Demography and minorities in Europe without the Third Reich.

Valdemar II

Banned
Switzerland has a few advantages, like a long history of stable government and lax banking laws.

Austria was dirt poor in a situation where it had no way to easily build up capital.

Switzerland was not as stable in the past as people believes, and a lot poorer at that time, and let's not forget a lot of Switzergermans supported unification with Germany before the war*. Likely Austria will adopt the Swiss idea of coalition governments**

*And that German made up over 70% of Switzerlands population at that time.

**If they don't go Fascist.
 

Susano

Banned
Likely something like this (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peel_Commission) will happen. I think some kind of Jewish land is unavoidable.
:D :D :D
A commission over the Jewish Question named Peel Commission? That fits hilariosuly well with AH.com Memes :D

France will keep the entire Algeria, but will likely let the rest of the Empire "go" (in reality made into some kind of Neocolonial trading and military relationship).

Libya will likely have Italian majority.[/quote}
Why the hell do all No WW2 timelines have no decolonisation, or at least something like that? Okay, without WW2 France wont be weakened, but the fundamental problems in Algeria will remain the same. Short of Stalinesque population resettlements (and not only of Arabs, also of French) Algeria will revolt, and France cant win that war permanently.
Same fo rLibya, but of course, if fascism arises such population resettlements are at elst a tad more likely than with France and Algeria...

Switzerland was not as stable in the past as people believes, and a lot poorer at that time, and let's not forget a lot of Switzergermans supported unification with Germany before the war*. Likely Austria will adopt the Swiss idea of coalition governments.
Switzerland was pisspoor in the early 19th century, yes, but in the Interwar period, and also in the Belle Epoque it already did very well. And lets not cofnuse German ethnicity and German nationality - the Swiss Germans spoke "German" (well, even thats debattable :D ), but they didnt feel at all as Germans. Thats not true for Austrians, who DID feel as Austrians. Anschluss is inevitable - Hitlers diplomatic successes after all also rested on a guilt complex on part of the Allies that wont just go away with another German President.

And Inertia? Thats a very poor reasoning anyways. By that reasoning it shouldnt have come to German reunification in 1871, because after all, at that point the Germans had waited for it for 65 years, so inertia shouldve shown, yes? Or German reunification in 1990, of course, after 45 years. Thats just silly...
 
Why the hell do all No WW2 timelines have no decolonisation, or at least something like that? Okay, without WW2 France wont be weakened, but the fundamental problems in Algeria will remain the same. Short of Stalinesque population resettlements (and not only of Arabs, also of French) Algeria will revolt, and France cant win that war permanently.

Hrm. It can't win permanently, but without the back-breaking of WW2 I think they might be a bit more assertive and stay the court. What's stopping them?

Same fo rLibya, but of course, if fascism arises such population resettlements are at elst a tad more likely than with France and Algeria...

Since this is what Italy was doing....
 

Susano

Banned
Hrm. It can't win permanently, but without the back-breaking of WW2 I think they might be a bit more assertive and stay the court. What's stopping them?
Popular opinion? Of course France can use excessive force to stay in Algeria, but this will mean a truely endless colonial war,m that over time will lose all support. Portugal tried it, and look where this ended!
 
Popular opinion? Of course France can use excessive force to stay in Algeria, but this will mean a truely endless colonial war,m that over time will lose all support. Portugal tried it, and look where this ended!

Portugal didn't have hundreds of thousands of French citizens there. This is why I think an Israel/Palestine outcome is fairly likely.

Mind, I also think that this Europe might be a bit poorer.
 
The French, I imagine, probably keep a piece of Algeria; the Italians keep Libya, which probably has a majority Italian population by this point.

Hrm.... What exactly were the Italians up to? I know there was some rather bald-faced ethnic cleansing and an attempt at a settlement program, but I'd no idea it was of a scale where that could happen.
 
Popular opinion? Of course France can use excessive force to stay in Algeria, but this will mean a truely endless colonial war,m that over time will lose all support. Portugal tried it, and look where this ended!

Portugal's colonial wars were fairly successful, compared to the Algerian debacle, in that except for Guinea-Bissau, the Portuguese managed to exert a good deal of control over Angola and Mozambique, not to mention how South Africa helped the Portuguese colonies out of self-interest as well. There's the small chance the wars for Angola and Mozambique could be won (ahem, delayed for a longer period) if the Portuguese military still finds it feasible to continue its war. The Portuguese were hardly drawn into a "truly endless" war, though it may have seemed as such.

