Demographic developments of surviving Austria-Hungary

mowque

Banned
Some from my TL

Seeds of Power: The Growth and Expansion of Danubian Manufacturing Power


The Austrian-Hungarian Empire was beset by many problems in 1910, when the Second Atlantic War started. Few, if any, saw that the war had opened a great opportunity for advancement and modernization. Still, not even the most hide-bound could ignore the immediate ramifications of the general European War.
Germany was distracted, as well as Russia. The massive war on the Eastern Front proved to be dangerously close, but at least they weren't fighting inside Austrian borders. The roar of war distracted the powers long enough for Austria to approach it's main interior problems.
These problems ranged widely from low literacy, poor manufacturing, ethnic strife, poor central government, and even the lack of a universal language. Despite all these problems the common salve of money proved to be the savior of the Empire.
The state of the Imperial economy was ramshackle at best. Education was underfunded, efficiency was an unheard of word in many areas, and most of the land still lived off the land, as it had for hundreds of years. Still, despite this the seeds for a economic renaissance was there. The opportunities provided by the SAW and the enterprising, if sometimes mis-guided, hand of Franz Ferdinand would combine to turn these seeds into the basis for a mighty industrial power.
Before the industry is discussed, the context of this development is vital to our understanding. The grand theme , of course, is decentralization. Franz Ferdinand had a vision of a United States of Austria. While his exact vision never came into being, this pressure to 'de-evolve' became quite common in many groups. With the slight break with German relations over SAW, Austria found itself quite free to do what it wanted. Geopolitical factors had given Austria a great opportunity. Trade with Germany grew immensely and quickly buried the hurt feelings of late 1910. Factories boomed, as the even the massive German economy strained under the load of the SAW. Companies like the Josef und Franz Werndl and Company and Austro-Daimler gained massive orders. This first great wave, combined with the great calls for basic items like grain, butter and coal increased the Imperial economy immensely without the costs that would have been involved with war. This instantly become political as Hungarian (and other groups) soon saw that Bohemian and Austrian (German ethnicity) would soon have even more economic power over them.
In a unprecedented move Franz Ferdinand did his best to share the orders out, which invigorated many start-up companies across the Empire. While cries of picking favorites (from Hungarians) and inefficiency (from Germany) rang out neither could turn down the offers. German order instead increased as the war went on. Politically Franz walked a delicate wire, trying to establish his long term goal of a equal Cortia-Bosnia, and a happy Hungary. As a short term carrot, Hungarian firm Granz Industrial Works got immense contracts. The firm even helped build German U-boats, as well as copying plans for the Austrian Navy. Granz (and other companies like it) soon became Franz's fifth column inside of Hungary itself. They cared less about ethnic differences and more about money.
Still this rush of orders, over the entire Empire wasn't a perfect good. In many places it stretched what little economical muscle the area had. Croatia (and most of the poorest areas in general) were ignored for now, and became restless. The bumbling Austrian bureaucracy didn't help matters, as the vast ethnic Empire was pushed to its limit. The railroad system was overworked, and staffing was short even in the largest factories.
Aside from this physical pressure political ones pulled and pushed, even int his time of economic 'plenty'. Count Francis Conrad von Hötzendorf , nearly a stereotype of his class, pushed for a war with Serbia nearly daily. Seeing that this might bring ruin to his Empire, Ferdinand continually said no, and tried to govern in peace. However war swirled around him. As Russia and Germany clashed in massive battles in the East, and Germany began setting up new nations, orders surged in the Empire. Call to join the war had dimmed, as the sheer destruction was shown through photos and 'films'.


