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What if there was no offer of a crown to a hohenzollern prince in Spain so Napoleon III doesn't feel threatened? He avoids war with the North German Confederation and leaves France to his successor. But growing tensions with the NGC forces the new emperor into declaring war in 1886.
Unlike in OTL the French army was going through some reforms which were only completed years later. This time France and Prussia sould be on more equal footing. So who would win in such a conflict?