I think that France could keep the coastal areas of Algeria if it played its hand well, and several butterflies worked in its favor. If I remember correctly, the French reacted brutally in the initial attacks on All Saints Day by the FLN, and continued with those reprisals for the rest of the war. And a question: didn't by around 1957-1958, the French armed forces had largely begun to successfully control the territory? I thought it was political uprest in the mainland that was more damaging than the FLN leadership by that time.
 
Portugal didn't have hundreds of thousands of French citizens there. This is why I think an Israel/Palestine outcome is fairly likely.

Mind, I also think that this Europe might be a bit poorer.
There were quite a few Portuguese in Portuguese Africa, weren't there?

Of course, France has a lot more resources than Portugal, and what really threw Portugal off more than anything else was the Cold War- both the USA and USSR funded resistance movements, and even then Portugal was winning (well, holding the major towns and the coasts) and had some popular support outside of Guinea-Bissau when the Estado Novo government was overthrown at home.
 
There were quite a few Portuguese in Portuguese Africa, weren't there?

Of course, France has a lot more resources than Portugal, and what really threw Portugal off more than anything else was the Cold War- both the USA and USSR funded resistance movements, and even then Portugal was winning (well, holding the major towns and the coasts) and had some popular support outside of Guinea-Bissau when the Estado Novo government was overthrown at home.

Yeah, Angola was one particularly ironic part of the Cold War, where Cuban forces fought American-backed rebels (no surprise) to defend American-owned oil installations (WTF?:eek:).
 
Apart from the fact that this has nothing at all to do with demography - no. Just no.

Achieving an Italian majority in Libya was a goal and would have been quite simple really. In 1939 there were 889,000 inhabitants in Libya, of these 108,000 were Italian. In addition there was a Jewish community of roughly 22,000. Arabs were less than 86% of the population. Approximately 38,000 of the Italians were settlers that arrived in 1938 and 1939 as government sponsored immigrants. This means that the Italian population was growing at a much faster rate than any other ethnic group. The Italian government's estimate was a population of 500,000 Italians by 1960. Assuming a total population of 1,700,000, Italians would compose 29% of the population.

With a rate of natural increase similar to Italy's between 1960-1975 and a conservative estimate of an additional 25-35,000 immigrants per year, the Italian population would be 1.2 million by 1975. That puts them at 44% of the total population. In OTL Libya had a very pro-natalist policy and imported hundreds of thousands of immigrants from other Arab countries, namely Egypt. So my projections are based on a rate of natural increase similar to neighbouring countries during the same period.

Even with a slightly lower rate of natural increase, assuming that a net of at least 25-35,000 Italians can be lured to Libya every year until 2008, we would have 3,050,000 Italians there today. The Arab population would be around 2,900,000. So Italians would be the majority. A less conservative estimate based on an oil boom could push the overall European population to 3.5 million and possibly even 4 million.

With Libya's oil wealth, I can see the colony developing a highly industrialised economy based on petrochemicals. It may be able to lure Italians from Sicily and Southern Italy the way the North did during the post-war period. In the 1950s and 1960s there were years that the north lured over 100,000 Southern Italians. In addition there was a sizable Maltese community in Libya, I can see more Maltese settling there. Finally, if Tunisia becomes independent around 2/3 of their European population was Italian, so the Italian government may be able to get some refugees from there.

The point I'm trying to make is that a Libya under Italian rule could have easily had an Italian majority and I'm not even taking into account the possibility of Italian reprisals against the Arab population killing large parts of the population and driving refugees into Egypt should a rebellion occur.
 
There were quite a few Portuguese in Portuguese Africa, weren't there?

Of course, France has a lot more resources than Portugal, and what really threw Portugal off more than anything else was the Cold War- both the USA and USSR funded resistance movements, and even then Portugal was winning (well, holding the major towns and the coasts) and had some popular support outside of Guinea-Bissau when the Estado Novo government was overthrown at home.

Angola and Mozambique had substantial European populations. Angola's European population was around 500,000 in 1974 up from just under 173,000 in 1960. Mozambique's numbered about 250,000, up from 97,000 in 1960. The independence movements were large enough to be a nuisance to Portuguese troops on the borders with hostile states, but not a enough of a threat to keep Portuguese immigrants away. Throughout the 1960s Portuguese immigration the two colonies grew. After 1969 in particular, the number of immigrants to both colonies seemed to grow dramatically. Unlike in Algeria, there was no urban warfare or terrorism.

