Both Mehmed II and Suleiman had designs upon Sicily which for the former never came about due to his death and for the latter never came about due to Suleiman's failure to capture Malta. Let's ignore Suleiman's attempt, and posit that Mehmed II instead of landing Otranto, lands in Sicily and manages to capture the island before kicking the bucket, and despite some liberation attempts, Sicily is integrated by the Ottomans by 1490 as a vilayet/eyalet. How would an Ottoman Sicily develop? Though it had been around 400 years since Sicily was under Islamic Rule, it wasn't something new, and Sicily had a very strong trading relation with Epirus which was dominated by the Ottomans as well during this period which was severed otl. How would an Ottoman Sicily develop militarily, societally, religiously and economically?
Development of an Ottoman Sicily?
- Thread starter Sarthak
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While Turkish will have some input to the development of this alternate "Sicilian" language, The bulk of settler to fill the role of garrison and administrator most likely will be Maghrebi and Albanian so it is likely we will see some influence from Arabic & Albanian too.
Administrative wise, it also posible that Sicily may be relegated under the purview of Dey/Pasha of Tunis. This may prove to be interesting for local politic in the region, since Sicilian beys will certainly try to assert their indenpendence from Tunis and try to appeal to Porte for help and legitimacy. The reverse will also true, Allowing the Porte to have more control of the region.
Religion wise, Interior and Northern area of the island will be dominated by Christian holdout while coastal area are most likely where most of Muslim will be found. The fate of Catholicism in the island will also be interesting, since Ottoman never have large number of Catholic as subject (Ottoman Hungary is populated by Protestant). Ottoman system usually try to incorporate local religious administration into their government. So in this case will Ottoman continue to let Papacy control of Sicilian Church despite being a known hostile power to them? Or will there be some sort special arrangement? Or radically but unlikely to happen is they put it under Ecuminical Patriarchate jurisdiction.
Administrative wise, it also posible that Sicily may be relegated under the purview of Dey/Pasha of Tunis. This may prove to be interesting for local politic in the region, since Sicilian beys will certainly try to assert their indenpendence from Tunis and try to appeal to Porte for help and legitimacy. The reverse will also true, Allowing the Porte to have more control of the region.
Religion wise, Interior and Northern area of the island will be dominated by Christian holdout while coastal area are most likely where most of Muslim will be found. The fate of Catholicism in the island will also be interesting, since Ottoman never have large number of Catholic as subject (Ottoman Hungary is populated by Protestant). Ottoman system usually try to incorporate local religious administration into their government. So in this case will Ottoman continue to let Papacy control of Sicilian Church despite being a known hostile power to them? Or will there be some sort special arrangement? Or radically but unlikely to happen is they put it under Ecuminical Patriarchate jurisdiction.
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Unless the Ottomans skipped their attempts to control the Central Europe and went on for more direct control of the Mediterranean Sea, it will by definition strerch their logistics.
Especially when both Spanish and Austrian thrones being held by Habsburgs. They'll coordinate their attacks so thst when the Spanish Armada attacked Sicily and various Mediterranean Islands, the Austrian Army would march down the Balkans.
Especially when both Spanish and Austrian thrones being held by Habsburgs. They'll coordinate their attacks so thst when the Spanish Armada attacked Sicily and various Mediterranean Islands, the Austrian Army would march down the Balkans.
Holding Sicily without turning southern Italy into a frontier zone/Poland like target of frequent raids is gonna be difficult.
Ottoman Sicily would probably end up the preferred destination for Andalusian exiles following the fall of Granada, as it would probably be much more culturally similar to Iberia than the Maghreb.
Ottoman Sicily in 1490 means that the ottomans are in a position to attempt to prevent or reverse the final annexation of Granada- whether they manage it or not is anyone's guess. Because its before the conquest of Hungary, it means they become a much more sea based power.
Ottoman Sicily would probably end up the preferred destination for Andalusian exiles following the fall of Granada, as it would probably be much more culturally similar to Iberia than the Maghreb.
