Demographics of a post-Soviet "Finland+Karelia" state?

Say the Winter War goes disastrously wrong for Finland and the USSR annexes the whole thing, merging it with the Karelian ASSR. Many decades later, this Finland breaks away from the Soviet Union along with the other union republics.

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Karelian_Isthmus.png


How many Finns and Swedes would leave during the chaos of the Soviet invasion? How many Russians (and other Soviet nationalities) would settle? Would they largely concentrate in Helsinki and the Karelian isthmus, or also move to the other large cities like Tampere and Oulu? Would eastern Karelia see even a small shift away from the OTL dominance of Russians?
 
What you are asking includes a lot of moving parts. We could plausibly create a bunch of scenarios between the most positive and most negative outcomes for the Finnish people and nation. In a (comparative) "Finland-wank" we see a practical Greater Finland formed inside the USSR, which escapes with (again, comparatively) minor damage from the Soviet policies and decades under Moscow's thumb, and comes out of it as an independent nation with, say, 7-9 million people and a comparatively small Russian/Slav minority, say less than 10%. And in the other end of the spectrum, we could have a devastating Finland-screw where the war, mass flight towards Sweden (and beyond) and Stalinist policies lead to the decimation of the Finnish population, and mass transfers of people this and that way, followed by Russian/Slav migration to Finland since WWII, create a situation where the Finns become a minority in their own country, and assuming OTL style-collapse of the USSR, the post-Soviet "Finnish Republic" is almost as little Finnish as the Karelian Republic is Karelian today.

The actual events and processes of the TL in question would then determine in practice in what place along that spectrum Finland is placed.

A general note on where Russians would be located in a Soviet Finland: apart from eastern Karelia mainly on the western and southern coastal and border areas. Not only is southern Finland more affluent and closer to trade with the rest of USSR and the *WP, it also needs to be occupied with military bases to protect against the Western threats to the USSR and to keep the Finns from escaping the Soviet Motherland in droves. The same defensive and control issues mean that the northwestern coast and western Lapland would get some Russian population as well. The central-eastern interior, say Central Finland, Savonia and Kainuu, would stay comparatively more Finnish, apart from people moving to particular mining and wood industry combines, etc, from the rest of the USSR.

That from the top of my head. I might give this some thought later as well.
 
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An interesting detail would be the case of Åland, which could end up as a forbidden Soviet military zone with only Russian inhabitants. After Finnish Independence in 1990s Åland could remain Russian like Kaliningrad did or it could face the same fate as Crimea later.
 
Could Sweden seize aland and organise “repatriation” (yeah I know the swede there have been living for generations) of Swedish people in south western Finland if Finland collapses during the winter war?

Also could this greater Finland possibly be wealthier than Estonia IRL? Or would we be looking at similar (or worse, iirc the Estonian gdp per capita was higher during the interwar) level of wealth
 
What you are asking includes a lot of moving parts. We could plausibly create a bunch of scenarios between the most positive and most negative outcomes for the Finnish people and nation. In a (comparative) "Finland-wank" we see a practical Greater Finland formed inside the USSR, which escapes with (again, comparatively) minor damage from the Soviet policies and decades under Moscow's thumb, and comes out of it as an independent nation with, say, 7-9 million people and a comparatively small Russian/Slav minority, say less than 10%. And in the other end of the spectrum, we could have a devastating Finland-screw where the war, mass flight towards Sweden (and beyond) and Stalinist policies lead to the decimation of the Finnish population, and mass transfers of people this and that way, followed by Russian/Slav migration to Finland since WWII, create a situation where the Finns become a minority in their own country, and assuming OTL style-collapse of the USSR, the post-Soviet "Finnish Republic" is almost as little Finnish as the Karelian Republic is Karelian today.

The actual events and processes of the TL in question would then determine in practice in what place along that spectrum Finland is placed.

A general note on where Russians would be located in a Soviet Finland: apart from eastern Karelia mainly on the western and southern coastal and border areas. Not only is southern Finland more affluent and closer to trade with the rest of USSR and the *WP, it also needs to be occupied with military bases to protect against the Western threats to the USSR and to keep the Finns from escaping the Soviet Motherland in droves. The same defensive and control issues mean that the northwestern coast and western Lapland would get some Russian population as well. The central-eastern interior, say Central Finland, Savonia and Kainuu, would stay comparatively more Finnish, apart from people moving to particular mining and wood industry combines, etc, from the rest of the USSR.

That from the top of my head. I might give this some thought later as well.

Much appreciated!
 
Could Sweden seize aland and organise “repatriation” (yeah I know the swede there have been living for generations) of Swedish people in south western Finland if Finland collapses during the winter war?
At most Sweden would seize Åland, but only if there was a significant support of annexation from the Ålanders (which, OTL, was actually supported by Ålanders). Even then, the international community would see it as a blatant land grab if Finland didn't agree to it. And Sweden doesn't have the political support nor the political power to stand up against the international community, so even if Finland collapsed I believe Sweden would be cautious. This obviously renders any Swedish involvement in mainland Finland affairs as nigh impossible.
 

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At most Sweden would seize Åland, but only if there was a significant support of annexation from the Ålanders (which, OTL, was actually supported by Ålanders). Even then, the international community would see it as a blatant land grab if Finland didn't agree to it. And Sweden doesn't have the political support nor the political power to stand up against the international community, so even if Finland collapsed I believe Sweden would be cautious. This obviously renders any Swedish involvement in mainland Finland affairs as nigh impossible.
Then again if Finland collapses the government in exile would probably don't see a problem with Sweden "holding on to the islands" for them. And at this time the Ålanders were sympathetic to a Swedish takeover, and would be moreso if the mainland falls.
 
Then again if Finland collapses the government in exile would probably don't see a problem with Sweden "holding on to the islands" for them. And at this time the Ålanders were sympathetic to a Swedish takeover, and would be moreso if the mainland falls.
I understood "seize" as Sweden annexing Åland. In which case I don't think a Finnish government-in-exile would be very happy about that. :p
 
Could Sweden seize aland and organise “repatriation” (yeah I know the swede there have been living for generations) of Swedish people in south western Finland if Finland collapses during the winter war?

What would the Swedes do if Soviet military would enter the Archipelago and Åland after the Swedes have taken it. The islands are Finnish by international agreement and Soviets are enforcing it even if Finland would be a puppet nation or one of the Soviet Republics. Most certainly Sweden does not want war against the Soviet Union especially when Finland has already fallen. There might not be enough sympathy from Western Democracies as the Swedes could be framed as attackers in this context. After Finland has fallen Sweden would have a huge and aggressive country next to it and it would need to be very careful.
 
What would the Swedes do if Soviet military would enter the Archipelago and Åland after the Swedes have taken it. The islands are Finnish by international agreement and Soviets are enforcing it even if Finland would be a puppet nation or one of the Soviet Republics. Most certainly Sweden does not want war against the Soviet Union especially when Finland has already fallen. There might not be enough sympathy from Western Democracies as the Swedes could be framed as attackers in this context. After Finland has fallen Sweden would have a huge and aggressive country next to it and it would need to be very careful.

I mean, let's say Helsinki has been taken, or the finnish government has surrendered, considering it's *the USSR* that is attacking, i think the "western democracies" wouldn't be against Sweden occupying the Aland island to protect the "swedish minority" there, and also to keep aland, an important island in the baltic sea, out of soviet control.

Now this would only work if they do it after finland has been beaten but before the Communists can control aland, but if it does i'm not sure many western countries would be against it.
 
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