Denmark and Germany: 1864

Yeah, but by this point it's 2nd rate. Not really a threat to Britain. This Germany is still primarily a land power with both France and Italian holding irredentist claims and Russia looming large to the East.
Denmark joining more than a custom union is a big red flag to Britain not because of what navy it has but the naval threat it creates. Jutland seals off the Baltic, the North Atlantic Islands (Faroes,Iceland and Greenland ) are potential bases for a blockade of Britain, the other colonies again can be seen as a basing threat. RN does not often drink lead paint, it can read the map, look a few moves ahead and point out the encirclement threat.
Prussia leading a Germany that is a Europe based land power Britain can live with , its colonies can be isolated and taken. Same Germany with control of the Baltic and potentially a string of bases able to dominate the North Atlantic trade routes along with gaining a naval tradition is a completely different fish. At the very least those North Atlantic Islands are getting sold/annexed/British protectorate status as a quid pro quo.
 
Denmark joining more than a custom union is a big red flag to Britain not because of what navy it has but the naval threat it creates. Jutland seals off the Baltic, the North Atlantic Islands (Faroes,Iceland and Greenland ) are potential bases for a blockade of Britain, the other colonies again can be seen as a basing threat. RN does not often drink lead paint, it can read the map, look a few moves ahead and point out the encirclement threat.
Prussia leading a Germany that is a Europe based land power Britain can live with , its colonies can be isolated and taken. Same Germany with control of the Baltic and potentially a string of bases able to dominate the North Atlantic trade routes along with gaining a naval tradition is a completely different fish. At the very least those North Atlantic Islands are getting sold/annexed/British protectorate status as a quid pro quo.

Though Denmark joining the GC would not in itself give Prussia control of it - one reason no doubt why Bismarck wasn't interested. Indeed Christian IX already belonged to it under his "Duke of Holstein" hat.
 
Though Denmark joining the GC would not in itself give Prussia control of it - one reason no doubt why Bismarck wasn't interested. Indeed Christian IX already belonged to it under his "Duke of Holstein" hat.
Agreed but Britain will assume bad things due to its general paranoia on all things naval. As long as the GC does not include anyone that can interdict the sea lanes ( Austria was seen as limited to the Adriatic, Denmark blocks the Baltic and threatens the Atlantic ), its a counterbalance to France/Russia but once it does, its a deadly threat to be resisted/stopped.
 
Jutland seals off the Baltic, the North Atlantic Islands (Faroes,Iceland and Greenland ) are potential bases for a blockade of Britain, the other colonies again can be seen as a basing threat.

Why do they care? That screws over the Russians, one of their prime geopolitical rivals. By that logic the British should be upset that the Ottomans can bottle up the Black Sea.
 
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Why do they care? That screws over the Russians, one of their prime geopolitical rivals. By that logic the British should be upset that the Ottomans can bottle up the Black Sea.
Trade and the control it gives over both Finland and Sweden. The comparison with the Ottomans is not at all valid, Britain knew it could pressure the Ottomans, they were on a downward spiral , Germany is rising. Given the amount of British policy to stop Russia getting control of access to the Black Sea, its not even arguable that it was seen as a big thing. Britain just saw the Ottomans as the safest option and a block on Russia.
 
Trade and the control it gives over both Finland and Sweden. The comparison with the Ottomans is not at all valid, Britain knew it could pressure the Ottomans, they were on a downward spiral , Germany is rising. Given the amount of British policy to stop Russia getting control of access to the Black Sea, its not even arguable that it was seen as a big thing. Britain just saw the Ottomans as the safest option and a block on Russia.
They had control over Baltic trade even without Denmark in OTL.
 
They had control over Baltic trade even without Denmark in OTL.
Not in 1864 they didn't, no real navy and no blocking position on Swedish/Finnish ships using the Sound. Britian's worries would be on what they could do. The growth of the HSF is the main reason Britain started getting friendly with France ( without the HSF it would have been neutral ).
 
Not in 1864 they didn't, no real navy and no blocking position on Swedish/Finnish ships using the Sound. Britian's worries would be on what they could do. The growth of the HSF is the main reason Britain started getting friendly with France ( without the HSF it would have been neutral ).

This seems like a point that agrees with me?

The HSF doesn't exist at this point, so the British will not be hostile now. And in the future it will decide whether to treat Germany in a hostile fashion depending on how it behaves then. It's not inevitable that Germany will build an enormous navy in an attempt to challenge Britain.

Germany's options are rather constrained.

France is a blood enemy for life.

Italy, well, assuming they were on the side of Germany and Russia in this alt 1870 war just annexed Venitia and the Papal States. However it seems inevitable they'll eventually side with France because they bulk of their irredentist claims are in Germany and Croatia.

With this hostile block to the west the Germans have three choices.

