorithmic advances (to be invented in TTL by 2019)
So, yeah, you could base computer development without the World Wars off of that.
 
Interesting, why you think the oposite of everyone here?
I think @fasquardon and I would also agree that technological progress would not clearly be behind OTL without the wars, although I certainly would not identify any specific advances that might be discovered sooner or make a specific formula of how much more advanced things might be...
 
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