Demographics of Latvia and Estonia in 2017 in the event of a German WWI victory?

CaliGuy

Banned
What would the demographics of Latvia and Estonia look like in 2017 in the event of a German WWI victory?

As for my own thoughts on this, here is what I think:

If both ethnic Russian migration trends during the 20th century in our TL and our TL's African-American Great Migration in the U.S. are anything to go by, most of the ethnic Germans who will settle in Latvia and Estonia in this TL will do so in cities/urban areas (just like ethnic Russians did throughout the other SSRs in the USSR in our TL and just like African-Americans did in the Northern U.S. in our TL). Thus, if Germany ends up keeping control of both Latvia and Estonia up to the present-day (2017) in this TL, I suspect that we will see large ethnic German percentages--indeed, perhaps sometimes even a majority--in the urban areas of Latvia and Estonia (especially in the very large urban areas, such as Riga) while the countryside of both Latvia and Estonia continue to have a relatively low ethnic German percentage.

Indeed, while some ethnic Germans--not only from Germany proper, but also from Austria-Hungary and/or Russia--might initially settle in rural areas in Latvia and Estonia due to the Baltic Barons handing out free land there, given the general trend of urbanization in Germany during this time, I suspect that a majority of these ethnic Germans and/or their descendants will move to urban areas--either in Latvia and Estonia or in Germany proper--in 1, 2, or 3 generations (after their initial move to the Baltic states, that is). Thus, the Latvian and Estonian countrysides are likely to have a low ethnic German percentage of the total population by 2017 in this TL.

Anyway, any thoughts on all of this?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Also, though, if Latvia and Estonia actually regain their independence in this TL, then I expect the ethnic German population there to either meet the same fate (expulsion/emigration) as the pieds-noirs did in Algeria in our TL or to fight the Latvians and Estonians and thus to try creating a partition of this territory.
 
I expect the Russians having gone the way of the Finnish Russians reduced to a relative small size, through still bigger than in Finland. Let's say that they make up 3-4% of the population by modern day. ironic They may be a bigger population than in 1917, because Estonia and Latvia without USSR will likely have a bigger population. Jews would likely be seen as semi-Germans and they would likely have a population increase, with German dominance we will likely see a increase in Germans as well, ironic some of the increase may be Russians who assimilate into Germans. I think a realistic German population will be 15% in Latvia (plus 5% Jews) and 6-7% in Estonia (plus 1-2% Jews). Most of the Latvian Germans/Jews and Russians would likely live in Riga where the Germans/Jews would make up a plurality.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
I expect the Russians having gone the way of the Finnish Russians reduced to a relative small size, through still bigger than in Finland. Let's say that they make up 3-4% of the population by modern day. ironic They may be a bigger population than in 1917, because Estonia and Latvia without USSR will likely have a bigger population. Jews would likely be seen as semi-Germans and they would likely have a population increase, with German dominance we will likely see a increase in Germans as well, ironic some of the increase may be Russians who assimilate into Germans. I think a realistic German population will be 15% in Latvia (plus 5% Jews) and 6-7% in Estonia (plus 1-2% Jews). Most of the Latvian Germans/Jews and Russians would likely live in Riga where the Germans/Jews would make up a plurality.
These projections/figures are realistic; however, you appear to be ignoring the possibility of these three things:

1. Ethnic Germans (from Germany, Austria-Hungary, and Russia) might settle in Latvia and Estonia to get free or very cheap land which is offered to them by the Baltic Barons.
2. Once the economic situation in Latvia and Estonia becomes similar to that of Germany proper, many Germans from Germany proper could move to the cities in Latvia and Estonia.
3. Some--if not many--Latvians and Estonians might follow in the footsteps of the Ruhrpolen and move to industrialized western Germany if given the opportunity.

Also, I completely agree with you that Riga--as the largest city and urban area in Latvia and Estonia--would very likely be the center of the German presence in Latvia and Estonia in this TL.
 
These projections/figures are realistic; however, you appear to be ignoring the possibility of these three things:

1. Ethnic Germans (from Germany, Austria-Hungary, and Russia) might settle in Latvia and Estonia to get free or very cheap land which is offered to them by the Baltic Barons.

