Determined to Destroy Us - An Axis Victory Cold War TL

[karatachi]

Goring is going to die soon, isn't he?

 

[SirPaperweight]

Even in the Ghettos you had Jews who collaborated in an attempt to make things better for themselves and their families. Certainly in the non-German parts of Africa this will work relatively well, and even in Nazi occupied Africa it will be better to be a slave supervisor than a grunt worker. Even if the South Africans don't kill off blacks like the Germans are wont to do, limiting food, forced sterilization (vasectomies are quick and easy even in the 1940s/50s), abortions, will do quite nicely to make sure the black population is what is desired for labor and servitude. I can the blacks of South Africa having some actual slaves and the rest in severe apartheid.

The reality is that even if the South Africans don't go wild killing blacks, they will have no trouble in suppressing actual rebellion or slave uprisings with unlimited force. A mob, even if some have guns, against a trained military force, will not do well. What do think will happen if a mob charging down the street is met not with tear gas, not even gun fire but flame throwers. Nobody, but nobody is going to advance against that.

As far as immigration, you may see some whites from the USA or elsewhere go to South Africa because of their beliefs, you may have some "semi-Aryans" allowed to go to South Africa by the Reich who are not quite up to snuff for Germanization.

The Ghettos? The Nazis were able to find a steady supply of collaborators in the camps. The numbers they were able to get for their camp collaborators, their Kapo system, could be as high as 10% of the population of any given camp.

Finding enough people willing to torment their fellows for a couple of privileges was so easy that the SS was able to efficiently run their camps even when having almost no actual presence their, leaving most of the work to the Kapos.

Another thing to consider with regards to German African policy is that the Nazis were staunch romantics at heart. Hitler himself was a big fan of Karl May, who wrote romantic adventure stories set in exotic locations. Whilst they won't turn around and declare that Africans are all right, I can see them developing an ideological hierarchy of different

It helps that there are certain African ethnicities that have some sort of ties to Judaism, namely the Igbo and Ethiopians, who both have Jewish communities, and I believe it was Kanem-Bornu who believed they were descended from either Jews or Assyrians. This would serve as a good justification for pointing to certain groups and saying that they are corrupted by Judaism and thus need to be purged and then pointing to others and declaring them "natural and pure" Africans.

All of this would provide a useful ideological fig-leaf for establishing a strata of loyal African ethnic groups who could take the lead in administering the colonies for them, whose loyalty they would reward with the wealth and land of those races that were disloyal or otherwise deemed degenerate. This approach certainly isn't without precedent, such as the British who identified "martial races" to serve as colonial soldiers or in Rwanda, where one of the main causes of the genocide lies in the Belgians taking the previously quite fluid categories of Hutu and Tutsi and turning them into a rigid hierarchy.

I feel that the idea of creating an Africa of pure noble savages who are vassals to the Aryan race would be something that Nazi Germany could do, both from an ideological standpoint as well as from a practical standpoint, as this would makes holding and administering the territory a lot easier instead of occupying it all and waging a war of extermination whilst they're also still focused on completing Generalplan Ost. It would also provide a potential government structure and ruling elite that could fully take over in the event that they are forced to abandon the colonies in a way that could be spun as part of the long-term plan of the 1,000 year Reich. In the event of decolonisation the subsequent ruling elites would probably still be loyal and dependent on German military support against the threat of uprisings and reprisals from the subjugated ethic groups.

I think I'm going to reconsider exactly how the Nazis are managing their African colonies. Less direct rule, more reliance on local collaborators. But that won't be important until we actually get to the first of the Africa updates.

The problem with that is that Germany did not have a command economy, and while I agree with you about debt after the war even a full default isn't enough to cause an entire empire to collapse.

True, "command economy" is too strong of a phrase. Still, the Nazis nationalized numerous industries and took ownership of hundreds of businesses. They had a generally anti-business outlook, one that was recognized by Albert Speer in his memoirs.

Actually, a kind of state socialism seemed to be gaining more and more ground, furthered by many of the party functionaries. They had already managed to have all plants owned by the state distributed among the various party districts and subordinated to their own district enterprises. In particular the numerous underground plants, which had been equipped and financed by the state, but whose directors, skilled workers, and machinery had been provided by private industry, seemed destined to fall under state control after the war. 14 Our very system of industrial direction in the interests of war production could easily be-come the framework for a state-socialist economic order. The result was that our organization, the more efficient it became, was itself providing the party leaders with the instruments for the doom of private enterprise.

