Deus Vulted it Different: A real fourth Crusade

Interesting TL so far - I wonder as much as the Islamic world is reeling from this, if we might see the Spanish Kingdoms finish the Reconquesta earlier.

Alternately, we could see mass Muslim emigration from the conquered territories to the Iberian peninsula turning it into Fortress al-Andalus.
 
Late Middle ages
Regarding Albigensian and Baltic Crusades -not sure but doubt it would be butterflied.

Ifriqia does not remain stable under Latin rule, and after its first Catholic king dies, the realm breaks down into civil war. The Knights of Saint John took control of the Tripolitanian coast, and the Muslim successors of the Hafsids take control of the Tunisian hinterland, while Tunis and Bizerte and the coast is taken over by Sicilians.

Egypt soon collapses , as after a succession crisis, the Copts install a dynasty of their own. Lower Egypt being populated by Arabs, Jews, Greeks, Italians and Copts, this area now comes under control of the urban aristocracy , mostly Italians and Greeks. Ultimately, we can see an Upper Egyptian monarchy, including Cairo and southern parts of the Delta. Lower Egypt is divided into a handful of city-states: Alexandria, Damietta and Rosetta.

The Ilkhanate manages to be more stable than its OTL counterpart, with most of the nomadic element convertimg to Nestorianism (although some Buddhists remain in the eastern parts).
The urban elements are also mostly Nestorian, but with considerable Muslim, Zoroastrian and Jewish elements.
The rural population is dwindled, but remains mostly Muslim, apart from areas like Yazd, Kerman or Mazandaran, which are Zoroastrian, and Urmia and Iraqi Piedmont which is Nestorian.

The Crusader states continue their struggles, subdue the Alawites. Gradually, a demographic shift occurs, with Christians becoming majority in most of the crusader realms
 
Political map of the world in AD 1444: Taken from EU4 basemap, with following differences:
  • Purple in Tunisia: Kingdom of Carthage, in p.u. with the Crown of Aragon
  • Monastic State of Tripolitania, held by the Knights of Saint John
  • Cyrenaica: independent realm, ruled by exiled Latin kings of Egypt.
  • Alexandria: independent city-state, bordered to the east by Venetian Egypt.
  • Coptic Kingdom of Egypt
  • Kingdom of Jerusalem, to encompass Israel, Jordan and Sinai
  • County of Tripoli and Duchy of Sidon ( new emergent state, also known as Lebanon)
  • Kingdom of Syria, to include Principality of Antioch and County palatine of Emessa.
  • Beduin chiefdom of Tadmur
  • A large Byzantine empire, with Bulgaria on its borders.
  • A Sultanate of Rum struggling for survival
  • Armenian Kinfom of Cilicia
  • A slightly less successful Timurid dynasty
  • Ilkhanate remnants in Iraq and Tabriz
  • Independent Soqotra
Countries Old World 1444.png
 
And religions and denominations in 1444
Religion 1444 small.png

We can see ATL Catholic Tripolitania and pockets in Tunisia, as well as Lebanon, Jerusalem, Gaza and one of the ports in Egypt. The Orthodox have stronger presence in Anatolia and the Levant, as well as Alexandria. The Myaphysites (Oriental Orthodox) dominate the entire Nile valley, and the Armenians extend all the way to Adana.
Unlike in OTL, Nestorians got a strong presence in Upper Mesopotamia, Iranian Azerbaijan, and Khuzestan. The mountains of Afghanistan and Tajikistan were the areas of refuge, where Nestroians fled during the conquests of Timur.
Also Zoroastrians have a stronger presence in Persia, and there some Jews in Egypt and Iraq. Futhermore , we can see Waldenisians in Piedmont, and Finnic pagans throughout northern Europe. Samogitia has somehow retained to its pagan roots, although this is due to change...
 
What will most probably happen: resurhence of the Rhomaics, collapse of rump Ilkhanate, some sort of unification in the Levant.

Cultural development:
An Ifriqian language is preserved around Gafsa, being South Romance.
A variation thereof, with many Italian and Maltese influences also appears in Tripolitiania.
Egypt sees the revival of Coptic, with the coast still using Greek as lingua franca.
The coast and city in Jerusalem develops a Gersamien identity, while the inland are mostly Aramaic speaking Orthodox.
Lebanon is mostly Maronite, while the Syrian coast experiences a resurgence of Greek, with Aramaic being revived in the hinterland.
 
wew, will Islam even recover in this timeline? Is there anywhere left for them to take a stand? Between both Mesopotamia plus Egpyt gone, with the Zorostrains wanked and the Mongols....
 
I hate to nitpick, but.. this timeline seems pretty implausible to me.
Here's a spectacular series, I highly reccomend it for research.
 
Greco-Venetian war
A major event in the East Mediterranean during the late 15th century was the Greco-Venetian war. The Greek goal was to reconquer Crete, and , if possible also to seize Cyrenaica. The Venetians on the otherhand wanted to make their own playground in the East Mediterranean basin. To achieve this, they would try to disembark in Morea, and build foritfacations on the Isthmus of Corinth, while also try to persuade Bulgarians to attack from the North and Turks from the East.

