I had an image in my head of Germany and Austria-Hungary not being two nations, but one Giant European Empire. All of Germany and all of Austria-Hungary under one monarch. Going from Top to bottom of Europe. Truely being the Central Power in Europe.
How might such a thing take place? What impact would this giant empire have on the history of Europe and the world.
I could easily see something like this happen. Seen from before mid 18th century that was the most likely outcome and I guess it had some plausability until 1866.
Most PoDs would mean Prussia somhow being downgraded, as it first of all was Prussia's rise as Germany's moral leader from mid 18th century and culminating in 1871 that sent Austria back to a Balkan corner. And as important France need to be seen under a Habsburg thumb.
So, 1st option for a PoD:
Prussia gets thorughly thrashed in SYW and Austria has a sufficiently heroic role in this. France can, but will not necessarily win the final againts the winner of the German semi-final.
2nd option for a PoD:
Napoleon is defeated and captured in 1805 by the Austrians. Could be by General Mack having a better day, or because Archduke Charles is in command of this theatre. That will have the Prussians sitting on the fence look cowardish, and the French will for some time be pacified.
3rd option for a PoD:
Napoleon is defeated and captured in 1809 (Aspern-Essling or Wagram), have similar effects as the 1805 one, but as the HRE alreday is down the drain in this PoD, it will be more difficult.
4th option for a PoD:
Schwarzenberg's and Radetzky's original plan from October 1813 to put the main trust west of Leipzig to cut off Napoleon is not vetoed by the Zar, and Napoleon is decisively defeated and captured at Leipzig. The Austrians will come out of this as a clear "First among Germans", but the Prussians will not be as far behind as in the first thee options. A war over the German soul is likely later in 19th century.
5th option for a PoD:
Napoleon is defeated and captured at Hanau in late October 1813. Has similar effects as 4th option, but the Bavarians will demand a leading role and might challenge both Prussia and Austria (but not necessarily at the same time).
6th option for a PoD:
Austria is a clear winner of the war vs. France in 1859 and vs. Prussia in 1866. German nationalism is out of the bottle by this time and asks for a leading nation. Austria is the most likely contender, and if Prussia could subdue/convince the Catholic S.German states I guess Austria could also subdue/convince (to a degree) the Protestant N. Germans.
I doubt this Germanty will be anywhere as clearcut as the OTL however. The Habsburgs (in all options) will be very sceptical towards nationalism. That by nature was a threat vs. the nature of their Empire. But I don't see why a victorious HRE could transform into a more federalist unity. With a clear German majority in the Empire German nationalism by nature will have a role, like Romans vs. the others in the original Unholy Roman Empire. The biggest problem probably will be the Slavs and Hungarians feeling mobbed. But here the Habsburg tradition and role as a multicultural symbol probably can do wonders. In this ATL no shit needs to be taken from the Hungarians, and so the most serious barrier for giving the slavs recognition is removed.
Anyway I'm sure we could see a southern version of German nationalism. In early 19th century there apparantly was as strong German sentiments in southern Germany as in northern, and when breaking with the French in 1813 the Bavarians clearly had an ambition to take a leading role in Germany, at least S. Germany.
Regards
Steffen Redbeard