Democratic primary outcomes if Jesse Jackson doesn't run in 1988?

raharris1973

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What if Jesse Jackson decides not to run in 1988 for the Democratic nomination or is unavailable to run? Let's further specify that this is not for any underhanded reason that reflects poorly on any of the other candidates to run 1988. Jesse Jackson ran for the nomination and performed as historically in the 1984 primaries however.

How does the absence of Jackson affect the Democratic nominating contest in 1988, and the subsequent general election.
 
Surprisingly, the candidate that would benefit most from such a scenario would be Al Gore. Remember, the South was still home to many centrist and conservative Democrats who had yet to switch to the Republican Party, and Gore himself was a United States Senator from Tennessee and still regarded as relatively moderate. I think that the Gore campaign was banking that on their candidate sweeping the South to build the momentum necessary to win the nomination. (As an aside, then-Texas state representative Rick Perry, a Democrat at the time, endorsed Gore during the primary season.) The strategy was basically solid - four years later, Bill Clinton used a similar plan to win his party's presidential nomination.

However, Jesse Jackson performed extremely well with black voters, winning much of the Deep South and arguably kneecapping the Gore campaign. My impression is that this was regarded as a relatively surprising development even considering Jackson's strong performance in the region during the 1984 primary season, which was probably indicative of the Democratic Party and media of the era underestimating how integral African Americans had become to the party's coalition. Clinton was lucky that Jackson did not run again in 1992, actually.

So, had Jesse Jackson not run that year, Al Gore may very well have gone on to win the 1988 presidential election.
 
I agree Gore definitely benefits as the south goes for him. Would a lack of Jackson help the more economically populist campaign of Dick Gephardt? How about Paul Simon?
 
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