Ottoman Sicily in 1490 means that the ottomans are in a position to attempt to prevent or reverse the final annexation of Granada- whether they manage it or not is anyone's guess. Because its before the conquest of Hungary, it means they become a much more sea based power.
An Ottoman Empire that focused on Thassallcratic control of the Mediterran, as long as they paid their Maghreb and Algerian crews well and inducted their nobles into proper Ottoman Nobility, mightve done the trick.
At the cost of they becoming essentially defensive in the Balkans, not actively try to expand out there.
When Sicily and Malta falls, natural conquests to Sardinia, Corsica, and the Balearics could be done too, securimg the Mediterranean Sea except European Coasts as the Ottoman lake.
Also took Gibraltar ASAP.
Assault in Ottoman position in the balkans was a tough job and Austrian logistics of late 16th century were not upto it. Just look how much slogged Little war in Hungary was. And battle of Djerba proved that even after Lepanto disaster, Ottoman navy was still a force to be reckoned with.
Now my question is Muhammad II would skip Malta and move directly to Sicily. But after Rhodes, no Sultan would perhaps dare to atack Sicily without Malta. Perhaps if we can arrange a different destination for the knights Hospitalar post siege of Rhodes. then it would be easier?
TiberiusCaesar
Banned
How would an Ottoman Sicily develop?
It's pretty grey area. It can go in any direction. The very best scenario is a Bosnia analogue. To clarify about this: Bosnia was as much Ottoman as Macedonia was, but were left to their own affairs much more. It worked well for the Ottoman Empire. The Bosnians could defend themselves against the Habsburgs or invade Croatia without the need of the Ottoman Sultan. Sicily would fit this description. The Province would be tied to Constantinople, thus no Algeria analogue yet still have more responsibilities and concessions that many Ottoman provinces lack. Going an independent route is not within the interest of the Governor, with knowledge that the Habsburgs/Holy League will invade in the absence of Ottoman Authority.
How would an Ottoman Sicily develop militarily, societally, religiously and economically?
Military - It will be heavily militarized society, filled with Albanian, Arab, Berber and Turkish adventurers like Algeria. It will probably have it's own distinct Janissary Corps always working for the Governor of Sicily (and the Sultan if needed). This is necessary as Ottoman Sicily needs the capacity to defend itself when central Ottoman aid is absent. Piracy will be a thing in the 16th and early 17th century.
Societally - Like the Empire was: Millet system. Rome being Ottoman or not means whether the Catholics end up under the theoretical Ottoman Papal authority or something else. Jews will return to Sicily. If the local Catholics do not accept an alternative to Papal authority the Ottomans will expel/execute a lot of the Catholic Clergy for inciting rebellions. Brutal, but history cannot be sugarcoated. This will not so surprisingly incite rebellions, but the lack of success will speed up conversion to Islam. Though I wonder if Greek Orthodoxy is in position to replace Catholicism in the absence of Catholic clergy. But this is the most dramatic scenario for the Church. It is likely that local Bishops will cooperate with Ottoman Authorities on the island.
Linguistically speaking, same but with more Turkish influences. I can't imagine how that will be. The new arrivals will assimilate to the locals though preserve the religion. There will be a "Turkish elite" that is every high ranking Muslim ruling in Sicily and speaking Turkish and Arabic. Like in Egypt.
Religiously - Islam will come from the Balkans so the main Sunni madhab will be Hanafi, for Albanians, Turks and converts. The Arabs and Berbers will be Maliki. Catholicism won't entirely disappear. They will probably remain a majority though a small majority.
Economically - Just like Sicily was before, adding slave trade and piracy too. Due to the size of the population and the existing administration tax will be far more and efficient compared to Bosnia, while also lacking feudalism that the Bosnians had.
