Paul V McNutt
Banned
Terry Gross had the guy who wrote Day of the Jackal on today. It made me wonder what would have happened if the Jackal or somebody else had killed him.
DeGaulle assassinated
- Thread starter Paul V McNutt
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Deleted member 1487
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean_Bastien-Thiry
This was very, very close to succeeding. Have that bullet hit de Gaulle in the head and you've got your assassination. Not sure what would happen though, I don't know much about French politics of the time, but I imagine there would be a crackdown on support for groups that were angry about Algeria.
Japhy
Banned
You are aware that the Jackal was a fictional character and the book itself, sans the existence of the OAS and the attempt written at the start of the book by them is a work of fiction, correct?
The goal of the OAS in killing DeGaulle was to trigger, in their semi-fantastical thinking, a military coup that would install a government committed to the retention of Algeria. In fact, given that the Fifth Republic was only 4 years old at the time of Petit Clamart and that there was no clear-cut mechanism for succession to the Presidency, the result of a successful attack at Petit Clamart would at best been utter chaos and at worst a civil war. Consider that there would have been at least three factions; a Socialist/Communist left committed to Algerian independence, a hard-line imperialist right committed to retaining Algeria,and a motley amalgamation of Gaullists and traditional centralists ("Radicals") more or less committed to the status quo. The result would not have been pretty, and in fact may well have turned in to the bloodiest scene in Europe between WWII and the dissolution of Yugolavia, although in this case the battle lines would be based on ideology and not ethnicity. DeGaulle was the Fifth Republic at that time, remove him and the abyss avoided in 1958 by recalling him now beckons. I venture no guesses on the outcome, but these are Mothra-sized butterflies for the development of NATO, the Common Market,and Europe.
Stolengood
Banned
I'm more surprised that Frederick Forsyth is still alive, although I suppose I would've heard the death announcement were he deceased.
Great book, Day of the Jackal. Clancy before Clancy in its plausibility; the little details that make it feel real, even if the events are, well, a bit out-there. Marvelous little number.
Operation Charlotte Corday took place in August 1962, two months before the Cuban Missile Crisis, and four months before General de Gaulle vetoed the United Kingdom's EEC application. So already two momentous changes if that bullet moves one inch.
Domestically, De Gaulle assassinated at Petit Clamart means a very different Fifth Republic.
Very likely yes, since France never left NATO OTL and it's unlikely De Gaulle being killed changes that.
If you mean France stays part of Nato's integrated military command, then the answer is a definite NO. France leaving this organisation is a direct consequence of the US attitude during the Suez crisis in 1956 and the PoD is after that.
Probably not. At the time the CAP was being negotiated and Britain was seen as (rightly) a menace to the development of the system, even more anti-British Gaullists (like Pompidou) would not have wanted such an early British entry until the system was fully established, favouring France of course.
Without de Gaulle, it's possible that the MRP never becomes a non-entity. This could be huge because De Gaulle was not all that in favour of supranational structures, against most of political elites of the Quatrième République's consensus.
For more info, check "Using Europe, Abusing the Europeans: Britain and European Integration, 1945-63" on the motivations for the British to join.
Archibald
Banned
It is all a matter of BALLS. Don't know if Pompidou or someone else would have had the BALLS to slam the door like De Gaulle did.
Whatever, if De Gaulle got killed earlier on AND if Pompidou takes over, then we have a much more liberal France early on and thus no Mai 68 backlash (Pompidou was a man of his times, parading in Saint Tropez among stars before he entered serious politics)
Interestingly, if De Gaulle bite the bullet France will have a black president 45 years before USA got Obama. President of the Senate was Gaston Monnerville.
He's not that old, only just turned 75 in August.
Aside from his fiction you do have to respect his stance on Biafra and reporting of the conflict.
The far right may be able to kill De Gaulle but it simply does not have enough support to seize power for very long. See
http://groups.google.com/groups?selm=8E6ACF200dtennerameritechnet@news.mil.ameritech.net
for my take on the likely outcome: no civil war, no Communist takeover, a quick collapse of the coup.
France in 1961 is not like Spain in 1936; the government that is being targeted is one of the center-right, not the left; and nobody who tries to remove it by violence can count on sympathy either from most French mainstream politicians or from NATO. The Communists would be very cautious, as they were during World War II--and were to be in 1968. The CGT would of course call a general strike and the Communists would make much of their role in the resistance to the coup, but they would know that any attempt to seize power in a country like France--where they had no influence in the armed forces, where the country was part of NATO, and where the Red Army certainly couldn't help--would be futile. They would support the "patriotic" soldiers who put down the coup and restored constitutional government. They would hope nevertheless that public revulsion against the extreme right, and their own creation of an image of themselves as "leaders of the new Resistance, just as during the Occupation" would help them in the next election. (Indeed, it would, but not nearly enough to put the PCF into power.) The Fifth Republic was new, yes; but the great majority of the population would still favor maintaining "republican legality" under that Republic's laws to civil war.