Trade with the Balkan nations, still devastated by the Balkan War also picked up as Austria became experienced in the new manufacturing of war. The production of shells, bullets, rifles, even trucks and armored cars increased, slowly, but surely as German made stocks ran low across Europe. Germany's overheated economy demanded still more products, and the weary home front still required food. Many German commanders considered Austria an essential supplier. As one stated “Let them farm, and let us fight”. The Empire did more then farm however. Although ethnic strife was still an important issue (indeed, it might have even been getting worse in some areas) the common bond of money and propensity was beginning to form a new identity in the Empire.
One example of ethnic issues following (and becoming intertwined) with economy is Bohemia. Bohemia had long pressed for greater rights. The Czech culture had been a part of the Austrian-Hungarian Empire for centuries, and had fully developed, enough to want to be free. Many Bohemian nationalists wanted a Monrovia like situation, or even a full agreement like Hungary had. While small Bohemia had the most advanced and developed part of the Empire. Indeed, as the war started, nearly every contract went to Czech companies until Franz Ferdinand stepped in (albeit with a heavy hand).This economic clout (along with a sympathetic monarch) gave them good bargaining position.
With tens of thousands of employees Skoda Works was the epitome of the new 'Czech Ideal'. Founded in 1859, Skoda had only expanded throughout the decades. The prosperous and aggressive modernization had garnered much respect for Bohemia, rightly so. It was one of the few 'heavy steel mills' in the entire Empire, capable of handling massive ship parts and machinery. Exports had included castings, such as part of the piping for the Niagara Falls power plant or for the Suez Canal sluices, as well as machinery for sugar mills in Turkey, breweries throughout Europe, and guns for the Far East and South America.
When the war started however, exports were limited and arms manufacturing became prime business. Indeed, not only Germany but the new nations of Poland and Ukraine desperately needed guns and ammunition. Still, much of Skoda was still making basic machine parts for the other (newly springing up) Austrian factories. This profitable business soon catapulted Skoda into a new dawn. This money inevitably flowed back to Bohemia and only encouraged the nationalists.
This pressure wasn't as bad as it might have been in the past. Fraz was dynamic and ready to break with tradition to get results. He recognized, on many levels, that change was needed and the SAW gave him that chance. Breaking up the special connection with Hungary was even a positive goal for Frridand, who felt that the Magyars had far too much power. (Indeed, Hungary had tried to 'revolt' in 1905). Still, they needed to be placated, and various programs were issued to achieve this. Money was given for schools, roads, and railroads. While many Viennese saw this as appeasement, Franz saw it was temporary 'distraction' as he set up his grand plan.






Break




Underlying this swift expanse of industry was a large foundation of scientific might. Austria (and, to a lesser degree, Hungry and Cortia) had always prided themselves on science and pursuits of knowledge. While theory was stressed, many practical engineers and physicists filled the Empire, during this days of expansion.
Johann Puch is a perfect example of one of these practical inventors/ businessmen. Founding a bicycle company in 1891, Puch soon turned to motorized transport. Known as the First Styrian Bicycle Company, Puch soon went into the lucrative army business. Motorcycles and buses poured off the assembly lines. By 1910 the workshop held over 1,000 workers. Puch retired in 1911, leaving other to run the factory during the “Golden Age” of German war orders. Still, Puch worked hard to modernize not only the factory but the surrounding countryside. 'Puch' cars soon became famous for winning races and rallies across Europe. While his highest form of education was a few classes on locksmithing, Puch had created one of the most successful 'high-tech' firms in the Empire.
Part scientist, part inventor, but above all businessman, Carl Auer von Welsbach soon became the man most concerned with lighting Austria. Welsbach had been an inventor long before the war broke out. Intrigued by metals and their components, he became famous in Vienna for discovering many properties. Soon, he began to focus on making 'bright lights' for commercial usage. In 1898 he founded a company to sell 'metal filament bulbs', much better then what else was on the market. By 1902, Welsbach was finally making the money he had dreamed about. Still, he was not one to rest on his laurels. In 1903 he developed a system of 'flint', that is a fire-starting method by striking two metals together. This proved a huge commercial success, and Wlesbach soon was spreading electric lights (and cigarettes) through Austria-Hungary. The harsh bright light of modernity had everything to do with this inquisitive chemist.
Another side of this foundation of educated talent was the tinkering inventor. While others (Edison, Tesla) were more famous, Austria had it's fair share too. One of these pioneers was Igo Etrich. Enraptured by the concept of flight Etrich was one of the first inventors and developers of fixed-wing flight in the Empire. Working around the Wiener Neustadt airfield, he soon (by 1910) developed the Etrich-Taube (Dove), his first plane. He was aided by cooperation with the Austro-Daimler company, who provided him a small amount of funding (but more importantly) a source of engine parts. The military became interested and by 1913 Etirch planes were the equal to those flying over battlefields across Europe. He moved to Liebau and founded the Etrich-Fliegerwerke company, which built his planes. He developed many success here, and helped train his successor, Ernst Hienkel. As disaster overthrew Germany, Etrich and Heinkel soon became dominant features as they took over the East Europe aerospace industry, bringing out such innovations as seaplanes, catapulting planes and even experiments with rocket powered planes.
 
