Demographics In The Former Soviet Union

What would today's population of the former Soviet Union be if the Holodomor, WW2, Gulags, Mass Executions, Starvation During Collectivism etc were avoided? This also assumes a steady population growth rate.

Also, can you breakdown the population statistics by country please?

Thanks.
 

RousseauX

Donor
What would today's population of the former Soviet Union be if the Holodomor, WW2, Gulags, Mass Executions, Starvation During Collectivism etc were avoided? This also assumes a steady population growth rate.

Also, can you breakdown the population statistics by country please?

Thanks.
This is an issue because it's an extremely unrealistic assumption. Population growth rate OTL for instance dropped by more than half between 1950-1980, to the point where Russia was below replacement rate even by 1980-81. Population growth slows down in response to increase in GDP per capita along with real resource constraints (which only goes away with increase in GDP per capita) and there is no real reason to think that removing the population loss from the first half the 20th century will change that.
 
Yes, as mowque said, we don't have a good model for it. So let's say all of the Stalinist disasters are avoided, we get another 6 mln plus people, maybe as high as extra 20 million.

Depends on the model you're using, this could either result in mindboggling population increases (something like an extra 60 mln by the end?), or we could simply have an earlier demographic transition and depressing birth rates start happening in the 50s instead of the 70s.

Same with WW2; you do get 20+ million, on one hand. On the other hand, the baby boom might be less pronounced than OTL.

Hard to say without a good model and a clear idea of what the interim history is like.
 
Roughly 40 million loss, with OTL rate of 1.7% between 1946-1991 you are looking at 68 million more people in 1991 as a rough guess, totaly around 360+ million in 1991.

Of course, all of history would be different, but still.
 

RousseauX

Donor
Roughly 40 million loss, with OTL rate of 1.7% between 1946-1991 you are looking at 68 million more people in 1991 as a rough guess, totaly around 360+ million in 1991.

Of course, all of history would be different, but still.
I'm pretty sure 1.7% on the average is way, way too high, the post-war baby boom was barely above that
 

ingemann

Banned
Around 400 million, with Central Asia and the Caucasus having the same population, Sibiria a lower population and European Russia, Ukraine, Belarussia and the Baltic State having a significant higher population.

Ethnic Russians alone would likely make up a clear majority (60% instead of 40%).
 
I'd heard some estimates has high as 500 million though I that includes avoiding the Russian Civil War as well. Either way a lot more Slavs with the biggest boost being Ukrainians (twice as many) and Belorussians (ditto).
 
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