The large landholders of the Baltic wouldn't be interested in selling their land, especially not cheaply. I'm sure some of the Russian nobility land will be sold, but honestly there's cheaper and better land elsewhere. So while I'm sure some Germans will buy land in the Baltics, they will be relative limited in number.
2. Once the economic situation in Latvia and Estonia becomes similar to that of Germany proper, many Germans from Germany proper could move to the cities in Latvia and Estonia.

Likely which was why I doubled the German population, I expect the Germans to have lower birth rate than the locals, but expect a increase in population anyway.
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3. Some--if not many--Latvians and Estonians might follow in the footsteps of the Ruhrpolen and move to industrialized western Germany if given the opportunity.

Yes that's quite likely (I think Hamburg and Strettin will be the main places they will emigrate to). But that didn't result in Poles population falling in Posen, I think that neither will we see that in the Baltics.

Also, I completely agree with you that Riga--as the largest city and urban area in Latvia and Estonia--would very likely be the center of the German presence in Latvia and Estonia in this TL.

Another aspect we will have to remember are that the Baltic Duchies will be united so Germans/Jews may only make up 20% in Latvia and 9% in Estonia (likely around 13-14% of the two countries entire population), but neither Estonians nor Latvian will be in majority either in the united state (through Latvians may be close). So as long as Germans can keep the state united there's no clear dominant group.

In fact one argument for a higher German population would be the fact that many children of non-Germans growing up in Riga will use German, simply because of the dominance of German and the fact that while Latvians would be cler number two group in size, the Russians and Estonians would be major group too. Of course being mainly German speakers doesn't necessary mean that they see themselves as Germans, in fact the Russians may have become mostly German sprakers by modern day, but defining themselves by their faith instead of language. But you could have Riga as some kind of Brussel style German enclave.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
The large landholders of the Baltic wouldn't be interested in selling their land, especially not cheaply. I'm sure some of the Russian nobility land will be sold, but honestly there's cheaper and better land elsewhere. So while I'm sure some Germans will buy land in the Baltics, they will be relative limited in number.

The Baltic Barons did agree to hand over a third of their lands for German settlement/colonization in 1918 in our TL, though.

Likely which was why I doubled the German population, I expect the Germans to have lower birth rate than the locals, but expect a increase in population anyway.

OK. However, I think that your population projections here might still be too unfavorable to ethnic Germans.

Yes that's quite likely (I think Hamburg and Strettin will be the main places they will emigrate to).

What about the Ruhr, though?

But that didn't result in Poles population falling in Posen, I think that neither will we see that in the Baltics.

Didn't Poles have a higher total fertility rate than either Latvians or Estonians had, though?

Another aspect we will have to remember are that the Baltic Duchies will be united so Germans/Jews may only make up 20% in Latvia and 9% in Estonia (likely around 13-14% of the two countries entire population), but neither Estonians nor Latvian will be in majority either in the united state (through Latvians may be close). So as long as Germans can keep the state united there's no clear dominant group.

Yes; correct! Plus, if Germany wants to make things really fun, it can allow large-scale Polish and Ukrainian immigration to the United Baltic Duchy (Latvia plus Estonia) to dilute the demographics of this region even further.

In fact one argument for a higher German population would be the fact that many children of non-Germans growing up in Riga will use German, simply because of the dominance of German and the fact that while Latvians would be cler number two group in size, the Russians and Estonians would be major group too. Of course being mainly German speakers doesn't necessary mean that they see themselves as Germans, in fact the Russians may have become mostly German sprakers by modern day, but defining themselves by their faith instead of language. But you could have Riga as some kind of Brussel style German enclave.

Completely agreed with all of this. :)
 
The major difference between Soviet-era Russian immigration--the phenomenon that essentially created Estonia's Russophone population from almost nothing, and vastly enlarged Latvia's larger pre-existing population--and the German immigration that would occur in a timeline where Estonia and Latvia were annexed to the Reich lies in the relative economic position of the Baltics in the two empires.

In the Soviet Union, Estonia and Latvia were probably among the richest republics, offering the highest standards of living and having significant labour shortages. It would not be too inaccurate to compare post-Second World War Soviet migration to Estonia and Latvia to post-Second World War migration to northwestern Europe. In both cases, the immigrants were attracted by labour shortages and the prospect of higher wages and living standards to the richest areas in their bloc. (In other areas, of course, things were different.)

