Democratic primary if Jesse Jackson runs in 1992?

raharris1973

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What if Jesse Jackson ran in 1992 for the Democratic nomination?

Who would ultimately win the Democratic nomination and why?

Who would win the general election?
 
Harkin may be helped, Clinton would have a lot less runway with the competition in the south.

I could be convinced otherwise, but gut says to me Jackson would still have a hard time winning in 1992, a twice ‘also ran’
 
Jackson isn't getting nominated. He hurts Clinton in the south and probably hurts Harkin in the north. I think Tsongas or Brown would end up with the nomination.
 

raharris1973

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Jackson isn't getting nominated. He hurts Clinton in the south and probably hurts Harkin in the north. I think Tsongas or Brown would end up with the nomination.

Would Tsongas or Brown win the general?
 
I haven't been able to find any reliable polling for the Pre-Primary period when Jackson was considered a potential contender, so my analysis rests on him maintaining his prior performance from 1988.

Under such circumstances he would be the reliable frontrunner throughout the primary season by varying margins, as the divided field suits his candidacy well, and the opposition struggles to find a candidate to rally around until it is far too late in the race. Tsongas would have made an impressive entrance amongst the candidates standing against Jackson, but his fiscal positioning alienated a large swath of the Democratic party and tended not to play well outside certain locales. Clinton I imagined would have after some months emerged as consensus candidate of the New Democrats, though not until after a period of time where division between the Clinton and Tsongas camps enables Jackson to garner wins in States like New York, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. The resulting coalition would have been weak though, as many Tsongas supporters may well have opted to still vote for their preferred candidate when on the ballot rather than Clinton, particularly after weeks of finger-pointing as to who was enabling Jackson to win, and Clinton's integrity remained in question by others; the best comparison that comes to mind is the "Kasich-Cruz Alliance" of the 2016 Republican Primaries aimed at stopping Trump.

Which means by the end the primary map probably looks thus:


ji1FV2T.png

The problem here though is that while Jackson is the clear leader in the popular vote and amongst pledged delegates, it would only be by a plurality. It isn't inconcievable that Bill Clinton and Paul Tsongas could hammer out a deal where one endorses the other in return for the VP slot, and Jesse Jackson was never particularly popular amongst the Democratic rank-and-file who tended to become Super-Delegate regulars. However, in denying him the nomination, there is a real risk of alienating African-Americans, and that can be catastrophic for the Democratic Party in some parts of the country if they fail to turn out and vote; on the other hand they risk alienating a host of voters who consider Jackson as far too liberal for their tastes, or who simply can't bring themselves to vote for an African American, and debilitate turnout that way. For those at the top, there emerges a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation they had hoped could be avoided.

It honestly leaves me without an answer as to who the nominee would be, as it could go any which way. Regardless of how things are resolved, the Democratic ticket would enter the general election weakened in some manner, with Perot as the major beneficiary (I don't see why putting Jackson in the running would have him sit out).
 
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