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In 2004 there were three Senate races which Republican candidates won that could reasonably be termed close races.

In Florida Mel Martinez defeated Betty Castor 49.4-48.3

In Kentucky Jim Bunning defeated Daniel Mongiardo 50.7-49.3

and perhaps most significantly-then Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle lost reelection by a margin of 50.6-49.4

What if these races, which were relatively narrow by the standards of such elections, had gone the other way? What would the impact of three additional Democratic Senators in 2005-2007 have been?

Would Daschle's continued presence Leadership at all impact the 2006 election? Could the Democratic Party be as successful in that cycle if Daschle was still in the Senate?

Would Daschle's reelection prevent Obama's Campaign for the Presidency? Daschle's reelection probably means Daschle retains Pete Rouse-and Rouse was a crucial advisor to Obama early on.

On the other hand in this scenario Obama will have a strong early supporter as a Majority Leader which might mitigate the impact of Rouse's absence to an extent. It's easy to imagine Senator Daschle wanting to help Senator Obama given that Private Citizen Daschle did so as early as he did.

Of course that's leaving aside the probability that this slight change in 2004 will butterfly Obama's campaign before Daschle's reelection has a chance to make a concrete impression

If Daschle's reelection doesn't upend the possibility of an Obama administration how would this divergence impact things in 2009?

These three Senators would not have been up for reelection until 2010. Which means that all else equal the party has a 61 seat supermajority before Al Franken is sworn in if Spector switches and a 62 seat supermajority thereafter.

In short what does the second term of George W. Bush look like with three extra Democrats in the Senate and if this divergence does not butterfly the Obama era away entirely what does the 2009-2011 period look like with such a massive Democratic Majority? Admittedly the post-2008 part of this will almost certainly be butterflied away. But I thought the idea would make for an interesting thought experiment.
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