Most settlers in Angola lived in the western half of the country especially along the coasts and in the fertile plateaus faraway from the war that from 1961-1966 was along the border with the Congo and from 1966-1972 along the border with Zambia. In Mozambique too, most settlers lived south of the Zambezi river in urban areas, thousands of miles from the war zone.

The military situation especially after 1972 in Angola was very positive for the Portuguese. The MPLA was divided in two factions and had lost Soviet support by 1974. They had been driven from Eastern Angola and were badly divided. The FNLA was weakened and UNITA had an agreement with the Portuguese government to only attack the MPLA and FNLA. The guerilla movements were in disarray by 1974 and were little threat to Portugal. So much so that 10,000 troops and aircraft were being transferred to Mozambique in 1974.

In Mozambique there was a single guerilla movement, FRELIMO. It operated in the nothern part of Mozambique along the border with Tanzania where it had bases. After 1969 the guerillas moved into bases in Zambia and began trying to attack the Cabora Bassa dam. Despite this, the dam was completed on schedule in 1974.

According to the Portuguese government, there were approximately 800,000 settlers in Portuguese Africa in 1974. France had a population of approximately 47 million in 1962, and there were 1,050,000 Europeans in Algeria and an additional 200,000 Jews with French citizenship. These refugees increased France's population by 2.5%. In contrast, Portugal's population was just under 9 million. The refugees represented a 9% increase in the population. I would say that Portugal's decolonisation definately had a much larger effect on Portugal. This impact was especially profound in the northern regions of the country where the population increase was much larger (since most settlers came from there).
 
Regarding jews in Europe:

(as of 1930)
Main source: "Cultural Atlas of the jewish world" Oxford

Poland 3.000 K
Ukranie 1.500 K
Romania 900 K
Germany+Austria 825 K
Russia 600 K
Hungary 450 K
Belarus 400 K
Czecoslovaquia 360 K
United Kingdom 300 K
France 230 K
The Netherlands 160 K
Lithuania 150 K
Latvia 100 K
Greece 75 K
Yugoslavia 70 K
Italy 50 K
Bulgaria 50 K
Belgique 45 K
Uzbekhistan 40 K
Azerbaikhan 30 K
Georgia 30 K
Switzerland 20 K

Demographic Growth Hypotesis
- No Holocaust.
- 1,5% annual for East rural jews
- 1,0% annual for East urban jews & west rural jews
- 0,5% annual for west urban jews

As of 2005 (natural growth)

Poland 3.000 K (1,25% anual) 7.600 K
Ukranie 1.500 K (1,38% anual) 4.175 K
Romania 900 K (1,25% anual) 2.285 K
Germany+Austria 825 K (0,50% anual) 1.200 K
Russia 600 K (1,38% anual) 1.675 K
Hungary 450 K (1,13% anual) 1.050 K
Belarus 400 K (1,38% anual) 1.125 K
Czecoslovaquia 360 K (1,13% anual) 825 K
United Kingdom 300 K (0,50% anual) 435 K
France 230 K (0,50% anual) 335 K
The Netherlands 160 K (0,50% anual) 230 K
Lithuania 150 K (0,75% anual) 260 K
Latvia 100 K (0,63% anual) 160 K
Greece 75 K (0,63% anual) 120 K
Yugoslavia 70 K (0,63% anual) 110 K
Italy 50 K (0,50% anual) 75 K
Bulgaria 50 K (1,25% anual) 125 K
Belgique 45 K (0,50% anual) 65 K
Uzbekhistan 40 K (1,38% anual) 115 K
Azerbaikhan 30 K (1,38% anual) 85 K
Georgia 30 K (1,38% anual) 85 K
Switzerland 20 K (0,50% anual) 30 K
Total 13.840 K ----> 22.165 K

French Northern Africa 320 K (2,00% anual) 1.420 K
Egypt & Libya 90 K (2,00% anual) 400 K
Ethiopia 50 K (2,50% anual) 320 K
Asian arab countries 180 K (2,00% anual) 800 K
Iran 90 K (2,00% anual) 400 K
Turkey 80 K (1,50% anual) 240 K

Economic growth hypotesis

1. Highly developed countries (Germany, Austria, United Kingdom, France, The Netherlands, Belgique, Czecoslovaquia, Italy, Lithuania, Latvia & Switzerland)
2. Medium developed countries, 25% migration rate for period 1930 to 2005 (Poland, Romania, Hungary, Greece, Yugoslavia, and Bulgaria). 75% migration to an european highly developed country, 25% new world migration.
3. Poor countries, 50% migration rate for period 1930 to 2005 50% migration to an european highly developed country, 25% medium developed countries (bridge to better oportunities) and 25% new world migration. USSR's countries rathio due to political restrictions only 15%.
4. Third world countries 75% migration rate for period 1930 to 2005