Yes, but doesn't Nazi Germany kind of have a (literally) captive market with its fascist puppet states in Europe? Not to mention its alliance with Indonesia, South Africa, and Bose's India.

To an extent, yes. But compared to America's partners, they aren't particularly large markets. Additionally, Berlin has no desire to help build an industrial economy in allied nations, something that the US is doing via the Jackson Plan. By promoting the creation of a modern economy in states like Brazil and China, Washington is increasing demand for consumer goods, goods that are manufactured in the US.

I think there are a number of the groups that may accept Nazi assistance now and work with them begrudgingly, but in 20-30 years sing a different tune. Many Muslims, for example, might appreciate their European occupiers brought low and work with Germany to gain their autonomy, but later on become sickened by German attacks on Muslims in North Africa and become less forgiving as the Reich's ability to buy oil decreases. South Africans are willing to join arms with fellow White Supremacists, but as the decades wear on and they refuse to outright murder all the people they oppress (and as weapons and assistance from Germany dries up), they may not be ruled by White Supremacists any longer. Some Latin Americans may take the opportunity to throw off yankee imperialism and hold their noses at the thought of working with Nazis now, but denounce it later as the opportunity to gain anything from Germany recedes and the few Allied war crimes (like Japan) fade into the past.

It's a mix of morality and economics, with a strong focus on economics.

Its worth remembering that the Nazis' crimes are all out in the open by now. Anyone considering seeking German assistance will remember that the Nazis stabbed the Soviets in the back, conquered European Russia, and began a campaign of genocide against the Slavs. That level of evil has consequences.

Whenever you get around to posting an updated map for 1960, do you think you could also post a list of Axis and Rio Pact aligned countries?

I will, as well as a list of nuclear powers and how many weapons they have. I'll try and post that later today, but I have work soon so it may be tomorrow.

Loving the timeline so far, though I wonder if they'll still be a Cuban Revoultion, and if Castro might try to join up with the Nazi's instead of the Soviets. Also, I would be interested to see a different Kennedy brother still manage to take on the mantle of Presidency in this timeline, if possible. If Joseph Kennedy Jr. is still alive in this timeline, he could have been the one to run for presidency would would be fascinating, and would be an interesting nod to the book Fatherland as well now that I think about it. Though considering the current problems with the Democrat's in the timeline, would he switch over to the Republican's?

Castro has already taken power in Cuba, with the blessing of the United States. Better to ally with a capitalist republic than a genocidal totalitarian racial dictatorship.

 

[SirPaperweight]

Interlude: Gunrunner

The manufacture, sale and distribution of weapons both legal and illegal is today among the largest industries on Earth. Weapons that are mostly manufactured in the Americas and East Asia find their way into valuable markets in Africa, Europe and Asia. The origins of this trade are political in nature, the result of unintended consequences of Cold War schemes. The UK and US were deeply invested in promoting and supporting antifascist independence struggles, especially in Africa. However, anti-German militants lacked weapons, and there were few ways to directly ship guns to Axis Africa. To be able to more fully supply local guerrillas, Washington and London needed a middleman of sorts on the continent, a state willing and able to covertly smuggle arms across the border.

As it turns out, that was hardly a problem. The remains of the British colonial empire were starting to come apart, and newly-free nations like Ghana, Nigeria, Kenya and Uganda were more than willing to assist the Rio Pact. The arms trade enriched these nations, and quickly weapons started pouring in via the ports of Lagos, Accra and Mombasa. Soon, a booming market for arms emerged in the so-called "gunrunner republics," and local smugglers were willing to undergo great danger if it meant making a tidy profit. The governments themselves were enriched off the arms market, too, selling weapons to whoever would buy without question or comment.

Of course, Axis authorities attempted to control the borders and stem the flow of arms into their part of Africa. However, properly securing the borders required a commitment of money and manpower that the Axis was unwilling to meet. It was expensive to properly fortify colonial possessions; even relying on local collaborators seemed too costly to be worthwhile, especially when other projects promised a greater return on investment. This was especially a problem in French Africa, where borders were often so porous that entire convoys of weapons could pass by without any worry of being stopped. By the mid-1960s, the global arms trade connected manufacturers in places like the Midwest, Northern England, Eastern China, and Mexico City to smugglers across continents, enriching all involved.