Within the Second Reich, in contrast, Estonia and Latvia are likely to be among the poorest constituent entities. Was there even a recentWith overwhelmingly non-German populations and relatively low living standards, even the most ambitious programs of German rural settlement do not strike me as likely to be fruitful, while German professional migrants may be bet by their native counterparts. There might well be immigrants attracted by industrialization, but again, to be competitive economically the wages they are likely to offer do not strike me as likely to attract German migrants. IIRC in the interwar period both countries were considering trying to set up immigration programs for Polish workers.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
The major difference between Soviet-era Russian immigration--the phenomenon that essentially created Estonia's Russophone population from almost nothing, and vastly enlarged Latvia's larger pre-existing population--and the German immigration that would occur in a timeline where Estonia and Latvia were annexed to the Reich lies in the relative economic position of the Baltics in the two empires.

In the Soviet Union, Estonia and Latvia were probably among the richest republics, offering the highest standards of living and having significant labour shortages. It would not be too inaccurate to compare post-Second World War Soviet migration to Estonia and Latvia to post-Second World War migration to northwestern Europe. In both cases, the immigrants were attracted by labour shortages and the prospect of higher wages and living standards to the richest areas in their bloc. (In other areas, of course, things were different.)

Within the Second Reich, in contrast, Estonia and Latvia are likely to be among the poorest constituent entities. Was there even a recentWith overwhelmingly non-German populations and relatively low living standards, even the most ambitious programs of German rural settlement do not strike me as likely to be fruitful, while German professional migrants may be bet by their native counterparts. There might well be immigrants attracted by industrialization, but again, to be competitive economically the wages they are likely to offer do not strike me as likely to attract German migrants. IIRC in the interwar period both countries were considering trying to set up immigration programs for Polish workers.
Completely agreed with all of this. Indeed, this is why I pointed out about above that large German immigration to these two areas might depend on significant economic improvement in Latvia and Estonia.

Of course, weren't ethnic Germans (and pretty much everyone else as well) in both Austria-Hungary and Russia much poorer than ethnic Germans in Germany? If so, couldn't many of them move to Latvia and Estonia in exchange for free or very cheap land in this TL?

Finally, in your last paragraph, there is a sentence which says: "Was there even a recent"; indeed, what exactly were you going to write in that sentence?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Also, one more question--didn't many ethnic Russians immigrate to Central Asia in Soviet times in spite of the fact that Central Asia was poorer--indeed, perhaps much poorer--than Russia was during this time?
 

NoMommsen

Donor
As always with a german victory in WW I : a lot would depend on "WHEN" , early or late.
But with the Baltics in "german hands" I would assume a rather late victory with Brest-Litowsk and the following Berlion treaty mainly as OTL and maye - for whatever reasons - a "victory" and following overall peace sometimes in midth/autumn 1918.

... as well as what further happens to "Russia proper" ITTL

... Within the Second Reich, in contrast, Estonia and Latvia are likely to be among the poorest constituent entities. ...
Hmmm, there are/were regions in the second reich, that would compete strongly with that honor, i.e. the prussian province of Pommerania.

And "poor" ...question of relations.

I could assume the living standard in the Baltics would still be well above everything east of it, becomming what the Baltics were for the SU :
a door for trade.
IMO they would still be a/the major hub for trade with Russia at least.
The german industrialists would soon discover, that - with most likely lower wages for a long time - it is "profitable" to also produce, what the russian market or even other markets around the Baltic might want. Maybe not complete production but maybe the end-assembly of products for the russian market.
Another at least "start-up" for baltic economical development : troops.
Ther German empire will most likely station a consideable amount of troops there (as did the SU), which bring with them a growth of domestic economy. These troops have to be fed, and served in many ways (I just recall the outcry of local politicians and economists, when a Bundeswehr site should be closed, as the majority of local commerce is heavily dependant on them). Growth of domestic economy might grow into looking for other markets of their products as well, maybe around the Baltic Sea at first ...

Rural, agricultural development would be only a (very) small "side-dish". Therer would be other agricultural regions much more interesting in economic exploitation to a victoriuos German Empire (i.e. an ukrainian client-state).

Therefore I could assume, that a "german Baltics" would/could be quite a magnet for people east of it to come there, whatever nationality of.