...a few comments

1. Considering the overall population, my guess would be based on the demographics of *Germany. Germany in 1910 accounted for ca. 65 million inhabitants, Austria-Hungary ca. 52 million.

I would say that Austria-Hungary's larger share of rural population and its probably slower social development would, despite larger emigration overseas, result in Germany and Austria-Hungary (in their 1914 borders) being roughly equal in population in 2010.

Germany's OTL population is at 81 million today. This timeline would see less war casualties, more members of the Polish minority within Germany, OTOH less immigration towards Germany from Russia, Romania, Czechoslovakia throughout the 20th century.

Without the major disruptions of OTL, 100 million should be in reach for both countries, but not much more, maybe a little less: 9x millions.

2. I fully agree on the "Adriatic florida", but not to the same extent as in the US. Europeans are less mobile than Americans when it comes to decisions of the kind, but you will see such developments on a larger scope than we witness it on Mallorca (which OTL has sizable British/German minorities).

3. On cities:

I can NOT imagine Vienna becoming a metropolis on the scope of 6-11 million. Austria-Hungary is not centralized enough to grant this. Also, Paris and London have reached such numbers 100 years ago already while not having grown much since- likewise Berlin. Assuming an Austria-Hungary which is not third world, we won't reach these numbers in the capital.
Besides, there are two other very important cities within the monarchy. Budapest and Prague. While Prague might only slightly surpass OTL numbers (how about something in the range of 1.5-1.75 million), due to the again large number of urban centres in Bohemia/Moravia, Budapest has the potential to become the largest city of the Danubian monarchy. There are little geographical limitations, especially towards the East and Budapest had been the fastest growing metropolitan area in Europe in the years up to 1914. It's population doubled 1890-1910 to more than 1.1 million. In OTL's 2010, Budapest is larger than Vienna as well.

I would assume that ITTL, Vienna would have a population of 2.5-3 million in 2010 with Budapest at rather around 3 million.

Lemberg would also have the potential to become a metropolis of about a million people. Today, it has a population of ca. 750,000 (compared to a bit above 300,000 100 years ago) despite an almost complete population exchange (Habsburg's Lemberg was about 50% Polish, 25% Jewish and also had a sizable German minority). OTL's Krakow is about the same size as OTL's Lemberg and might as well have become a city of almost a million in this timeline (just add 20% of Jews). Same goes for Zagreb/Agram- a minor city still in 1910 but in OTL-2010 close to 800,000. Sarajevo might easily be a city of 600,000.

Now Austria-Hungary's fifth largest city in 1910 was Trieste. Due to its geographic limitations, it is probable to lose this position somewhen, but I assume that instead of as well having a lower population OTL 2010 than in 1910 it should have grown to a city of ca. 500,000.

Bratislava, while too far away to be swallowed by Vienna, might have profitted from its central position as well and have greatly surpassed OTL's population of 427,000. I estimate it at 600,000.

In OTL's Romania, two cities would have had the potential to grow to half a million: Cluj (Klausenburg) and Temesvar.