The emergence of such an enormous arms industry certainly helped achieve the Rio Pact's immediate goals - militants in colonial Africa were increasingly able to stand up to their overlords - but it also created a monster that could not be controlled. Weapons manufactured in the Rio Pact spread across the entire world, and led to the formation of a rich industry of illicit arms. Eventually, illegal manufactories popped up across the world to satisfy the ever-growing demand for weapons. By 2000, the market in illegal arms was worth more than every other black market on Earth. It remains like that to this day.

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This update leaves a few questions unanswered, and hints at what might come in the future. That's intentional, and as this TL progresses, you'll hopefully see why there is such a large demand for weapons.

 

[Alpha-King98760]

That was awesome!!!

 

[traveller76]

Let's not forget that guns can go one way and drugs/minerals/people can go the other. The gunrunner republics of today will become the narco-states/off-shore tax havens of tomorrow.

 

[Bookmark1995]

-snip-

Epic update.

Based on your description of the future, gunrunning will create serious blowback, since whole nations will build economies off of dealing guns with no questions asked.

In fact, I imagine gunrunners being a common stock character in ITTL fiction: during the Cold War, they could be portrayed as heroic figures helping Africans gain freedom, corrupt sociopaths, or amoral individuals looking to make a quick buck.

 

[Byz]

These are some interesting consequences, and certainly not a positive for this world. The implications here seem to suggest there will be a big market for guns in post-Reich Europe, too....

 

[Alpha-King98760]

What's Ngo Dinh Diem up to?

 

[Enigmajones]

Good update, interesting to see the development. Can't wait to see a post on the role of German supported natives in Africa. Whats Portugal's stance at the moment, in regard to Angola and Mozambique.

 

[sloreck]

Imagine that the Allies must be providing protection for the African states not occupied by the Nazis or the Axis, otherwise you'd see the Germans/Axis doing more than some cross border SOF raids.

 

[Redshank Galloglass]

China sounds like it's formed a kind of left communism here.
Good TL.

 

[SirPaperweight]

Interlude: World Map and Other Data, 1960

​

I may have missed something while making this; it's hard keeping track of all the changes.

Anyway, the Reich has expanded in the last five years, gobbling up Norway, Sweden and Denmark - all integral parts of Germany, according to Nazi theorists. Germany proper also now includes most of coastal Ostland and a strip of Ukraine reaching to Gotenland. These territories are now fully Germanized and are developed enough so that they can be absorbed into the Reich. Hermann Göring's administrative forms created subdivisions of the RKs that, while mostly arbitrary squiggles on a map, are helpful to efficiently manage the colonies of the East.

In Asia, the corpse of Japan has been divided between the USSR, PRC and USA. While things look up for Suslov and Mao, certain pressures may make life difficult for both of them over the next few years...

In Africa, the British colonial empire is slowly unraveling, with independence movements finding success in Nigeria and Ghana. The Axis nations, however, stubbornly refuse to give up their colonies despite mounting pressure from the local population to do so.

The Rio Pact has expanded since its founding, accepting Australia, New Zealand, Colombia, Chile, Cuba, Uruguay and Bolivia into its ranks by 1960. The Axis, however, has not grown at all since the Treaty of Vienna, although talks are in progress to include South Africa and possibly some nations in the Middle East.


Rio Pact (Transatlantic Mutual Defense Treaty Organization)

1952 (Treaty of Rio de Janeiro)

• United States
• United Kingdom
• Canada
• Mexico
• Guatemala
• Nicaragua
• Honduras
• Costa Rica
• Panama
• Haiti
• Dominican Republic
• Venezuela
• Ecuador
• Brazil
• Peru

1955

• Cuba
• Australia
• New Zealand

1957

• Colombia
• Chile

1959

• Uruguay
• Bolivia

European Axis (League of Intercontinental Cooperation and Collective Security)

1950 (Treaty of Vienna)

• Germany
• Italy
• France
• Spain
• Portugal
• Denmark
• Norway
• Sweden
• Finland
• Slovakia
• Hungary
• Romania
• Croatia
• Serbia
• Bulgaria
• Montenegro
• Albania

In 1960, the Third Reich owns a small but respectable majority of the world's nuclear weapons. Since the first nuclear tests, the UK and Italy have both tested atomic bombs, and South Africa, Brazil, the Indias, the USSR and China all have active nuclear programs in various stages of development.