How this would translate into population statistics ? Tbh : dunno.
An rural settlement of germans ... unlikely to be of any greater impact. It would most likely not happen, as for i.e. there wouldn't be a situation as OTL, when baltic "goverments" ot groups claiming to be offered german "Freicorps" soldiers land, if they defend them against the Red Army.

German immigration could depend on how the Emire handles the masses of soldiers after victory, to integrate them back into economy, how high there might be a postwar unemployment.
For thre reasons above I could imagine kind of an at least small 'boom' in the baltics, that might attrac unemployed from the german empire proper. ... (Better any wages, even if small, than no wage at all, even if you have to move to Riga or Reval.). I could assume some preferantial handling of them arriving there, with the goverment supporting it (i.e. govermental spending to increase the wages of germans above the wages of locala ... or any other nationality).
 
Completely agreed with all of this. Indeed, this is why I pointed out about above that large German immigration to these two areas might depend on significant economic improvement in Latvia and Estonia.

Of course, weren't ethnic Germans (and pretty much everyone else as well) in both Austria-Hungary and Russia much poorer than ethnic Germans in Germany? If so, couldn't many of them move to Latvia and Estonia in exchange for free or very cheap land in this TL?

Would they want to go to a foreign land where wages and living standards might be even lower than in their homeland?

Finally, in your last paragraph, there is a sentence which says: "Was there even a recent"; indeed, what exactly were you going to write in that sentence?

"Was there even a recent history of German migration to Estonia and Latvia?" is what I was going to write. What little anecdotes I have suggest that the flow was the reverse, of Baltic German to Germany.

Also, one more question--didn't many ethnic Russians immigrate to Central Asia in Soviet times in spite of the fact that Central Asia was poorer--indeed, perhaps much poorer--than Russia was during this time?

It depends on the migration. If we're talking about the settlement of rural areas in the north of Central Asia, especially in Kazakhstan, that is a settlement not functionally very different from that of Siberia further north. There were simply more nomads and natives to deal with in the Kazakh lands than in the adjacent western Siberian plain.

If we're talking about migration further south in Central Asia, that migration was focused on major cities and involved people with certain skill sets as professionals and industrial workers that were not to be found in the Central Asian populations of the time. I don't think that this model is applicable to the Baltic States, where the indigenous populations of the Baltics will be roughly as skilled in as many areas as any likely German incomers.
 
Hmmm, there are/were regions in the second reich, that would compete strongly with that honor, i.e. the prussian province of Pommerania.

Sure: Among the poorest, as I said.

And "poor" ...question of relations.

Therefore I could assume, that a "german Baltics" would/could be quite a magnet for people east of it to come there, whatever nationality of.

I mentioned that, in the interwar era, Estonia and Latvia was interested in recruiting Polish workers. Quite conceivably they might become a magnet for people from elsewhere in the German sphere.

For thre reasons above I could imagine kind of an at least small 'boom' in the baltics, that might attrac unemployed from the german empire proper. ... (Better any wages, even if small, than no wage at all, even if you have to move to Riga or Reval.). I could assume some preferantial handling of them arriving there, with the goverment supporting it (i.e. govermental spending to increase the wages of germans above the wages of locala ... or any other nationality).

The politics aside--how long can Estonia and Latvia be run without paying attention to local demands?--this does not seem likely to lead to much permanent immigration.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Would they want to go to a foreign land where wages and living standards might be even lower than in their homeland?

Would they be even lower than in their homeland, though? Indeed, weren't Latvia and Estonia relatively wealthy for parts of the Russian Empire?

"Was there even a recent history of German migration to Estonia and Latvia?" is what I was going to write. What little anecdotes I have suggest that the flow was the reverse, of Baltic German to Germany.

To my knowledge, No, there wasn't.

It depends on the migration. If we're talking about the settlement of rural areas in the north of Central Asia, especially in Kazakhstan, that is a settlement not functionally very different from that of Siberia further north. There were simply more nomads and natives to deal with in the Kazakh lands than in the adjacent western Siberian plain.

Yes; correct!

If we're talking about migration further south in Central Asia, that migration was focused on major cities and involved people with certain skill sets as professionals and industrial workers that were not to be found in the Central Asian populations of the time. I don't think that this model is applicable to the Baltic States, where the indigenous populations of the Baltics will be roughly as skilled in as many areas as any likely German incomers.