On the other hand, the Rhoman Empire was looking for allies willing to attack Venice: Hungary to attack Dalmatia, Serbia to seize Cattaro (which would also have to deal with Bulgaria, though), Egypt to seize Venetian holdings in Lower Egypt. In the terrafirma, it was Milan who would employ most of Venetian armies.

When the war began in 1452, Venice had the upper hand on the sea, and managed to occupy a large part of the Peloponessus, while occupying many islands in Aegean as well. The Copts managed to take over Damietta and Rosetta, while the Cyrenaica (ruled by the disowned Latinate former monarchs of Egypt) sided with Venice, and helped defend Alexandria. Meanwhile, a large Greek force was busy defending western Anatolia from the Turks, and unfortunately , their defences on the Halys proved weak.

A large Bulgarian force also marched southwards into Upper Thrace, seizing Phillipople, and towards Hadrianople. This seemed to be a dirct threat to the capital itself. To deal with the problems, Serbians were called, and marched from Niš towards Sofia.
Meanwhile Milan and Venice crushed in Italy, enabling Hungary to take control of the Dalmatian hinterland on behalf of the Kingdom of Croatia, which has been in personal union with the Crown of Saint Stephen for a couple of centuries.

In Africa, the Copts left the siege of Alexandria be, and rather attacked Cyrenaica. In northern Anatolia, it was decided that all who could be spared from the garrison of the coastal towns in Pontus , should march southwards and try to attack the Turkish forces from the rear- this proved to be a brilliant idea, as their forces were gathered in southwestern Anatolia.

Not long afterwards, Hungarians marched to Istria and were ready to continue towards Aquilea. In the Balkans , Serbs and Greeks were fighting the Bulgarians. Both Byzantium and Venice were in a bad shape. Ultimately, the result was more-less status quo,
with:
  • Stalemate in Italy
  • Hungary taking the Dalmatian hinterland, and Venice keeping the islands , Zadar, Split and Trogir
  • Venice keeps Cattaro, Shkoder, Durres, Cephalonia, Zakynthos, Crete
  • Venice takes Peloponessus and Naxos.
  • Serbs take Vidin, Byzantines take Sofia.
  • The war in Anatolia continues, ultimately the Turks are defeated and integrated into the Empire.
  • In Africa, Alexandria remains a merchant republic, enclaved in the Coptic kingdom
 
Rhoman revenge
The Italian wars meant a weakening of the Italian peninsula, and this meant also Venice. By 1512, Venice was exhausted by war against the French. The Rhomaic empire took advantage of the fact, as more trees have been planted to make wood for new fleet, the Greek navy was being more and more prepared. Furthermore, conversion of the Turks was going at a reasonable rate.
Meanwhile Cyprus was increasingly under Rhoman influence, and its independence was getting nominal at least. Alexandria was surrendered itself to the Rhoman empire, face-to-face being annexed by Coptic Egypt. This has antagonized again the Copts, who are once more open and ready for a deal with Venice.
The next Greco-Venetian war saw a brisk amphibious Rhomaic campaign, stomring the Peloponessus and the Aegean islands. Crete was conquered within a week, and the Greek fleet continues in attacking the Ionian islands.

In the Levant, the Aq Qoyunlu empire has disintegrated, with Armenia securing the highlands, while Aleppo and Jazira disintegrated into a number of competing petty emirates. This situation resulted in the Kingdom of Syria taking over the Emirate of Aleppo just recently, in 1493. Consequently, the Kingdom of Syria feels increasingly threatened by Rhomaic consolidation. A setback for the Rhomaics would have been beneficial to them, prompting their entry on the Venetian side. However, Cilicia, threatenned by both, and acting as a buffer state, remains neutral, and no direct engagements occur.

Egypt, now allied to Venice, besieges Alexandria. The Empire decides to launch a two-fold campaign in North Africa: Firstly, the contingents which captured Crete would land in Cyrenaica and secure it, while a larger force would try to relieve Alexandria.

Furthermore, a Dyrrhacium and Shkoder fall into Greek hands. Venice now has to surrender all its possessions beyond the Strait of Otranto- and loses its rank as a trade empire. The Copts, on the otherhands, are forced to surrender a large part of the Delta to the Empire.

On the other side of the Mediterranean, the Spanish are pressing hard to continue the Reconquista further south , accross the Gibraltar strait. Portuguese possession being on the Atlantic coast and Spanish on the Mediterranean .The result was an increased colonization of North Africa, with Spanish settlers flooding into towns like Oran and Bejaia.

That being said, Spanish posessions in the New World are more scarce. In this timeline its Aragon who becomes rich, as after the defeat of Venice, Aragonese merchants pass across the Suez Isthmus through the Red Sea, and to India.
 
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