Stick with the Russians come what may.
Dump the Russians and get the British on their side.
The Kaiser pisses everyone off and Germany ends up going down swinging like Napoleonic France.

Number one will be hard, because as the Ottomans weaken Russian influence in the Balkans will grow and grow. Even if the Germans are not that concerned with the Balkans, eventually in tandem with Russia's rapid industrialization, it will grow to such an extent that they will become alarmed.

So, the Germans will either have to turn to Britain or go it alone.
 
According to Michael Embree [1] the naval forces were

Denmark

One turreted ironclad

Two armoured schooners

One screw ship of the line

Four screw frigates

Three screw corvettes

Ten screw schooners

Seven screw gunboats

Eight paddle-wheelers and “numerous” inshore vessels.

A further converted ironclad was nearing completion; one more was under construction and another was in process of being purchased. In the second line was a considerable, if out of date, sailing squadron.



Prussia

Four screw corvettes

The Royal Yacht

Two paddle steamers

Six “first class” steam gunboats and fourteen “second class” as well as inshore and harbour defence craft, and a squadron of sailing vessels. Of these, one paddle steamer and two “first class” gunboats were in the Eastern Mediterranean, and one of the screw-corvettes on her way to the Far East. Another screw-corvette was fitting out in Danzig, and two more plus two First Class gunboats, were under construction. During the war Prussia would also purchase two ironclads and two screw-corvettes, which would not be delivered until after the end of hostilities.

Any thoughts on whether the two together would be considered a serious threat to the RN?


[1] Bismarck’s First War , Ch 2
 
From 1860-64 Britain built 19 ironclads and had many steam ships from the 1847-61 period still in service

  • Warrior class broadside ironclads
    • Warrior (1860) - Preserved Portsmouth
    • Black Prince (1861) - Renamed Emerald 1903, renamed Impregnable III 1910, sold for BU 1923
  • Defence class broadside ironclads
    • Defence (1861) - Renamed Indus 1898; hulked 1922; sold for BU 1935
    • Resistance (1861) - Sold 1898; foundered 1899; raised and BU
  • Hector class broadside ironclads
    • Hector (1862) - Sold for BU 1905
    • Valiant (1863) - Renamed Indus 1898, Valiant (Old) 1916, and Valiant III 1919; became floating oil tank 1924; BU 1957
  • Achilles (1863) broadside ironclad — Renamed Hibernia 1902, Egmont 1904, Egremont 1918, and Pembroke 1919; sold for BU 1925
  • Minotaur class broadside ironclads
    • Minotaur (1863) - Renamed Boscawen 1904, Ganges 1906, and Ganges II 1908; sold for BU 1922
    • Agincourt (1865) - Renamed Boscawen III 1904 and Ganges II 1906; became coal hulk C109 1908; sold for BU 1960
    • Northumberland (1866) - Renamed Acheron 1904; became coal hulk C 1909, renamed C68 1926; sold 1927; became hulk Stedmound, BU 1935
  • Prince Consort-class broadside ironclads (converted from Bulwark class 2-deckers)
  • Royal Oak (1862) broadside ironclad (converted from Bulwark class 2-decker) - Laid up 1871; sold for BU 1885
  • Royal Alfred (1864) central-battery ironclad (converted from Bulwark class 2-decker)- Sold for BU 1885
  • Research (1863) central-battery ironclad — Sold for BU 1884
  • Enterprise (1864) central-battery ironclad — Sold for BU 1886
  • Favorite (1864) central-battery ironclad — Sold for BU 1886
  • Zealous (1864) central-battery ironclad (converted from Bulwark class 2-decker) - Laid up 1875; sold for BU 1886
 
Sounds like even a Danish-Prussian union (supposing this to be possible) would cause Brits little loss of sleep. Rather what I thought.
 
Gross-Deutschland Denmark Timeline Continues...

France gets embarrassed in several Fashoda like instances in the 1890s, engendering great resentment against Great Britain for frustrating her colonial designs. Designs that are far more important to her in this timeline given how much farther Alsace seems out of her grasp here.

So when the Germans came with a proposal to divide the low countries in 1901, France doesn't say no. The Netherlands had already fallen deeply under Germany's economic and political influence, and the crown prince was known to be romancing the Queen. Better for France to seize the opportunity before her.

Britain of course threatened war. Her fleet could sweep the French and Germans from the seas, but they could do nothing about the situation on the continent. Worse it quickly became known that if war broke out between the western European powers, Russia would enter the war by striking hard at the Ottomans and the Italians would join them. Britain could hardly wage war against the entire continent of Europe.

Humilated and under threat, the British spent the next decade in council with it's dominions, forming the British Imperial Federation with Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Ireland. It managed to come out of the diplomatic cold when Portuguese defaulted on their debt, allowed her to team up with Germany in partitioning her colonies.

The world 1914
 
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