Delaying Hong Kong Handover

Now, even if Britain did get control of the New Territories in perpetuity in the Second Convention of Peking, or at a later date, British rule over Hong Kong, or Hong Kong independence, isn't tenable without China's say so (and China isn't going to give its say so. Push comes to shove, it'll just pull a Goa).

So let's that that instead of a 99 year lease for the New Territories, the Second Convention of Peking leases the New Territories for 120 years (or 125 years, though we might be going into Future History territory with that date), thus moving the Handover to 2017 (or 2022).

I figured 120-125 years is interesting enough to butterfly some differences into being (the CCP isn't going to wait around for a 200 year lease to run out).

So what political, economic and other assorted differences from OTL would we see if the Handover happened last year? Or if it will happen in three year's time?
 
I don't know too much about Hong Kong, but I could see China willing to wait out the lease. Or at least being willing to offer a financial incentive for the territory. If the lease had been in perpetuity they'd have probably just forced the issue. But China's growing power is eventually going to draw Hong Kong in. It could unfortunately be used as an electoral chess piece depending on how exactly China and the rest of the world treats the situation.
 
I don't know too much about Hong Kong, but I could see China willing to wait out the lease. Or at least being willing to offer a financial incentive for the territory. If the lease had been in perpetuity they'd have probably just forced the issue. But China's growing power is eventually going to draw Hong Kong in. It could unfortunately be used as an electoral chess piece depending on how exactly China and the rest of the world treats the situation.
Agreed, China would be willing to wait if the lease was a little longer. Honestly, the UK would probably be pretty eager to hand it over if they still had it. HK is of little value to the Brits today, and a potential squabble with China is VERY undesirable.
 
I can see no possibility that a China that was fairly friendly to the UK (look at export of Spey engines for eg:) would have been denied the Hong Kong territories .
 
Agreed, China would be willing to wait if the lease was a little longer. Honestly, the UK would probably be pretty eager to hand it over if they still had it. HK is of little value to the Brits today, and a potential squabble with China is VERY undesirable.

Hong Kong may not have been of much value, but given how strong it's economy was it really wasn't a major drain on the UK either.

Only ways I could see the UK keeping Hong Kong on a more or less permanent basis would be taken the New Territories area by force years earlier then when the leased in, something similar to Gibraltar, China somehow coming out of WW2 and the Chinese Civil War even worse then OTL somehow, or possibly the Sino Soviet split going hot at some point and the PRC getting their butts kicked by the Soviets.
 
Agreed, China would be willing to wait if the lease was a little longer. Honestly, the UK would probably be pretty eager to hand it over if they still had it. HK is of little value to the Brits today, and a potential squabble with China is VERY undesirable.

Well, I was wondering what the political impact in Hong Kong would be if the Handover had happened, say, last year? Would there be an actually meaningful separatist movement, a stronger Chinese identity, etc?

I don't think Britain would grant much more in the way of democracy (PRC equities aside, the various oligarchs in Hong Kong wouldn't tolerate widening suffrage, since that would likely see welfare friendly politicians getting voted in).
 
Hong Kong may not have been of much value, but given how strong it's economy was it really wasn't a major drain on the UK either.

Only ways I could see the UK keeping Hong Kong on a more or less permanent basis would be taken the New Territories area by force years earlier then when the leased in, something similar to Gibraltar, China somehow coming out of WW2 and the Chinese Civil War even worse then OTL somehow, or possibly the Sino Soviet split going hot at some point and the PRC getting their butts kicked by the Soviets.
The problem with keeping Hong Kong permanently British is that eventually some sort of government will rise, in southern China at least, that has enough to do the bare minimum to force a handover (cut off water, economic sanctions (without access to Mainland trade in goods and finance, there's no real economic reason for Hong Kong to exist).
 
Well, I was wondering what the political impact in Hong Kong would be if the Handover had happened, say, last year? Would there be an actually meaningful separatist movement, a stronger Chinese identity, etc?

I don't think Britain would grant much more in the way of democracy (PRC equities aside, the various oligarchs in Hong Kong wouldn't tolerate widening suffrage, since that would likely see welfare friendly politicians getting voted in).

I imagine China woulden't be so keen on allowing "One China, Two Systems" sweetheart terms for the reunification: they'd want Hong Kong integrated fully into the Chinese customs and economic system. That whiplash would likely be producing a stronger in terms of sentiment seperatist movement, since there woulden't be an accomidationist "middle ground" of maintaining the status quo to fall back on, though in material terms it would be alot weaker considering the mass power differential and few kids gloves on China's part.
 
I imagine China woulden't be so keen on allowing "One China, Two Systems" sweetheart terms for the reunification: they'd want Hong Kong integrated fully into the Chinese customs and economic system. That whiplash would likely be producing a stronger in terms of sentiment seperatist movement, since there woulden't be an accomidationist "middle ground" of maintaining the status quo to fall back on, though in material terms it would be alot weaker considering the mass power differential and few kids gloves on China's part.
I think Beijing would probably still implement some sort of Two Systems so Hong Kongers and Mainlanders don't go crossing the border willy nilly, not to mention that they need a long transition time to integrate Hong Kong politically and socially.
 
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