Demographics of the United Baltic Duchy in a CP WWI victory TL

The Avenger

Banned
What would the demographics of the United Baltic Duchy (now Latvia and Estonia in our TL) in a TL where the Central Powers won World War I look like?

Would a lot of Germans (not necessarily from Germany--Austria-Hungary and Russia also had a lot of Germans), Jews, Poles, Ukrainians, Belarusians, and members of other Mitteleuropean ethnic groups have moved to the United Baltic Duchy in the 20th and 21st centuries in this TL?
 
What would the demographics of the United Baltic Duchy (now Latvia and Estonia in our TL) in a TL where the Central Powers won World War I look like?

Would a lot of Germans (not necessarily from Germany--Austria-Hungary and Russia also had a lot of Germans), Jews, Poles, Ukrainians, Belarusians, and members of other Mitteleuropean ethnic groups have moved to the United Baltic Duchy in the 20th and 21st centuries in this TL?

To be honest, I fail to see why the region would be particularly attractive to immigrants; your most likely source of Germans would probably come from the Volga if post-war Russian experiances a wave of Germanophobia. Germany and AH both have better economic growth prospects and preexisting standard of living, as well as the pre-existing cultural preferance for their native sons, so what would be the "pull" factor?

I think you're more likely to see the development of agriculture in the region, which would draw in Belarusians/Ruthenians from immediately to the east, and probably Poles displaced from any settlement strip annexed from Poland proper by Germany.
 

The Avenger

Banned
To be honest, I fail to see why the region would be particularly attractive to immigrants;

There's a lot of available land there and the quality of life there could possibly be higher than in, say, Poland, Ukraine, or Belarus.

Weren't Latvia and Estonia extremely developed by Russian Empire standards?

your most likely source of Germans would probably come from the Volga if post-war Russian experiances a wave of Germanophobia.

Agreed. However, how many of them would settle in the UBD?

Germany and AH both have better economic growth prospects and preexisting standard of living, as well as the pre-existing cultural preferance for their native sons, so what would be the "pull" factor?

Were all parts of Germany and A-H more developed than the UBD, though? After all, what about Transylvania and the Balkans?

I think you're more likely to see the development of agriculture in the region, which would draw in Belarusians/Ruthenians from immediately to the east, and probably Poles displaced from any settlement strip annexed from Poland proper by Germany.

By Ruthenians, you mean Ukrainians, correct?

Also, in terms of total numbers, how many Belarusians, Ukrainians, and Poles do you think will settle in the UBD? Also, what about Russian Germans and Jews?
 
There's a lot of available land there and the quality of life there could possibly be higher than in, say, Poland, Ukraine, or Belarus.

Weren't Latvia and Estonia extremely developed by Russian Empire standards?



Agreed. However, how many of them would settle in the UBD?



Were all parts of Germany and A-H more developed than the UBD, though? After all, what about Transylvania and the Balkans?



By Ruthenians, you mean Ukrainians, correct?

Also, in terms of total numbers, how many Belarusians, Ukrainians, and Poles do you think will settle in the UBD? Also, what about Russian Germans and Jews?

  • That is correct, but not nessicerily in ways/at levels important and accessible to your average uneducated dirt farmer. In terms of land availability it's hardly as though there's a lack of it in Eastern Europe (Indeed; with the fleeing/dispossession of Russian landlords there's actually an opportunity for the peasents to grab some... far less likely in the UBD where the Germanic nobility has a claim to it). It certainly would make the territories more attractive to semi-skilled labor and as a target for German investment capital, but for those factors they're competing with AH and Germany proper.
  • If you want exact numbers, I'd need far more details than just "Cp victory". How long was the war? What was the result of the RCW and how were the CP involved? What is the economic possession/health of Germany? These factors would have a huge impact, so I could only give general trends.
  • As in point 1, yes: but then you have to ask why they don't just migrate to richer areas within AH or Germany (Like Bohemia or Silesia)
 
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