Deutschland ist spät dran - Germany is late

I've read some timelines where Germany is united earlier - usually in 1848 at the Frankfurt Assembly, with appropriate butterflies regarding WW1, etc.
Now, my question is whether it would be possible to have a German Unification past its OTL date of 1871. Perhaps the Franco-Prussian War ends in a stalemate with a status quo ante bellum peace, or a Prussian defeat?
Could a unification still happen at a later date, perhaps as late as the early 20th century, or would "Germany" remain a loose collection of squabbling mini-states without the Prussians victory over the French?

- Kelenas
 
Delaying it to the 20C seems a very long shot. German nationalism was pretty fierce and from 1848 on it was clear that Prussia and Austria were going to have it out sooner or later.

My guess is that if it didn't happen as OTL, the next likely date is 1878. With Russia bogged down in the Balkans, it's a good moment for the Austro-Prussian showdown. Big question mark is what France (under Napoleon IV?) will do. If she comes in on the Austrian side, we still get a united Germany, but a very different one from OTL's.
 
Prussia/Norddeutscher Bund alone is liable to remain Russia's junior partner. Nevertheless, Prussia will industialise considerably (the main centres of OTL Germany's industry 1870 - 1914 all were situated in Prussia).
Thus, a clash between Austria-Hungary and Russia over some Balkans question may trigger a forced unifaction.
Whether France has the balls to intervene against a Prussia/Norddeutscher Bund allied to Russia remains to be seen.
 
Prussia/Norddeutscher Bund alone is liable to remain Russia's junior partner. Nevertheless, Prussia will industialise considerably (the main centres of OTL Germany's industry 1870 - 1914 all were situated in Prussia).
Thus, a clash between Austria-Hungary and Russia over some Balkans question may trigger a forced unifaction.
Whether France has the balls to intervene against a Prussia/Norddeutscher Bund allied to Russia remains to be seen.


Russia and Prussia needn't necessarily be allied. They never were during Bismarck's wars, though their relations were friendly.

Not that it really matters. If Russia's performance in the Turkish war is similar to OTL's she will be in no shape to fight anyone else.
 

Susano

Banned
One can certainly delay German unification. For how long is a difficult question, though - we after all have no comparative data from real histroy to base our estimates on ;)

But with the NGC and the Zollverein firmly in place, I dont think the three south german states (four if you count the southern parts of Hesse-Darmstadt) can hold out as independent states much longer. Hell, Baden already did apply to join the NCG in 1869 and got rejected, and I think it would be ready to do so later on, too. It didnt get all that well along with the other two southern states, anyway. And Baden and Württemberg? Prussia has the whip hand in the Zollverein, and could certainly use it against just two further states.

Of course - only if Prussia wants to do so, and I think thats the problem. In such a scenario, with no accidental war with France (and I see it as such), Bismarck may well be the main hinderance for further German unification. Him, and maybe King William I of Prussia. Both after all didnt want an united Germany, but a Greater Prussia - and they had achieved that, the NGC was just that. But Williams heir, Frederick III, was somewhat associated with the national liberals (far less then it is often made out to be, but that isnt all that important now), and in any case greatly dislikes Bismarck.

So if William dies as per OTL 1888, then Frederick III, or if he also dies in the same year as per OTL William II might certainly set in motion events to lead to the unification of Germany. Of course, it might also happen earlier: With the NGC being nearly all of Germany-outside-Austria already, and the Zollverein in place, people might begin to question the sense of the setup. The topic might certainly come up in the Zollverein conferences. So it might happen in the 70s already regardless.

And there wont be a Prussian-Austrian showdown. That already happened in 1866, the matter is settled, and sealed with the Austrian-Hungarian Ausgleich. Austria has form that point onwards anymore no place in Germany anymore, save for the possibility of the breakdown of the Double Monarchy. im unsure about Russia. An 80s without united Germany will be a different situation, diplomatically, after all. OTOH, France might certainly go to war. IBC argues eloquently that Napoleon III wasnt all that much for war, but he wasnt in control anymore (hed still be Emperor, but in the Liberal Empire not as political dictator anymore). So whatever government is in place in France will most certainly start a war, as they did IOTL. The big question is - will the Liberal Empire governments have used the time to reform and modernise their troops or not? If yes, then a French victroy is the most likely outcome, if not then a German victroy as IOTL is pretty much assured.
 
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