Well, as one may or may not know the Acapulco-Manila route was a very wealthy endeavor for Spain that affected the nations of the world and saw Spanish expeditions from Mexico establish rule over their East Indies.
I am curious how long that could be delayed.
Simply having Magellan fail in his expedition may delay another attempt for a few years but certainly not by decades or centuries given knowledge that the world was round and how large it was. It would either be due to a string of bad exploration expeditions, unrest in Mexico or at home for the Spanish.
Though, what would be the result?
Spain would have to look toward the Around Africa route longer which would butterfly Legazpi's original expedition to conquer the Philippines which could lead to the Spanish taking different territory. I may lead to explorers deciding to explore the California Coast earlier as interest may spark in a land bridge. Euopean and Chinese/Japanese relations would probably butterfly by a few years as well.