I hope you have some use to my answer
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TiberiusCaesar
Banned
The Ottomans did not annex Hungary until the 1540s. That is 60 years after Mehmed II possible conquest. No Ottoman Hungary means Louis II is alive and thus no Habsburg Hungary to march on. If we look at Ferdinand's war against Zapolya, he failed to defend his gains when Suleiman arrived, despite being closer to Vienna. If the Habsburgs move to the Balkans because Hungary lets them do it, Belgrade will be the furthest they reach.
Castile and Aragon invading Ottoman Sicily is a certain possibilty. But there is a lot more needed to describe that scenario, such as the Ottoman position in mainland Italy and how much the fall of Sicily will affect the Granadan War.
Besides: Mediterranean Conquests > Central European Conquests
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TiberiusCaesar
Banned
The Granada War broke out in 1482. If the Ottomans invade Sicily around then (and finish it in 1490) then the whole war might be averted. Ferdinand's realm being endangered by the Ottomans seems to me as a priority over instigating Civil Wars to fully annex Granada. The latter can be done later, the former is hard to reverse if not stopped in time.
Maybe not replaced but I can see them coming back strong. Return to ala Norman Sicily in terms of religious demographics.
There was also the war of Castilian succession a bit earlier and if Ottomans can invade in otranto in1480 they can also attack Just 1 year earlier. This might effect the result. And of course no quick Hungarian relief since Otranto is ignored.
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Would it be safe to assume that the culture of the coasts and lowlands would become substantially different to that of the more mountainous areas? I can see the latter becoming hotspots of anti-Ottoman guerrillas for at least a few decades, similar to Albania during Skanderbeg's time.
As for PODs, I'm thinking of two:
As for PODs, I'm thinking of two:
- First, something (bigger problems with the French, perhaps?) delays Ferdinand's invasion of Hungary, allowing John Zápolya to defeat Jovan Nenad's revolt and consolidate his rule. This means the Ottomans have a buffer state separating them from Austria, rather than a perpetual warzone.
- Second, the Ottomans conquer Malta in 1551. They tried it IOTL, but settled for invading Gozo and enslaving its population instead. Thus Constantinople has a base from which it can conquer Sicily.
There is a fundamental question: the entire medieval Sicilian agricultural system, based on the cultivation of sugar cane and slavery, is in crisis due to climate change and "Atlantic" competition. In order to survive economically, the large Sicilian landowners had to radically change the agricultural system: similarly to Roman times, the focus was on cereal crops, which gave birth to all the strange models of co-management of Sicilian latifundiums. In parallel, the tuna economy develops and thanks to the integration with Tuscany, with the ironworks, the silk industry and with the production of bergamot in southern Calabria, attempts are made to relaunch the ports of Palermo and Messina as a commercial hub.
How does this whole process change with an Ottoman Sicily? I take it for granted that fishing will remain unchanged, but I ask myself a serious problem, which not being an Ottoman expert and economy, I would not be able to solve.
Could the Ottoman Empire be able to manage this agrarian transition? A part of the great Sicilian feudal lords will probably convert to Islam, but a part will flee to Naples or Spain... How could their land ownership be reorganised? Will the Ottoman Empire use Sicily as its granary? Or it will anticipate the reconversion to the production of citrus fruits and lemons by two centuries (I may be wrong, but I take it for granted that there is no boom in viticulture)
Then, assuming that Messina, given that it will become a sort of frontier city, will not develop, it is possible that, as in the time of Balarm, Palermo and partly Syracuse, given the commercial interconnection with the Barbera states, could have a boom, changing both the demographic distribution and the road network of the island...
Finally, the Ottomans are faced with a bizarre reality: how do they deal with the question of parliaments and the strange local tax rules? Do they keep them? Or do they try to abolish them (risking a general revolt every 15/20 years, which with the excuse of the crusade, will surely be supported by Spain or France?)
How does this whole process change with an Ottoman Sicily? I take it for granted that fishing will remain unchanged, but I ask myself a serious problem, which not being an Ottoman expert and economy, I would not be able to solve.
