Delay Circumnavigation

Well, as one may or may not know the Acapulco-Manila route was a very wealthy endeavor for Spain that affected the nations of the world and saw Spanish expeditions from Mexico establish rule over their East Indies.

I am curious how long that could be delayed.

Simply having Magellan fail in his expedition may delay another attempt for a few years but certainly not by decades or centuries given knowledge that the world was round and how large it was. It would either be due to a string of bad exploration expeditions, unrest in Mexico or at home for the Spanish.

Though, what would be the result?

Spain would have to look toward the Around Africa route longer which would butterfly Legazpi's original expedition to conquer the Philippines which could lead to the Spanish taking different territory. I may lead to explorers deciding to explore the California Coast earlier as interest may spark in a land bridge. Euopean and Chinese/Japanese relations would probably butterfly by a few years as well.
 
Spain would have to look toward the Around Africa route longer
That was our turf...
If the Spaniards wanted to reach Asia they knew how they could get there, they hired Magellan precisely because they needed to find a westward route to Asia. You know, what Columbus said he did.
 
That was our turf...
If the Spaniards wanted to reach Asia they knew how they could get there, they hired Magellan precisely because they needed to find a westward route to Asia. You know, what Columbus said he did.
I think if Castile is distracted in a war they might not sponsor a circumnavigation.
 
That was our turf...
If the Spaniards wanted to reach Asia they knew how they could get there, they hired Magellan precisely because they needed to find a westward route to Asia. You know, what Columbus said he did.

They knew where Asia was but they didn't know the route, if it was traversable and if there were any more surprises like the American Continent
 
That was our turf...
If the Spaniards wanted to reach Asia they knew how they could get there, they hired Magellan precisely because they needed to find a westward route to Asia. You know, what Columbus said he did.
Yes, Tordesillas treaty.

So... are you giving up on having the Japanese take the Philippines from Spain? :D
 
Yes, Tordesillas treaty.

So... are you giving up on having the Japanese take the Philippines from Spain? :D

No :p

I am reading "1493" and it has got me thinking on possible butterflies of the era. The book attributes several scetions to Manila's importance on the global scale.
 
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No :p

I am reading "1493" and it has got me thinking on possible butterflies of the era. The book attributes several scetions to Manila's importance on the global scale.

Actually, both Manila and Sulu/Jolo are important that is why the Bruneians conquered both.
 
If the Spaniards wanted to reach Asia they knew how they could get there, they hired Magellan precisely because they needed to find a westward route to Asia.

They knew where Asia was but they didn't know the route, if it was traversable and if there were any more surprises like the American Continent

Bad English on my part, sorry. I meant that if the Spaniards wanted to go to Asia they knew that the only way they could get there was through traveling westwards since the Portuguese had dibs on the Cape Route.
 

katchen

Banned
It would have only been a matter of time. Maybe ten or fifteen years. If Magellan had not made his expedition around the Southern tip of South America, someone would have most likely built a ship or flotilla of ships at one of the Mexican harbors and sailed west.
From Mexico, whoever might not have reached the Philippines, though. They might have reached Taiwan or the Ryukyus or Japan--or Fujian or Zejiang or Kuangchou instead, maybe discovering Hawaii along the way
. That would butterfly Spanish conquest in a very different direction. Obviously the Spanish could not conquer Japan. Taiwan or Okinawa would not be a problem. But Okinawa would be uncomfortably (for the Japanese) close to Japan.

Or the Spanish launch an expedition off Peru. They discover Pacific islands like the Marqueass or Tahiti or Samoa. Maybe they get stopped by the Great Barrier Reef. Maybe they sail far enough south to reach the Australian coast before veering north to reach the Cook Islands. Then they have to find their way back. Maybe they figure out that the way to do that is to circumnavigate Australia, not the Earth, to get back to Chile and Peru via the Southern Westerlies. We just butterflied in a Spanish discovery, mapping and maybe settlement of Australia.

Or we butterfly a sooner Pacific crossing. Vasco Nunez de Balboa is in trouble with creditors. Rather than get taken back from the Isthmus of Panama after discovering the Pacific Ocean in 1510 in chains, he sails up the Atrato River. He dosen't find any gold (although there is gold there) but he does discover the Respedura Canal, a natural but shallow 7 mile canal to the San Juan River and the Pacific Ocean. Balboa either builds a makeshift dam, enough to float his ship through the Respedura Ravine once the rainy season begins, or partially dismantles and reassembles his ship on the other side of the portage, sails down the San Juan into the Pacific and across ,discovering New Guine, reaching the Spice Islands a few years BEFORE the Portuguese and establishing trading links with the Sultan of Tidore and coming home to Spain with a ship of pepper to settle his debts.
The Philippines again get completely ignored.
 
Bad English on my part, sorry. I meant that if the Spaniards wanted to go to Asia they knew that the only way they could get there was through traveling westwards since the Portuguese had dibs on the Cape Route.

Iberian Union and te Treaty of Tord. was more of a vague set of ...guidelines.
 
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