Let’s say Mexico does much better because the US does much worse.
The US fails to resolve North West borders with Britain resulting in a war nobody really wants, which ends in a five year defeat for the US from 1845-1850. This costs America Oregon, Washington, Wyoming, Montana, and Idaho. Britain also forces the US to give Mexico its Nuevo territory claims out of spite. Mexico looks like this, keeping the green and blue.
The US is war weary and indebted, and avoids fighting for the next two decades.
In 1868, an anti-slavery President is elected and triggers a Civil War, which to Mexico’s benefit is a five year war of attrition that results in Southern Independence.
The South is too tired to fight and paranoid of Northern attacks and consequently isn’t a huge threat for a while. Around the mid 1890s the Confederacy makes a move for Cuba that results in a loss to Spain. The Confederacy feels it’s government is now discredited and the country becomes a pariah due to slavery. They go through massive social upheaval that leaves them weak until the 1920s.
This buys Mexico enough time to settle the North enough to make it unattractive to the US and Confederacy. So Mexico keeps the above borders to the present.
So, what would Mexico look like today, demographically? Even with massive emigration and loss of half their country, it has over 120 million people today. Can Mexico approach 200 million here with the extra living space?
How many European settlers will move there, and with presumably some restrictions on American immigration, who will be allowed to move there? Will there be restrictions on Protestants or Canadians?
OTL Mexico is more European Ancestry in the North.
Will this trend continue further North given the low native population, with the area mostly being a combination of Mestizo’s from Southern Mexico’s core and Europeans?
Will the Natives get it as bad as they often did in OTL Mexico?
Will establishing Spanish be an issue in the North?
The US fails to resolve North West borders with Britain resulting in a war nobody really wants, which ends in a five year defeat for the US from 1845-1850. This costs America Oregon, Washington, Wyoming, Montana, and Idaho. Britain also forces the US to give Mexico its Nuevo territory claims out of spite. Mexico looks like this, keeping the green and blue.
The US is war weary and indebted, and avoids fighting for the next two decades.
In 1868, an anti-slavery President is elected and triggers a Civil War, which to Mexico’s benefit is a five year war of attrition that results in Southern Independence.
The South is too tired to fight and paranoid of Northern attacks and consequently isn’t a huge threat for a while. Around the mid 1890s the Confederacy makes a move for Cuba that results in a loss to Spain. The Confederacy feels it’s government is now discredited and the country becomes a pariah due to slavery. They go through massive social upheaval that leaves them weak until the 1920s.
This buys Mexico enough time to settle the North enough to make it unattractive to the US and Confederacy. So Mexico keeps the above borders to the present.
So, what would Mexico look like today, demographically? Even with massive emigration and loss of half their country, it has over 120 million people today. Can Mexico approach 200 million here with the extra living space?
How many European settlers will move there, and with presumably some restrictions on American immigration, who will be allowed to move there? Will there be restrictions on Protestants or Canadians?
OTL Mexico is more European Ancestry in the North.
Will this trend continue further North given the low native population, with the area mostly being a combination of Mestizo’s from Southern Mexico’s core and Europeans?
Will the Natives get it as bad as they often did in OTL Mexico?
Will establishing Spanish be an issue in the North?