Delayed Polish Warsaw Uprising Works

The POD is that the Soviet June 44 summer offensive does less well, the front lines end up settling down 20 miles further east and the Poles don't pull the trigger on their uprising until January 1945.

This time it works, the Germans can't do anything about the uprising, coming right after the Soviets launch their January 1945 offensive and are trying to flee the city.

The home army ends up controlling all of Warsaw, the Government is flown in along with a company of the Polish Parachute Brigade.

Can Poland preserve her independence?
 
If the Polish government-in-exile and exiled Polish forces can make into Poland, then I think Poland has a shot but there might be a Greek-style Polish Civil War if the Soviets attempt to install the Lublin Committee.
 
Polish officials are invited to a meeting with soviet delegation, where they are all arrested, accused of collaboration with Germans, found guilty, and sentenced to death.
 
Polish officials are invited to a meeting with soviet delegation, where they are all arrested, accused of collaboration with Germans, found guilty, and sentenced to death.
From what I have read, the Poles were worried that sort of thing would happen and are not going to let themselves be led off to the forest to be shot this time.

The goal of the uprising is to have a large enough political and military force in Warsaw that any attempt to remove it would be a major effort, and that typical Soviet, Deny-Minimize-Ignore tactics wouldn't work.
 
The goal of the uprising is to have a large enough political and military force in Warsaw that any attempt to remove it would be a major effort, and that typical Soviet, Deny-Minimize-Ignore tactics wouldn't work.
How much territory could the Polish Underground State control if the alt-Warsaw Uprising you describe was successful?
 
How much territory could the Polish Underground State control if the alt-Warsaw Uprising you describe was successful?
It is really only Warsaw, the suburbs, the airports near by, the bridges over the Vistula there. Presumably the government in exile returned would try to establish themselves in other cities that get liberated, but there would be less organization in those places so I don't see it happening.

Perhaps the Soviet play a waiting game, start establishing checkpoints, cut off communication with the city, cut off food and coal after a while, less dramatic things that wouldn't attract attention than a month long assault.
 

Marc

Donor
Any scenario, it's a butchery for the Poles in the end.
To be very honest, my sympathies are very limited - read about the Warsaw Ghetto uprising, and how much help they got...

And exposing freely my bias. My father's people were from Radom - look it up.
He spoke six languages, fluently, but never spoke Polish again after 1941.
 
The POD is that the Soviet June 44 summer offensive does less well, the front lines end up settling down 20 miles further east and the Poles don't pull the trigger on their uprising until January 1945.

This time it works, the Germans can't do anything about the uprising, coming right after the Soviets launch their January 1945 offensive and are trying to flee the city.

The home army ends up controlling all of Warsaw, the Government is flown in along with a company of the Polish Parachute Brigade.

Can Poland preserve her independence?
Roumania didn't preserve their independence in the original timeline, although the Soviets did award King Michael the 'Order of Victory' before they packed him off (via proxies) after the war had ended into exile.
I suspect that if the leaders of Poland managed to help push the Germans out of Warsaw, they'd get a similar 'thank you and now that the war is over goodbye'.
 
The Soviets still install their government, but instead of the uprising being idiocy by foolish reactionary elements it will be a glorious worker's uprising in solidarity with Soviet troops that had greedy reactionaries fly in and try to steal glory.
 
Top