Denmark not neutral during WW1?

Valdemar II

Banned
I don't understand why its so impossible to imagine that Denmark could have allied themselfs with the UK and France?
Because we were tired of living on the thumb of the wienersnitzel eaters

So your POD is that the Danish government is replaced with imbeciles. The problem any Danish government is going to "pro"-German, hell even WWII our government has been that. Germany were our biggest trading partner, it had a much bigger army than us and Germany treatment of the Danish minority was for the times quite excellent (and a lot better than how the Poles and French was treated, because of the close relationship between Denmark and Germany). And if Denmark still have Schleswig-Holstein and we look awy from the butterflies, Denmark would be quite careful not giving Germany a causus belli to invade and take the German speaking areas. There's simply no rationel reason to invade Germany.

And it's Pølsetyskere.
 
Unlikely the reasons and technology to the fast occupation of Denmark in WWII doesn't exist yet.


Valdemar II,

My statement that Wilhelmine Germany would overrun Denmark in a day was hyperbole. Zealand however is not a fortress. It's nothing more than a starvation camp because there is no way to supply the army and population trapped there.

With Germany in possession of Jutland there is no way the Entente can sail convoys through the Skagerrak and Kattegat without hideous losses. Germany can station destroyers, submarines, and other light forces all along the peninsula along with placing minefields. A Grand Fleet attempting the clear those passages or shield convoys moving through the same will expose itself to the battles of attrition Germany naval officers hoped for.

Germany would be able to hold Zealand hostage in the hopes that it can lure the Grand Fleet into a defeat by detail. Germany would also be able to easily land on Zealand once the supply situation grows too bleak. In fact knowing that there is no real hope of Entente supplies, Zealand would be more likely to surrender after Germany's blockade is established. Let's say the autumn of 1915 once the Zealand harvest comes in and the Danish government does the math.

Denmark is too small and too exposed to do any real good to either side.

I strongly agree with your statement about the OP's POD being based in the Danish government being replaced by imbeciles.


Bill
 

Valdemar II

Banned
Kattegat is incredible lousy submarine territorium, so Germany couldn't starve Zealand out, beside it would quite easy for Danes to place defensive minefields which limited Germanys access to it. Denmark 1914 isn't Denmark 1940, and the necessary technlogy to overrun Zealand wouldn't be created before the 30ties*, while the High Fleet usefullness would be quite limited if the Danes got British support.

When all that is said, Zealand could feed itself.

*unless you had complete naval superiority, which Germany lacked.
 
So your POD is that the Danish government is replaced with imbeciles. The problem any Danish government is going to "pro"-German, hell even WWII our government has been that. Germany were our biggest trading partner, it had a much bigger army than us and Germany treatment of the Danish minority was for the times quite excellent (and a lot better than how the Poles and French was treated, because of the close relationship between Denmark and Germany).

Hrmm. HOw much rationing was there in OTL Denmark during the Great War? I'm trying to see a way for this to butterfly into full military occupation, but I can't imagine the Germans to be that stupid...
 

Valdemar II

Banned
Hrmm. HOw much rationing was there in OTL Denmark during the Great War? I'm trying to see a way for this to butterfly into full military occupation, but I can't imagine the Germans to be that stupid...

Some but not much, people had enough basic food in both war, through in WWII even that was rationed, while in WWI only foreign luxury items was rationed (or raplaced with faux products), like coffee, chocolate, rice and most spices. Danes really didn't starve in any of the wars.
 
Kattegat is incredible lousy submarine territorium...


Valdemar II,

Not just submarines and not just in the Kattegat either. The Royal Navy would be looking at destroyers, torpedo boats, etc., etc. etc. all based out of Jutland as they were near Zeebruge along with minefields extending further north along the Danish coast out into the North Sea.

... so Germany couldn't starve Zealand out, beside it would quite easy for Danes to place defensive minefields...

Defensive minefields which are in turn covered by German minefields. Danish mines keep the Germans away and German mines keep any help for the Danes away.

Denmark 1914 isn't Denmark 1940, and the necessary technlogy to overrun Zealand wouldn't be created before the 30ties*, while the High Fleet usefullness would be quite limited if the Danes got British support. *unless you had complete naval superiority, which Germany lacked.

Germany already has local naval superiority which the Royal Navy never seriously challenged. That superiority can shifted quite easily from Baltic to North Sea thanks to the Kiel Canal for use against Denmark and portions of it can now even be based in Denmark itself.