GREATER GERMANIC REICH: 10,742

UNITED STATES: 8,309

UNITED KINGDOM: 63

KINGDOM OF ITALY: 58

WORLD TOTAL: 19,172


And finally, a list of US presidents so far.

1933-1939: Franklin D. Roosevelt/Burton K. Wheeler (Democratic)
def. 1932: Herbert Hoover/Charles Curtis (Republican)
def. 1936: Alf Landon/Frank Knox (Republican)

1939-1949: Burton K. Wheeler/Louis Ludlow (Democratic)
Def. 1940: John Bricker/Wendell Willkie (Republican)
Def. 1944: Robert A. Taft/Arthur Vandenberg (Republican)

1949-1957: Thomas Dewey/Earl Warren (Republican)
Def. 1948: Harry Truman/Alben Barkley (Democratic)
Def. 1952: W. Averell Harriman/Adlai Stevenson (Democratic)

1957-????: Earl Warren/Henry Cabot Lodge Jr. (Republican)
Def. 1956: Richard Russel Jr./Harry F. Byrd (Democratic), Hubert Humphrey/Pat Brown (Progressive Democratic)

 

[John Dusk]

GREATER GERMANIC REICH: 1,742

Why does the Reich have this number of nukes when IOTL by this point the USSR had over 3,000?

 

[karatachi]

Why does the Reich have this number of nukes when IOTL by this point the USSR had over 3,000?

Distrust of Jewish Physics.
Heisenberg getting confused.

 

[The Congressman]

Wow, that's a massive disparity in arms

 

[Shogo]

It does seem a little strange . . . Pretty sure Germany developed nukes first in this timeline, so it's not like they were playing catch up like the Soviets were in OTL. I'd agree with the idea that Germany should have more than 1742 nukes.

===============

And after seeing an updated map and the list of Axis and Rio Pact nations . . .

I'll go ahead and mention which nations I think could realistically join the Axis if the Axis was going to grow. I've already talked about most of them, so there will be a bit of repetition.

Most of the joiners would be in the Middle East and Central Asia.

Based on various secret negotiations and the like . . . I believe that Egypt, Palestine, Syria, and Iraq would all join the Axis. Given things like Syrian claims on Lebanon not being dropped until 1980 in OTL, I don't believe that Lebanon will be an independent nation in TTL.

As I said in an earlier post, I'm actually kind of surprised that hasn't already happened.

I also believe that Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Bose's India would all willingly join the Axis. (What do people call the two Indias?)

They could also probably get Saudi Arabia on their side by offering to support them in claiming Oman, Yemen, and the British held parts of the Arabian Peninsula. Hell, relations are probably already good after the Germans seem to have taken steps to ensure they get Jordan and Kuwait.

Given that they are surrounded by the Axis, I'd wager that they should be able to coerce Turkey into joining the Axis as well.

As for the rest of the world . . . Indonesia should also be part of the Axis. South Africa is probably going to join it as well. (It was even discussed in the update.) The only other nation I think might actually join the Axis would be Argentina, especially if the Axis supported their claims to the Falkland Islands. But they're just a maybe.

===============

tl;dr

I think Germany should have more nukes.

I also think it's likely that Egypt, Palestine, Syria, Iraq, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bose's India, and Indonesia will join the Axis. There might be a chance that Argentina could join as well. The only nation among them that would have to be forced or coerced would be Turkey, though they might preempt such fuckery and join of their own free will. Their position is just too tenuous otherwise.

 

[Perfidious Albion]

The power that developed nuclear weapons second having more than ten times as many nuclear weapons as the power that got there first does sound rather dodgy, yes. If anything, if there were such a disparity, surely it's likelier to be the other way round.

 

[varyar]

As far as the nuclear issue goes, a combination of Nazi bureaucratic infighting and imperial overstretch such as the world has seldom seen seems to be sufficient to explain why America has overtaken the Reich.

 

[Perfidious Albion]

As far as the nuclear issue goes, a combination of Nazi bureaucratic infighting and imperial overstretch such as the world has seldom seen seems to be sufficient to explain why America has overtaken the Reich.

That doesn't work because, if there was a tenth as much administrative failure as in OTL, the Nazis would never have obtained nuclear weapons in the first place. In OTL they were such a long long long long long way off.

 

[Pyramus]

On the Nuclear Weapon disparity:
Does it really matter that America can destroy Germany 50 times but Germany can only destroy America once?
Maybe the Nazis don't see it as worth the effort.