Migration Hypotesis
- No ww2 effects on european economies & demographics.
- No special effect of antisemitism in western Europe.
- No yugoslavian war (in 90's)
- Comunist block migration restrictions only afecting ex-USSR (till 90's), Baltic countries not in USSR.
- No Israel Estate exists. Palestinian authorities (both british & arab) not promoting jew migration to Palestina. No special measures in islamic countries for expelling jew poblations (Iran adjusted jew migration ratio adjusted to 95% due to Khomeini goverment)
- No significant jew migration from Latin America.

Poland 7.600 K (Out => 1.900, In => 125 from Ukranie, 50 from Russia, 70 from Belarus, 5 from Uzbekhistan, 5 from Azerbaikhan, 5 from Georgia) = 5.960 K
Ukranie 4.175 K (Out => 625) = 3.550 K
Romania 2.285 K (Out => 570; In => 20 from Ukranie, 10 from Russia) = 1.745 K
Germany+Austria 1.200 K (In => 1.000 from Poland, 230 from Romania, 200 from Ukranie, 50 from Russia, 100 from Hungary, 70 from Belarus, 5 from Greece, 10 from Yugoslavia, 10 from Bulgaria, 10 from Uzbekhistan, 10 from Azerbaikhan, 10 from Georgia, 30 from Egypt & Lybia, 100 from Ehiopia, 100 from asian arab countries, 180 from Iran, 45 from Turkey) = 3.570 K
Russia 1.675 K (Out => 250) = 1.425 K
Hungary 1.050 K (Out => 260 ; In => 20 from Ukranie) = 810 K
Belarus 1.125 K (Out => 280) = 845 K
Czecoslovaquia 825 K (In => 75 from Poland, 25 from Romania, 10 from Russia) = 935 K
United Kingdom 435 K (In => 150 from Poland, 50 from Ukranie, 15 from Russia, 20 from Hungary, 20 from Belarus, 5 from Greece, 5 from Yugoslavia, 10 from Bulgaria, 150 from Egypt & Lybia, 20 from Ethiopia, 150 from asian arab countries, 100 from Iran) = 1.130 K
France 335 K (In => 50 from Poland, 100 from Romania, 50 from Ukranie, 15 from Russia, 20 from Hungary, 20 from Belarus, 10 from Bulgaria, 800 from french northern africa, 100 from asian arab countries, 50 from Iran) = 1.550 K
The Netherlands 230 K (In => 50 from Poland, 10 from Russia, 20 from Hungary, 10 from Belarus, 10 from Ethiopia, 20 from asian arab countries, 20 from Iran, 10 from Turkey) = 380 K
Lithuania 260 K (In => 75 from Poland, 30 from Ukranie, 15 from Russia, 20 from Belarus) = 400 K
Latvia 160 K (In => 10 from Russia) = 170 K
Greece 120 K (Out => 30, In 10 from Turkey) = 100 K
Yugoslavia 110 K (Out => 30, In 10 from Turkey) = 90 K
Italy 75 K (In => 25 from Poland, 25 from Romania, 10 from Hungary, 15 from Greece, 10 from Yugoslavia, 20 from Egypt & Lybia, 20 from Ethiopia, 10 from asian arab countries, 10 from Iran) = 220 K
Bulgaria 125 K (Out => 30 In => 10 from Turkey) = 105 K
Belgique 65 K (In => 25 from Romania, 10 from Hungary, 5 from Ethiopia, 10 from asian arab countries, 10 from Iran) = 125 K
Uzbekhistan 115 K (Out => 20) = 95 K
Azerbaikhan 85 K (Out => 20) = 65 K
Georgia 85 K (Out => 20) = 65 K
Switzerland 30 K (In => 25 from Romania, 15 from Hungary, 5 from Ethiopia, 10 from asian arab countries, 10 from Iran, 5 from Turkey) = 90 K

French Northern Africa 1.400 K (Out => 1.050) = 350 K
Egypt & Libya 400 K (Out => 300) = 100 K
Ethiopia 320 K (Out => 240) = 80 K
Asian arab countries 800 K (Out => 600) = 200 K
Iran 400 K (Out => 380) = 20 K
Turkey 240 K (Out => 120) = 120 K
 
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