So here is my guess at Austria-Hungary's largest cities today:

1. Budapest 3.15 million
2. Wien 2.72 million
3. Praha 1.60 million
4. Lwow 1.12 million
5. Krakow 0.98 million
6. Zagreb 0.91 million
7. Cluj 0.70 million
8. Sarajevo 0.69 million
9. Temesvar 0.62 million
10. Bratislava 0.61 million
11. Trieste 0.51 million

Among these cities, only Budapest, Zagreb and Krakow would probably have a dominant character as being a less multiethnic city.

4. The economic center would be an Austro-Hungarian equivalent to the "Euro-Banana". It would go from the Northwestern parts of Bohemia via Prague, Moravia towards Vienna/Bratislava and a focal point in Budapest again- with less intensively developed corridors via Graz/Ljubljana/Zagreb towards Trieste/Pula/Rijeka (maybe extending along the Adriatic down to Dubrovnik/Mostar/Sarajevo) and towards Cracow, maybe extending at lot less intensively towards Lwiw.

Less developed areas would be rural Hungary (including most parts of OTL's Slovakia), Transylvania, Bukovina and Tyrolia - unless tourism develops there as in OTL and as a tradelink between Germany and Italy.

5. Austria-Hungary would have quite a good net of Autobahnen (Autostrada/Autopalny/Dalnide) built during the second half of the 20th century. Regions only relatively recently connected might be the Central parts of Bosnia-Hercegovina and the Eastern parts of Upper Hungary (Slovakia).

Austria-Hungary's net of high-speed railway-connections would probably be similar to the OTL-German system and ressemble less the rather centralized French TGV-net.

6. Despite the Balkan Wars of 1912/13 having been the last major wars fought on European soil, Austria-Hungary will still have a sizable army and the draft due to the perceived importance of the army as one of the monarchy's most important common institutions.

7. The now 97-year-old Otto I abdicated three years ago due to health reasons. He passed the monarchy on to his oldest son Karl in quite a good shape after his 67-year-reign (1930-2007). The heir of Franz Ferdinand (1916-1930) had resolved almost all of the bitter ethnic antagonies which had escalated during the reign of his conflict-happy predecessor. In a gradual process, he managed to federalize and parliamentarize the monarchy thoroughly without encouraging separatist political forces.

8. Having a look at today's political outlook of Austria-Hungary, it is surprising how little it ressembles Popovici's concept of the United States of Greater Austria. But, actually, Popovici's work had been forgotten during the crucial decades of reform and only been rediscovered recently. Otto admitted that a lot had been improvised due to the necessities and possibilities of the day, especially in the tumultuous 1930s.
Today, Austria-Hungary (while colloqially usually called the Danubue-Monarchy in most countries) formally ressembles a lot the framework it had in 1910, but despite the official name, Dualism is a thing of the past since 1927. But most old names remained to cover the changes and compromizes (and few border adjustments) which occured underneath.
 
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1. I can NOT imagine Vienna becoming a metropolis on the scope of 6-11 million.
So here is my guess at Austria-Hungary's largest cities today:

1. Budapest 3.15 million
2. Wien 2.72 million
3. Praha 1.60 million
4. Lwow 1.12 million
5. Krakow 0.98 million
6. Zagreb 0.91 million
7. Cluj 0.70 million
8. Sarajevo 0.69 million
9. Temesvar 0.62 million
10. Bratislava 0.61 million
11. Trieste 0.51 million

Vienna's population grew from
1,365,000 in 1890 to 2,031,000 in 1910, that's roughly 2.4% per annum while Austria's grew 9.8% per annum. So even if Vienna's population were to grow at half that rate it would still be 7.5 million today.

Greater London had 7,537,000 in 1910 and Paris had 2,847,000 and Budapest had 880,000.

Today greater Paris has about 12 million people so it's quadrupled in size, the London metro areas has about 14 million so it's almost doubled. Yet somehow greater Vienna is only going to grow by 35% in 100 years as the capital of an Empire? Yet Budapest is going to nearly quadruple in the same time, am I missing something?