Why do you think that the Baltic locals were as skilled as Germans were, though?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
I mentioned that, in the interwar era, Estonia and Latvia was interested in recruiting Polish workers. Quite conceivably they might become a magnet for people from elsewhere in the German sphere.

Such as Ukrainians?

The politics aside--how long can Estonia and Latvia be run without paying attention to local demands?--this does not seem likely to lead to much permanent immigration.

Several decades, perhaps.
 
Would they be even lower than in their homeland, though? Indeed, weren't Latvia and Estonia relatively wealthy for parts of the Russian Empire?

Sure. That's still compatible with them being fairly poor.

Why do you think that the Baltic locals were as skilled as Germans were, though?

Rates of literacy seem to have been somewhat lower among Balts than among Germans, but not that much lower. That's a crude barometer, I agree, but at the same time the Baltics were among the wealthiest of Russia's provinces, suggesting that in fact the Baltic labour market did contain enough skilled people to provide goods and services to wider Russia. I would be surprised if German immigrants will fill more than relatively small labour shortages, especially considering the likelihood that the Baltics' reorientation from the Russian market to the German would create significant negative shocks to the economy.

Such as Ukrainians?

If Ukraine is in the German sphere, why not?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Sure. That's still compatible with them being fairly poor.

OK.

Rates of literacy seem to have been somewhat lower among Balts than among Germans, but not that much lower. That's a crude barometer, I agree, but at the same time the Baltics were among the wealthiest of Russia's provinces, suggesting that in fact the Baltic labour market did contain enough skilled people to provide goods and services to wider Russia. I would be surprised if German immigrants will fill more than relatively small labour shortages, especially considering the likelihood that the Baltics' reorientation from the Russian market to the German would create significant negative shocks to the economy.

OK.

If Ukraine is in the German sphere, why not?

OK.

Also, though, out of curiosity--do you think that Czechia would have been more Germanizable had Austria-Hungary still imploded after the end of WWI after a long war and a Central Powers victory and had Germany annexed both German Austria and the Sudetenland afterwards?
 
Also, though, out of curiosity--do you think that Czechia would have been more Germanizable had Austria-Hungary still imploded after the end of WWI after a long war and a Central Powers victory and had Germany annexed both German Austria and the Sudetenland afterwards?

If the Czech-majority lands of Bohemia-Moravia were separated from the German-majority lands, where would the Germans necessary for Germanization come from?
 

Deleted member 94680

Also, though, out of curiosity--do you think that Czechia would have been more Germanizable had Austria-Hungary still imploded after the end of WWI after a long war and a Central Powers victory and had Germany annexed both German Austria and the Sudetenland afterwards?

It would depend on your POD and the dominance of the Reich in the subsequent world of course, but I find it unlikely. Within the whole entity of A-H, the Czech 'identity' as it evolved emphasised it's difference from the Imperial identity and the German identity. Whilst the nationalistic elements of A-H politics were relatively late to develop, the Czech identity harkened back to the Moravian dynasties and Bohemian culture, specifying it's difference from German and specifically Vienese culture. The original Trialism that was attempted would have had a third 'Czech' Crown, formalising the independence that Prague felt it was entitled to.

To Germanise whatever form your independent Czech state takes would require removing all of that, implying occupation after a War for instance.


Of course, none of this mandates that Czechia would be opposed to Germany or an Alliance is impossible. Its just more likely that Germans in Czechia would be seen as just that, foreigners in a country for work or technical expertise.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
It would depend on your POD and the dominance of the Reich in the subsequent world of course, but I find it unlikely. Within the whole entity of A-H, the Czech 'identity' as it evolved emphasised it's difference from the Imperial identity and the German identity. Whilst the nationalistic elements of A-H politics were relatively late to develop, the Czech identity harkened back to the Moravian dynasties and Bohemian culture, specifying it's difference from German and specifically Vienese culture. The original Trialism that was attempted would have had a third 'Czech' Crown, formalising the independence that Prague felt it was entitled to.

To Germanise whatever form your independent Czech state takes would require removing all of that, implying occupation after a War for instance.


Of course, none of this mandates that Czechia would be opposed to Germany or an Alliance is impossible. Its just more likely that Germans in Czechia would be seen as just that, foreigners in a country for work or technical expertise.
What about simply getting a lot of Germans to settle in Czechia, though?
 
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