No one aside from Fisher or Churchill took the idea of naval expeditions, let alone convoys, into the Baltic seriously. Even sorties by submarines in the OTL didn't occur until 1917 and those will now be suicide with Germany controlling the Skagerrak and Kattegat.

Furthermore, the Royal Navy isn't going to come steaming to Denmark's aid in 1914 because that is precisely what the Germans would want it to do. The RN had shifted from a policy of close blockade to one of distant blockade nearly a decade before specifically to avoid the exact combat conditions running convoys to a besieged Zealand would entail.

When all that is said, Zealand could feed itself.

And the army evacuated there? And all the refugees too? Hoover was allowed to barely feed the Belgians because those rations couldn't go to the Belgian army. Germany won't allow food to reach Zealand as long as a Danish army is active on the island. Zealand will starve during the war because there will be many more people on Zealand during the war than there were before the war.

Also, aside from the food problem, how will Zealand be able to manufacture all the mines, munitions, ships, and other weapons these overly idealistic defensive plans require?

Zealand will be starved into surrender by late 1915, or perhaps as late as early 1916 if the Danish government is bloody minded enough.


Bill
 

Valdemar II

Banned
Denmark produced food to around 5 million people in 1914, Denmark had 2 million, Zealand is one of the most fertile areas in Denmark, and produced enough food to feed the entire population of Denmark, beside that Denmark can still import food through Sweden, which at the very least can import that through Norwegian harbours.

Germany can't close Kattegat down without declaring war on Norway.

The reason that convoys to the Baltic was impossible in OTL was that Denmark had mined Oeresund and Storebaelt to it and banned foreign naval access to Danish waters, so while a British convoy could get through, the protecting vessels couldn't.
 
Valdemar II,

Nice to see you've back off your "Royal Navy To The Rescue" claims. Let's refute your other idealistic ideas now...

Denmark produced food to around 5 million people in 1914...

And did so due to a reliance on imported nitrates. Even with the Haber-Bosch process, occupied lands, and foreign laborers Germany still couldn't manage pre-1914 agricultural yields. Zealand isn't going to be receiving shiploads of fossilized bird shit from Chile. Agricultural yields will drop and "free" Denmark will starve. In the OTL starvation happened to a much better positioned and technologically advanced Germany, a poorer, besieged, less advanced, and geographically constrained Denmark won't be able to do any better.

... beside that Denmark can still import food through Sweden...

Only if the Germans allow it. There's strategic purchasing for one thing, Germany can simply buy up Sweden's ag surpluses. There's economic pressure for another. Finally Germany can lay mines or operate light craft

... which at the very least can import that through Norwegian harbours. Germany can't close Kattegat down without declaring war on Norway.

They can do the next best thing and that will be enough. Norwegian freighters creeping through Norwegian and Swedish waters will still need to enter Danish waters to deliver food and goods to Denmark. When they do, they're fair targets for Germany under the same blockade rules Britain is enforcing in the North Sea.

The reason that convoys to the Baltic was impossible in OTL...

Sorry, but no.

Convoys to the Baltic weren't impossible in the OTL, the RN and USN routinely covered Scandinavian convoys with portions of the Grand Fleet. What was impossible in the OTL were convoys to Russia because those convoys had to pass German occupied lands in a narrow sea.

The Germans occupying Jutland aren't going to let convoys headed for a besieged Zealand pass unmolested anymore than they let convoys heading for Russia pass unmolested in the OTL. And the Grand Fleet isn't going to be able to force convoys through the Skageratt and Kattegat any more than they were able in the OTL.

I know you've most likely got some emotional attachment to the idea of a rump Denmark becoming another "Brave Little Belgium", but the geography is stacked too greatly against that occurring. We need to be realistic here. Zealand is going to starve and be forced to surrender just as with Serbia.

By the way, care to explain how a besieged Zealand is going to produce all the munitions, mines, ships, and other materials your defense scheme will require? I noticed you forgot to answer that one last time I asked it.


Bill
 
Here is how I look at it.

The british destruction of danish Navy and economy of 1800 must not happen.
Secondly we need a weak Germany. Maybe no Bismarck?
Maybe Denmark could mirror Belgium in economical development in 1800s? Making huge somes of money from her colonies in Africa and the Caribian?
 
Here is how I look at it.

The british destruction of danish Navy and economy of 1800 must not happen.
Secondly we need a weak Germany. Maybe no Bismarck?
Maybe Denmark could mirror Belgium in economical development in 1800s? Making huge somes of money from her colonies in Africa and the Caribian?

