Dem 1996 after a Bush second term

Who would be the Democratic nominee in 1996 if Bush wins a second term?

  • Joe Biden

    Votes: 3 5.3%
  • Bill Bradley

    Votes: 4 7.0%
  • Jerry Brown

    Votes: 1 1.8%
  • Bill Clinton

    Votes: 5 8.8%
  • Mario Cuomo

    Votes: 13 22.8%
  • Paul Wellstone

    Votes: 7 12.3%
  • Dick Gephardt

    Votes: 1 1.8%
  • Al Gore

    Votes: 6 10.5%
  • Bob Graham

    Votes: 1 1.8%
  • Tom Harkin

    Votes: 1 1.8%
  • Sam Nunn

    Votes: 5 8.8%
  • Anne Richards

    Votes: 5 8.8%
  • Chuck Robb

    Votes: 1 1.8%
  • Bob Kerrey

    Votes: 1 1.8%
  • Jesse Jackson

    Votes: 3 5.3%
  • Others (nominate an other candidate)

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    57
So, let's assume Bush Sr wins a second term in 1992. Four years later Democratics seem well positioned to finally reclaim White House after sixteen years of GOP rule, especially with Quayle or Dole to stand for the Republicans. But who is, in your opinion, the more probable nominee? And why?
 
I will presume Bush wins facing a more liberal democrat, probably northern instead of Clinton.
In 96 the democrats run a more centrist southerner like Sam Nunn.
 
reaganism burns out instead of getting to enjoy a second wind after losing to the dems in a "sure" lection, so odds are you get a liberal in reaction and never any bill clinton types. cuomo i guess
 
I picked Sam Nunn, as I assume the DLC would be even more influential in the Alt 1996 Dems, particularly with all of the advantages the Republicans would have going into 1996.
 
I picked Sam Nunn, as I assume the DLC would be even more influential in the Alt 1996 Dems, particularly with all of the advantages the Republicans would have going into 1996.

If Clinton loses in 1992, doesn't that undermine the "southern moderates are more electable" narrative within the Democratic Party and strengthen the "we need a real liberal to fire up our base" narrative?
 
If Clinton loses in 1992, I imagine that the bulk of the blame would be pinned on him personally. It's easy to look the other way on moral and ethical failings when your guy is winning, but if he lost that'd be a very different story. Plus the DLC was strong and would push the "It was Clinton, not Clinton's politics, that caused us to lose" argument.

How does Bush pull out the win in 1992? From July to November there wasn't a single poll that had HW ahead or even very close. Maybe he pressures Powell into joining the ticket? I ask this because what the GOP side is like is probably going to have an impact on who the Dems nominate.

The 1996 GOP Primary, the party was aware that Quayle wasn't the strongest candidate. Dole might be able to clinch it, but a lot of his seizing the nomination OTL was because of how few other people were running. If Powell is Bush's VP in 92, maybe he'd be nominee. I'd put good money on the Draft Powell movement being stronger (because the GOP recognizes how tough a fifth term in power would be) or Jack Kemp having a strong shot due to having been a cabinet member for 8 years. Maybe Kemp gets a bigger and more important cabinet role in the second term. I

But looking at names listed in the poll...

Biden? Gaffe-prone. Bradley? Maybe. Jerry Brown? Too weird. Bill Clinton? Nope. Ya blew it buddy. Mario Cuomo? Possible, but he had his reasons OTL for not running including NY State not doing too hot. Paul Wellstone? Too liberal AND not a big enough national following (Cuomo at least had a big national following). Dick Gephardt? I'm not sure. Moderate and midwestern could work, but was he all that great a campaigner? Al Gore? Stained by Clinton. Ann Richards? You get a southern gal with a liberal streak, which is a decent combo. Tom Harkin? Not that big a name. Bob Graham? How big a name was he? I can see it sort of, but I wouldn't put him high on the list. Sam Nunn? He will have some flack after a southern moderate just lost an election, but he also was a pretty respected guy on his own merits and wouldn't have Clinton's ethical failings. Jesse Jackson? Hymietown. Bob Kerrey? Relatively young, midwestern, sort of liberal but not too liberal, lost his legs in war. Not a bad call. Chuck Robb? Idk.

It's a bit of a cliche on this forum, but Richards threads the needle pretty well in terms of exciting liberals but also catering to some less liberal demos. If you wanna try the two southerners thing again, I think an Anne Richards - Bob Graham Ticket would be very strong in a general election.
 
Last edited:
If Clinton loses in 1992, doesn't that undermine the "southern moderates are more electable" narrative within the Democratic Party and strengthen the "we need a real liberal to fire up our base" narrative?

I'm assuming Clinton wasn't the nominee in 1992.
 
Cuomo, Harkin, Richards, or Gephardt are the most likely of those listed. Gore is possible if Bush beats someone other than Clinton in 1992, but he still has his Senate seat to defend that year in an increasingly red Tennessee whether Gore is tainted by a Clinton loss or not. Bradley and Kerrey are also possible to. Brown is too weird at that time and Graham had a tendency to be a bit quirky to. Jackson is never getting nominated for obvious reasons and and Wellstone is too liberal, doesn't have that strong of a following, and like Gore would be up for re election.
 
Top