Destination: The Moon--in search of ideas

Some time ago, I started a timeline that petered out, where a meteor strike in 1876 impells a string desire in the USA that it not happen again, with a consequent empahsis on observing and understanding the skies. When The Last Hope is finished, I hope to start it up fresh.

Assuming a significant budget, but not utterly ridiculous, and a population willing to pay some taxes for the project long term, how much faster could various discoveries and technologies be made.

Any time the United States Astro-Defense Service is threatened with budget cuts, the 2 1/2 mile crater where Lincoln, NH used to be is brought up. The amount spent can be debated, but neither party will admit to wanting to end the program.

When do the first spin-offs start showing up?
 

Driftless

Donor
Wouldn't one of the first steps be to estimate the potential extent of the problem? Basically, what other crap is headed this way - and when... If your starting point is 1876, then larger scale optical observatories to do some four dimensional mapping. Separate apparent stationary objects from those that move and begin to estimate the moving objects paths.

That would require significant investment in:
* Optical glass refinement for improved precision
* Alternative telescope technology from Galilean or Keplerian types
* A better means of tracking large volumes of data that can account for three-dimensional placement and tracking changes over time and extrapolating future path. Given the technology limits of the time, an early human network of distributed calculations by repeatable mechanical process.
 
Wouldn't one of the first steps be to estimate the potential extent of the problem? Basically, what other crap is headed this way - and when... If your starting point is 1876, then larger scale optical observatories to do some four dimensional mapping. Separate apparent stationary objects from those that move and begin to estimate the moving objects paths.

That would require significant investment in:
* Optical glass refinement for improved precision
* Alternative telescope technology from Galilean or Keplerian types
* A better means of tracking large volumes of data that can account for three-dimensional placement and tracking changes over time and extrapolating future path. Given the technology limits of the time, an early human network of distributed calculations by repeatable mechanical process.

You're right. Those technologies, coupled with funding for manpower would be the most pressing need. It would be decades before they could ever hope to DO anything about approaching meteors (heck, not much we can do now). Beyond the detection and tracking of such objects, the project might yield an earlier emphasis on civil defense shelters.

Assuming the detection showed that the impact of dangerously large objects was likely, there would likely be some earlier push into (large) rockets or superguns (very long range cannons) at least theoretically capable of hitting something up there. But they'd almost certainly find that, even if they could get a 'missile' into space, getting it to actually hit the target was exceedingly difficult (again, this is hard today) and that, even if they did, they couldn't do enough damage to destroy a truly dangerous object.
 
Wouldn't one of the first steps be to estimate the potential extent of the problem? Basically, what other crap is headed this way - and when... If your starting point is 1876, then larger scale optical observatories to do some four dimensional mapping. Separate apparent stationary objects from those that move and begin to estimate the moving objects paths.

That would require significant investment in:
* Optical glass refinement for improved precision
* Alternative telescope technology from Galilean or Keplerian types
* A better means of tracking large volumes of data that can account for three-dimensional placement and tracking changes over time and extrapolating future path. Given the technology limits of the time, an early human network of distributed calculations by repeatable mechanical process.

I had figured on exactly this--first find out how big the problem IS. Glass and telescope development is part of what I'd thought of.
Hi end telescopes were and are a one-off item, not mass produced. I wonder if something very good (for the time) but not the top of the line could be semi mass produced at a reduced cost compared to the individual cutting edge scopes. In some years, a second generation skywatch telescope comes along, and is likewise built in some quantity.

Improved optics and computation capabilities will also lead to improved fire control as a spin off. Perhaps improved photography as well.

I'm continuously hearing the Difference Engine and Analytical Engine discussed; might the precision of the 1880's compared to Babbage's time allow for them to be built? (If it's seen as critical to the project, funding will be available)

The program will be coordinated by the navy, at least at first, for constitutional reasons. The army can't have money allocated fr more than 2 years at a time, the navy is under no such restrictions, and a project like this is a long term thing.

You're right. Those technologies, coupled with funding for manpower would be the most pressing need. It would be decades before they could ever hope to DO anything about approaching meteors (heck, not much we can do now). Beyond the detection and tracking of such objects, the project might yield an earlier emphasis on civil defense shelters.

Assuming the detection showed that the impact of dangerously large objects was likely, there would likely be some earlier push into (large) rockets or superguns (very long range cannons) at least theoretically capable of hitting something up there. But they'd almost certainly find that, even if they could get a 'missile' into space, getting it to actually hit the target was exceedingly difficult (again, this is hard today) and that, even if they did, they couldn't do enough damage to destroy a truly dangerous object.

There's nothing that could be done to stop or deflect them, but this is a time when people think they can do anything. They will work on it, or at least on defining the problem to the point of knowing what to do. Civil defense shelters--probably not. No sheltr concievable could protect people from something that blasts a hole that big in New Hampshire granite. Evacuation--perhaps. Plans for the aftermath of a horrible event--also possible.

Meanwhile, fruitless attempts to design or build a way of getting up there are almost certain.

Meanwhile, the facination with the meter crater in New Hampshire would fade a lot faster in Europe than in the USA.

With a June impact, presidential politics in the election of 1876 might get interesting...
 

Driftless

Donor
Part of my thought was the distributed calculation piece. Even without functional large scale mechanical computers, you would have huge volumes of data to process and analyze. In the begining, you probably need high levels of inter-country scientific and engineering co-operation to divvy up the tasks. A proto-internet without mechanical computers - those will come. Now, how do you share changing information at a useful pace? An accelerated development of the Telex?
 

Deleted member 97083

Is the goal having a moon landing in the 1930s or 1940s? That would be cool.
 
Computation-wise, the laws of celestial mechanics are fairly simple in the end; it should be possible to make mechanical analog computers (think slide rules*) to plot out the trajectories of objects, with the main limiting factor being the precision of the engineering rather than anything else. Such computers wouldn't be able to handle complex motion rising from three-body problems, but that still leaves the vast, vast majority of objects in the system.

You absolutely do not need any general-purpose computers or world-wide grid; individual observatories with very good clocks, proper mechanical computers and large staffs of human computers, as well as good telescopes and diligent astronomers (well, more like "sky-watchers", a sort of menial activity that can be farmed out to women or young people like a human computer). The trajectory of each object doesn't even require a lot of information to plot - just a few position/time measurements against a nonmoving reference (e.g. a set of distant stars).

Modern systems are built like they are because they can be, it's relatively inexpensive, and radar and amazing telescopes mean we're able to track objects that the 19th century would never have dreamed about - but a system to track all or almost all celestial objects visible with late 19th century technology shouldn't be too hard (though probably pretty expensive).

*Technically, orreries are precisely mechanical analog computers used to calculate the trajectories of celestial objects, but they are built to fixed parameters
 
Top