Democratic China?
- Thread starter Bomster
- Start date
Probably the freest national elections in Chinese history were the first parliamentary elections of the Chinese Republic in the winter of 1912-13. True, only property-holding literate males could vote. But "Despite the restrictions that limited the vote, these elections truly did constitute a national consultation. More than three hundred political parties and organizations took part in it. There were 40 million registered electors, twenty times as many as for the elections to the provincial assemblies in 1909. The political debate was open and free and was recorded by the press. In many respects, this poll seems to have been more democratic and more meaningful than any that followed." Marie-Claire Bergere, Sun Yat-sen (translated from the French by Janet Lloyd), Stanford University Press, 1998, p. 226. http://books.google.com/books?id=vh7M1u4IGFkC&pg=PA226
The clear winner of the elections was the Guomindang, a party organized by Song Jiaoren (Sung Chiao-jen) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Song_Jiaoren in August 1912 out of Sun Yat-sen's old Revolutionary Alliance and some minor parties. Song felt that only a party with a powerful, united majority in Parliament could check the ambitions of Yuan Shikai. The elections seemed to give him what he wanted: 269 GMD deputies out of a total of 423. Given the number of parties, and given how recently the GMD had been organized, this was a remarkable triumph, and Song deserves credit for it. Song kept the first two of Sun's "three principles of the people"--nationalism and democracy--but dropped the third, the "people's livelihood," which sounded too much like socialism to the merchants and gentry. (He also dropped another "radical" idea of Sun--equality of the sexes.) Song not only used the Guomindang to rally the local elites, but campaigned tirelessly himself, in his own province of Hunan and elsewhere. He attacked the policies of Yuan Shikai, whom he said was incapable either of solving China's financial problems or of preventing Russia from detaching Outer Mongolia from China. "He argued for a system of ministerial responsibility, for the election of provincial governors, and for regional autonomy. His message was well received by the elites, whose political awareness was rooted in their commitment to community interests." Bergere, p. 227. http://books.google.com/books?id=vh7M1u4IGFkC&pg=PA227
To Song Jiaoren's demand for an all-GMD cabinet led by Song (which would in effect restrict Yuan Shikai to a figurehead role), Yuan gave his answer on March 19, 1913: assassins sent by Yuan shot and killed Song at the Shanghai railroad station. (At least it seems generally assumed that Yuan was behind the assassination: the assassins were linked to his premier. It is just barely possible, however, that Yuan himself did not want Song killed.) Yuan was soon to establish a dictatorship and to attempt unsuccessfully to restore the monarchy. His death in 1916 was followed by an era when China was torn between rival warlords, with no real central government.
So the first step toward allowing democracy to establish itself in China would be to allow Song Jiaoren's experiment in parliamentary government to proceed. Unfortunately, for Yuan to accept a parliamentary democracy that would reduce him to figurehead status would be totally out of character for this veteran of the Qing court. But maybe if Yuan suddenly dies of a heart attack before he can kill Song...
The clear winner of the elections was the Guomindang, a party organized by Song Jiaoren (Sung Chiao-jen) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Song_Jiaoren in August 1912 out of Sun Yat-sen's old Revolutionary Alliance and some minor parties. Song felt that only a party with a powerful, united majority in Parliament could check the ambitions of Yuan Shikai. The elections seemed to give him what he wanted: 269 GMD deputies out of a total of 423. Given the number of parties, and given how recently the GMD had been organized, this was a remarkable triumph, and Song deserves credit for it. Song kept the first two of Sun's "three principles of the people"--nationalism and democracy--but dropped the third, the "people's livelihood," which sounded too much like socialism to the merchants and gentry. (He also dropped another "radical" idea of Sun--equality of the sexes.) Song not only used the Guomindang to rally the local elites, but campaigned tirelessly himself, in his own province of Hunan and elsewhere. He attacked the policies of Yuan Shikai, whom he said was incapable either of solving China's financial problems or of preventing Russia from detaching Outer Mongolia from China. "He argued for a system of ministerial responsibility, for the election of provincial governors, and for regional autonomy. His message was well received by the elites, whose political awareness was rooted in their commitment to community interests." Bergere, p. 227. http://books.google.com/books?id=vh7M1u4IGFkC&pg=PA227
To Song Jiaoren's demand for an all-GMD cabinet led by Song (which would in effect restrict Yuan Shikai to a figurehead role), Yuan gave his answer on March 19, 1913: assassins sent by Yuan shot and killed Song at the Shanghai railroad station. (At least it seems generally assumed that Yuan was behind the assassination: the assassins were linked to his premier. It is just barely possible, however, that Yuan himself did not want Song killed.) Yuan was soon to establish a dictatorship and to attempt unsuccessfully to restore the monarchy. His death in 1916 was followed by an era when China was torn between rival warlords, with no real central government.
So the first step toward allowing democracy to establish itself in China would be to allow Song Jiaoren's experiment in parliamentary government to proceed. Unfortunately, for Yuan to accept a parliamentary democracy that would reduce him to figurehead status would be totally out of character for this veteran of the Qing court. But maybe if Yuan suddenly dies of a heart attack before he can kill Song...
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If one were to try to make a POD out of this, were there any powerful enemies Yuan Shikai had or any health issues? Any situation that could take him out of Chinese politics?
MrP
Banned
One possible answer is explored in With Iron and Fire, published by Meadow's Sea Lion Press. The POD is Yuan's death in 1912.
Teejay
Gone Fishin'
Have the Kuomintang win the Chinese Civil War, there would be little doubt The Republic of China would have become a democratic nation like Taiwan did in OTL after a period of authoritarianism.
I’ve never read that story, but just wondering if Yuan Shikai died in 1912-1913 what would be the ramifications? He was the President of the Chinese Republic. Would Sun Yat-Sen replace him and attempt to built a stable democracy alongside a still-living Song Jiaoren? Or would their differences destroy everything they worked for? Also how would the Beiyang Army factor into this with the death of Shikai? Could this lead into an earlier warlord era, or civil war, could someone rise to take Shikai’s place, or could a strengthened central government that avoided the dictatorship of Yuan be able to gain their loyalty? So many questions, this period of Chinese history is indeed an interesting one...
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Have any of you read Qilai! Qilai!, folks? It shows a possible way to get the PRC to become democratic.
I just read through that TL, it was fantastic. I especially liked General Secretary Jobs
I never thought about a democratic PRC. I always imagined an ROC that managed to hold onto the mainland and became democratic. I’m thinking about writing an ATL involving Song Jiaoren that leads to a stable Republic of China, but I’ve never written an ATL.
MrP
Banned
Things could indeed go plenty of different ways. In that TL Liang Qichao is called in to broker an agreement between the Beiyang and republican factions, and gets his former mentor Kang Youwei to become Yuan's successor.
However it does take China several decades to become democratic.