1) But the butterflies!

2) You'd want an expert, but I don't think the Congo was such a huge cash-cow.
 
Look at the the royal palace in Brussels. Its as big a the palace in London. I am sure the money for Royal Palace in Brussels didn't come from collecting Taxes in Belgium.

You don't have figures, I don't have figures, but I do remember reading the King Leopold was forever battling to keep his colonial schemes a float financially.
 
You don't have figures, I don't have figures, but I do remember reading the King Leopold was forever battling to keep his colonial schemes a float financially.

Still being a Dane I would loved being able "change history for better" as they said in Quantum Leap series, and thusly make danish history turn out for the better in the late 19th and early 20th Century!
 

Redbeard

Banned
can't stop commenting on some of this:

Zealand starving
Zealand has allways been very fertile, also long before fertilisers, and has allways been able to feed many more than its own inhabitors. If all of Zealand is controlled I don't see why anybody should starve - fertilisers or not. Next this is not the Midwest or Ukraine with huge wheatfields much dependent on fertiliser, but rather dairy and intensive gardening agriculture. Quite elaborate methods had been developed to change crops and use natural fertilisers.

I'm sure the production level would decrease as grain fodder rise in price, but it will take years, and hardly to anywhere near starvation level.

There actually was a production of ammo and light arms on Zealand.

Jutland blocking access to Zealand/the Baltic
Posessing Jutland will not do much in blocking Zealand or the Baltic. Skagerak and Kattegat are simply too wide to be blocked from Jutland with WWI technology.

Skagerak is too deep to be practical to mine and no gun can reach all the way to Norway. The German navy can of course try to meet the RN in open water in the Skagerak, but hardly recommendable.

In the Kattegat the main issue will be the minefields and hit and run tactics from light forces, but I can't see how the Germans or anyone else can keep away a determined RN. The British simply have too many destroyers and light cruisers, but of course are likely to take heavy losses.

Copenhagen or not - that is the question
The real issue will be who controlls the Fortification of Copenhagen, as the Oeresund is controlled from here, and Oeresund then the only practical access to and from the Baltic.

The Fortification of Copenhagen included heavy artillery (up to 14") guarding the Oeresund and was built from late 19th century and into WWI. It had quite modern equipment and was manned by some 40.000 men from 1914 which could be reinforced in case of war.

In general I think you can say that if Copenhagen is controlled by the British (through a friendly Danish Government) nothing really would be able to stop them from reinforcing and supplying Copenhagen down the Kattegat, but it will be quite another job to stop the Germans from crossing to South or West Zealand and from here lay siege to Copenhagen, and eventually take it. Seen from a Danish point of view you would have to ask: what's in it for us? Apart from providing for yet another bloody battlefield not deciding the war?

The most likely option for Danish participation in WWI would have been on German side - if the British had decided to violate Danish neutrality. Here the Copenhagen Fortification really would show its worth. The British probably can't be stopped from forcing their way through Skagerak and Kattegat, but to get any further they need to take Copenhagen. But from behind the minefields in Oeresund, guarded from Copenhagen, the Germans unhindered can reinforce and supply Copenhagen. It's like giving the Dardanelles more modern equipment and moving it all inside range of heavy German reinforcement.

When originally planned in late 19th century it is likely that the Copenhagen Fortifications were built against possible German aggression, and hoping for a British alliance. In an 1880 world Copenhagen would have remained safe behind it fortress ring and would have been comfortably supplied down the Kattegat or across the Oeresund. The plans didn't count on Jutland or all Zealand necessarily remaining in Danish control.

By 1914 however the range of artillery had increased enough for a besieger outside the fortification ring to hit Copenhagen city. An auxilliary plan was made for a field fortification at Tune (from Roskilde to Bay of Koege) but the comfortable safety of the expensive fortification was gone. Next the German navy had grown so much, that it would be unlikely for Denmark alone to keep the communications open to Copenhagen, and there were no indications of Britain willing to enter a risky "Save Denmark" operation.

So the only option left was playing along as a German vassal and hope for the best.

Regards

Steffen Redbeard
 
Still being a Dane I would loved being able "change history for better" as they said in Quantum Leap series, and thusly make danish history turn out for the better in the late 19th and early 20th Century!

Yeah, better unless you happen to be a German of Flensburg... I'm a patriot myself, and I have nothing against people exploring how their history could have turned out for the better (if you're Chinese, say, Russian or indeed German its hard to do much else), but this is just silly. Trampling on butterflies and drastically meddling.
 
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