You missed Ljubljana (41.7k in 1910)
Thanks for pointing it out, I added it.
and I think it'd be larger than today, the devastation of WWII is probably avoided, which means a larger rural population to migrate to the city (to my knowledge the city wasn't too badly damaged by the war but there was a tremendous loss of life in the surrounding country side), with a surviving Austria-Hungary there'd also be a much higher volume of economic exchange through the Ljubljana Gap further driving growth. It'd probably retain a bit more of a German character (without Tito evicting them all) but I think it would remain firmly Slovene even if the official maps persist in labeling it Laibach.
I agree. The continuing undisrupted trade between Trieste and Vienna would definitely benefit the city a lot. My guess would be a population around 1,5x greater than OTL.
Is the figure from Wikipedia, if the Empire follow boom and Bust and keep their 1914 borders...we can see easily breaking 100M of Population without issue, could be as Populated as Japan with some lucky butterflies and Vienna the Metropolis of the Danube with a population of 10M and more easily
If the population of A-H increases in the same manner as x (in OTL), then its population would look like this:
Spain(1910–2019): 120 842 300
Bulgaria(1910–1989): 106 737 500
Portugal(1911–2018): 88 475 900
Italy(1911–2018): 86 714 500
France(1911–2018): 84 585 900
Which of these seems the most likely?
The regions with the best infra seem to be poised to see most of the economic activity and as a result most of the population growth as well.
Without doubt, but that map is really not a good indicator of good infrastructure. The Eastern parts of the Monarchy are significantly more farther from Vienna, so it gives a false impression of bad infrastructure.
The Danube-Trieste channel would also boost the economic activity along its planned route.
How seriously was that plan taken? How likely that it's actually built?
If Vienna remained the capital and logistic hub of the empire it would continue growing, so it might be twice the size than OTL 2019.
Yes, although how much of its population would live within the actual limits of the administrative unit of the city? How would TTL Greater Vienna look like? Would something like the OTL nazi city-expansion plans be implemented?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_Vienna
Trieste would also massively benefit from remaining the main port of the empire and would most likely double in size by TTL 2019 (might swallow Koper in it's expansion), with it's main competitor Rijeka being also larger than OTL.
Double the size compared to 1910 or to OTL 2019?
Also I think you might be missing a zero in 2019 numbers for Zagreb.
You're right. I corrected it.
I don't think that Vienna would grow anywhere close to 10 million, unlike France and Great Britain, Austria-Hungary, as the name already indicates, wasn't a unitary state and since
If not else, the border would definitely cut Vienna off from further growth. I wonder how would this affect the size of Pozsony(/Pressburg/Presporok/Bratislava)?
Transleithania, being the lesser developed part, would have undergone the demographic transition a generation or more later than Cisleithania, would've resulted in the former and the latter becoming equal population-wise by the mid 20th century.
Yes, you're right. Would that mean there are other Transleithanian cities, which could make onto the list? Komárom, for example?
So ITTL's 2020 both Vienna and Budapest would be in the 3 to 4 million range, with Prague as a rather distant third with around 1,5 million.
Which of the two would be more populous in your opinion?
As to the total population in 2020, I'd say 70 to 80 million would be more realistic.
With a population at 80 million, in a much more urban environment, with very few other major urban centres to compete with, I find very hard for Vienna to be below 5 million people. I guess somewhere between 6-7 million, being conservative.
With the comparisons I made above, I'm not that sure about this. The 80 million mark should be easily surpassed, imo.
Pozsony and (to lesser degree) Sopron are right at the other side of the border, so if not else, urban/suburban areas strentching through the border wouldn't be considered part of Vienna. The Alps could also limit the growth of the city to the Southwest.
Also, even if there are no real competitors in the immediate vicinity, Budapest and the various regional centres could definitely restrict the overall manpower pull of Vienna, imo.
Berlin, for instance, despite all WWII devastation, the mass immigration to West Germany cities, its impoverishment, is not that far from 5 million mark for its metro area.
The metro is 5 million, but the city itself is only ~3,7 million. Modern day Germany is both smaller and denser, while it's also more homogenous. That makes Berlin's manpower pull stronger imo.
Austria - 8.8 Million
Hungary - 9.7 Million
Bohemia - 10.6 Million
Slovakia - 5.4 Million
Slovenia - 2 Million
Croatia - 4 Million
Bosnia - 3.3 Million
Galicia and Lodomeria - 9.4 Million
Vojvodina - 2 Million
Transylvania - 6.7 Million
South Tyrol - 0.6 Million
Trieste - 0.2 Million
Total Population: 62.8 Million or rounding up 63 Million.
GDP - 1.2 Trillion Dollars
GDP Per Capita - $19000
(Going by OTL Data, Military
Spending: 12 Billion
Active Personnel: 190,000
Reserve Personnel: 200,000
Total Personnel: 390,000
But if we go by a at least 5% to 10% increase to make AH a proper military power:-
Spending: 50 to 60 Billion
Active Personnel: 210,000
Reserve Personnel: 230,000
Total Personnel: 440,000
Not the greatest Great Power, but it would be a lower-tier Great Power like Turkey, but with a far better economy
Arent these just the sum of the areas of A-H today? The country not falling apart in the first place would lead to much different outcome, imo.