Could the Ottoman Empire be able to manage this agrarian transition? A part of the great Sicilian feudal lords will probably convert to Islam, but a part will flee to Naples or Spain... How could their land ownership be reorganised? Will the Ottoman Empire use Sicily as its granary? Or it will anticipate the reconversion to the production of citrus fruits and lemons by two centuries (I may be wrong, but I take it for granted that there is no boom in viticulture)
Then, assuming that Messina, given that it will become a sort of frontier city, will not develop, it is possible that, as in the time of Balarm, Palermo and partly Syracuse, given the commercial interconnection with the Barbera states, could have a boom, changing both the demographic distribution and the road network of the island...
Finally, the Ottomans are faced with a bizarre reality: how do they deal with the question of parliaments and the strange local tax rules? Do they keep them? Or do they try to abolish them (risking a general revolt every 15/20 years, which with the excuse of the crusade, will surely be supported by Spain or France?)
Maybe Sicily could be an autonomous governorship, similar to the various Barbary States? As for the economy, one thing I'm certain of is that its ports will be full of pirates. I wonder if European slaves could become an important part of the local workforce, or would most of them be sent east instead?
Probably, given that geographically Palermo and Tunis have the same distance from Constantinople: however, I hypothesize, that to take into account the peculiar local situation, there could be a more oligarchic and collegial government.... Or, given that Muslims would always be a minority, wouldn't a solution similar to Wallachia be possible, with a satellite tributary state, through a local noble family of proven loyalty (the Buteras for example) or governed through hospodar fanarioti?
Keep in mind another detail: until 1700 in Sicily there were more African slaves than in the southern colonies of the United States, so much so that one of the patron saints of Palermo, San Benedetto il Moro, was the son of Ethiopian slaves. I do not exclude that African slavery, in an Ottoman Sicily, could last over time.
Two doubts I ask myself: Sicily, given its geographical position, for how long would it remain Ottoman? Until the end of the eighteenth century? Until the mid-nineteenth century? Also because if the Ottoman possession exceeds the mid-eighteenth century, the Ottomans find themselves in the hands of the sulfur question. On the one hand, African slaves could be used in its mines, which, if nationalised, would constitute a very important source of income for Constantinople. On the other hand, however, they would give a reason for Great Britain or France to transform Sicily into a sort of colony...
Another doubt, more stupid than the previous one: the Fatimid mosques, transformed into churches, for example the Cathedral of Palermo (which at the time, not having the neoclassical restructuring, is still recognizable as a mosque) or the Magione, return to their original use, risking popular revolt, or are the Ottomans making the best of a bad situation?
How will the Ottomans deal with the local passion for processions?
Finally, since contacts with Tunis are very close, even though that idiot Emanuele Filiberto di Savoia is not as viceroy, it is probable that the plague of 1624 will break out all the same... Taking for granted that it would be rather unlikely that the whole story would occur of Santa Rosalia, how would the Ottomans handle the issue of contagion and above all, how would they calm local public opinion?
I don't think so, since IIRC Wallachia was seen by Constantinople as not rich enough to bother ruling it directly. Sicily, on the other hand...
I'd say it depends on when the Ottoman decline starts, how severe it is, and whether it is reversed or not - the Janissaries could've been disbanded as soon as 1622, for example.
I don't know enough to respond to the rest of your post.
In regards to the cities, Syracuse, by it's proximity to Epirus and the Ottoman Rumelian Heartland and it's already exhaustive trade links to the region which were severed otl, will become the capital and largest city of the proposed Eyalet of Sicilya.
Also, I doubt the Ottomans would allow a similar situation as Tunis or Algiers to start inn Sicily, due to its proximity to it's Habsburg rivals and due to its wealth as well. It could become increasingly autonomous like Bosnia and Iraq, but still very much a part of the centralized directly controlled Ottoman Empire.
Also, I doubt the Ottomans would allow a similar situation as Tunis or Algiers to start inn Sicily, due to its proximity to it's Habsburg rivals and due to its wealth as well. It could become increasingly autonomous like Bosnia and Iraq, but still very much a part of the centralized directly controlled Ottoman Empire.