Demographics and Population Growth in Russia if Second World War Averted

For the sake of discussion, let's say that the Russian Civil War is pursued to its logical end, and the POD is a few years after that. If the Second World War doesn't take place (or if it must take place, doesn't ravage the core of European Russia) what would Russian demographics and growth patterns look like at the end of the century? Since a lot of Russia's current demographic woes can be traced back to the massive depopulation and indiscriminate slaughters of the Eastern Front, would it be possible to avoid those late 20th century pitfalls by averting a bloody Second World War?
 
Ok, thanks, that's basically what I wanted to know. So how big of a modern day population are we looking at, and what rate of population increase? (positive growth, I'm assuming)
 
Ok, thanks, that's basically what I wanted to know. So how big of a modern day population are we looking at, and what rate of population increase? (positive growth, I'm assuming)

Looking at a population chart of the Russian Federation/Russian SFSR, I can see that the population has been steadily declining since 1993. Hell, in the Republic of Ireland, the population is only half of that it was over 150 years ago, a rarity in human population growth.

Had there been no World War II, the Russian population would probably be at around 200 million people at the very least.
 
The population of the USSR was 45-50 million people lower than it would have been absent WWII. 30 million + direct deaths, the rest indirect.

So that gives us a USSR with a population of 220 million people in 1946, more or less. (WWI, the Civil War, and the famines cost another 28 million plus but the POD doesn't save them.)

The total population of the USSR in 1990 OTL was 293 million, a hair over 50% Russians (70% East Slav in total).

From a 220 million 1946 base instead of a 170 million base and accounting for richer people (lower births, much lower deaths) as the USSR's economy was destroyed in WWII. (Russia was 110 million prewar, 98 million postwar, therefore something like 120 million ATL in 1946.)

My quick and dirty calculation gets us a USSR with a population of 300 million by 1980, with a Russian population of over 160 million. More importantly to your point the demographics of that are much much smoother than OTL, without the loss of tens of million of prime age men in the War and with the gain of their theoretical kids. The Russian % is probably something like 55-60% with 80%+ East Slav, although the Central Asian demographics are still overtaking. The death rate will be vastly lower than OTL, the birth rate moderately lower.

The *USSR is probably a peer competitor to the USA, with a higher population and a much closer per capita GDP than it achieved at any point IOTL.

(However assuming Europe has managed to make it out less damaged or annexed than IOTL, any sort of EU type place outweighs either the USSR or the USA in basically all economic/population factors.)
 
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A lot depends on how the USSR (or whatever emerged out of the civil war) approaches various policies in agriculture, health and safety. From manmade disasters like the Holdomor or the great leap forward to the demographic impacts of an economic collapse like the one in the 1990's - there are a lot of things the government can screw up, which will have a significant impact on demographics.

Overall however, if the USSR holds together and does not go through major upheaval, a total population of around 350m should be possible. Growth in the Turkic Central Asian republics will be much higher, making separatist sentiment there more likely, but on the other hand, without the land gains and border shifts that came after WW2, the (smaller) Belarussian and Ukranian SSR's are more likely to remain in some form of union with Russia.
 
As for the Central Asian Republicans I suspect they will be more Russian in this scenario. Without WW2 to reduce the number of Russians there will be more around to migrate south into Central Asia. That could shift Kazakhstan which at one point was nearly majority Slavic over the edge and keep it as part of Russia.
 
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