Democratic China

This may be far fetched but in 1980 so was the peaceful re-unification of Germany and the relatively peaceful breakup of the USSR

1 Chinese Business owners protest about political interference stifling business
2 Protests escalate into widespread demonstrations
3 Peoples army refuse to use force to crush what is now a revolt and refuse to shut down web
4 Protestors call for elections, communist leaders go into exile
5 First democratic government abolishes the one child policy

What will happen next?
 
6. By 2000, China has a population problem (more so)
7. By 2010, famine is widespread
8. By 2020, possible civil war?


Not only does the one-child policy (isn't it two for rural families?) eventually curve the population, but having only one child means families have resources left over after they pour them into their children. Resources in the form of disposable income. They use this to buy stuff they don't need, which helps the economy. Of course, outsourcing to China helps their economy too. India's economy is booming as well, but on average, the Chinese have a higher standard of living.

In the case of a new 'dynasty' taking over China, it would be nice if it were a relatively quick change (like when the Han and Ming took over) but more often or not, when a Dynasty is overthrown, the Middle Kingdom falls into a Warring States period. If the People's Dynasty was removed, it's entirely possible that China would fragment like it did after the fall of the Han, Tang and Manchu. Plus, Taipei might come in and try to force their policies on the mainland Chinese, which they might not appreciate. It has been sixty years since the Nationalists had a sizable presense on the mainland.

This may be far fetched but in 1980 so was the peaceful re-unification of Germany and the relatively peaceful breakup of the USSR

1 Chinese Business owners protest about political interference stifling business
2 Protests escalate into widespread demonstrations
3 Peoples army refuse to use force to crush what is now a revolt and refuse to shut down web
4 Protestors call for elections, communist leaders go into exile
5 First democratic government abolishes the one child policy

What will happen next?
 
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