Between 1900 and 1910 Vienna grew at an annual rate of 2.1% while Greater London grew by 1.4% and Paris 0.5%. So I'd assume that it would continue to grow as a city unless something catastrophic happened. Budapest's growth was just under 2.3% so I'd assume that if Vienna were only to grow to 2.72 million, Budapest wouldn't be e

Here is a list of the 10 largest cities in 1910 census

Vienna 2,031,498
Budapest 880,371
Prague 223,741
Lemberg 206,113
Krakow 154,141
Graz 151,886
Brünn 125,737
Szged 118,328
Szabadka/Maria Theresiopel 94,610
Debrecen 92,729

According to your calculations
Budapest 3.6 x as large as 1910
Vienna has only grown by 30% in 100 years
Prague 7 x as large as 1910!
Lemberg (Lviv) 5.4 x as large
Agram (Zagreb) 11.5 x as large
Kolozsvár /Klaussenburg (Cluj) 11.5 x as large
Sarajevo 13 x as large
Temesvar 8.5 x as large
Pressburg 7.8 x as large
Trieste 2.2 x as large
 
Vienna 2,031,498
Budapest 880,371
Prague 223,741
Lemberg 206,113
Krakow 154,141
Graz 151,886
Brünn 125,737
Szged 118,328
Szabadka/Maria Theresiopel 94,610
Debrecen 92,729

According to your calculations
Budapest 3.6 x as large as 1910
Vienna has only grown by 30% in 100 years
Prague 7 x as large as 1910!
Lemberg (Lviv) 5.4 x as large
Agram (Zagreb) 11.5 x as large
Kolozsvár /Klaussenburg (Cluj) 11.5 x as large
Sarajevo 13 x as large
Temesvar 8.5 x as large
Pressburg 7.8 x as large
Trieste 2.2 x as large

About Brno (Brünn) - since it is my hometown, I need to help it a little :D

It has been one of the most important industrial town of the monarchy, the population was a mix of Czechs and Germans (nearly 50-50, IIRC) and it was close to Vienna and Pressburg (Bratislava). It had all the prerequisites to keep growing into a pretty large town.

Today in OTL, Brno has about 400,000 inhabitants. Without the expulsion of the Germans, the Communist rule and the severing of its links with Vienna, it would grow to ~ 700,000 at least, maybe more. The population would become more Czech (let's say 60-40), as this was already the trend during the final decades of A-H.
 
I know this topic is old, but i didnt want to make a new one, so i hope its ok to revive this tiopic.


I have a question for my (ASB) scenario, assuming Austria Hungary would have federalized, do you think the Hungarians would have outnumbered the Germans ? Or would Hungary be rather agricultural while German Austria (atleast in the flatter areas ) would be more industrial and urban
How would Austria-Hungary take care of the language problem ? I dont mean german should be taught as only language, the other ethnic groups are still able to speak their own language and keep their own culture etc, i just mean that german could be taught as second foreign language in school, so that there is a language which most people in the country atleast partially understand/speak. Or would they just use english for this, or maybe even german seeing as in this timeline Europe is perhaps more german dominated as Austria-Hungary and and the German Empire won WWI and also the alternate WWII in my scenario.
 
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Don't necro, if you can't find a thread on the topic less than a month old start a new one.

Why not, exactly? The moderators have stated in the past that as long as it's a worthwhile post, it's OK to necro threads, and his post certainly seems worthwhile.

Also, it's nice to have the previous posts to draw upon in a discussion.
 
Regarding population growth

Austria Hungary can realistically only survive long term if the World Wars are averted. If they are averted Europe will not be impoverished by them as it was in OTL, nor by communist rule resulting from those wars in certain parts of the continent. So general prosperity will reach post economic miracle standards significantly earlier (late 1920s, early 1930s) thus leading to an earlier drop in birth rates. There would likely also not have been OTLs post war baby boom period, which many sociologists partly regard as a subconcious collective reaction to the losses suffered during WW2.
 
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