Defensive strategy after Stalingrad

Animefan

Banned
After the catastrophy of Stalingrad Hitler is so shaken that he gives his generals free hand in the defence of the Eastern Front.

The construction of the Panther-Wotan line begins allready in Mai 1943.
At the same time the Germans build formidable defences around the Kursk salient.

There will be no more German attacks but a purely defensive strategy on the Eastern front. No more stand and die orders but a flexible defence.

Would this be enough to save eastern Germany, Czechoslovakia and Hungary from communism? Would this tactic slow the Soviets down so much that American/British forces could reach/occupy these countries sooner than the Russians?

Could even Poland and Romania/Bulgaria be reaches by the Western Allies before the Soviets or is this ASB?

Im assuming here that the Soviet advance is slowed down enough so that Roosevelt/Churchill dont agree to hand Eastern Europe to Stalin at Jalta. (At least not all of it)
 
A flexible defense is more or less impossible on the Eastern Front because the Soviets have the forces to constantly shift reserves around to areas of the German frontline that are weak. The Germans will have to shift and commit their own reserves to plug the breaches, but the Germans don't have nearly enough armored reserves to halt every single Soviet attack. Soviet forces will make massive gains, encircle some Germans, and overrun the Panther-Wotan Line before it can be manned.
 
the panther wotan line was too long to possibly hold in the long run anyway; the closest place they could build a line and get more favorable force to space ratios is the 1941 border

flexible defense as Julian said won't work, too much Russian strength in too many places. Even if certain spearheads are defeated, the Germans simply won't be able to mass enough forces in every threatened sector to avoid breakthrough

Guderian and Rommel suggested stand and die (heavily fortifying the line they where on, and then building more just a few miles to the rear) and they where probably right in that would be the most effective strategy

In May 1943 Germany had some outside chance of repeating operation mars on a fairly wide scale, they where never going to repeat third kharkov
 
I have my doubts as to how effective this would be. By 1943, the Germans had lost their superiority in operations. They were being routinely deceived by maskirovka, and the Red Army had greatly increased its ability to command their troops thanks to Lend Lease radio and communications equipment. So much depends on individual decisions in the next 2 years that one can't predict with much accuracy what exactly will happen. But for the sake of argument, let's say the moves buy the Germans an extra 6 months. I think people could convincingly argue for no substantial delay to up to a year.

Historically, these are the dates when the Red Army entered Central European countries.

Czechoslovakia (January 1945, Prague taken May 1945). Pushed back to June 1945 with Prague falling in November 1945.

Hungary (September 1944, but Budapest not taken until February 1945). Pushed back to March 1945 with Budapest falling August 1945.

Poland (July 1944, Warsaw taken January 1945, Oder reached February 1945). Pushed back to January 1945, Warsaw taken in June 1945, Oder reached September 1945.

Romania (September 1944 - Romania defect to the Allies, Red Army occupies). Pushed back to March 1945.

Bulgaria (September 1944 - Bulgaria defects to the Allies, Red Army occupies). Pushed back to March 1945.

If everything goes the same for the Western Allies, they will end 1944 the same way they did IOTL. 1945 will be different because the Germans have more strategic mobility. The real difference will come to the actions of the Axis satellites. They desperately want out of the war, but don't want Red Army troops over them. They will attempt to hold out as long as possible until the Western Allies arrive, and won't defect early if possible. In addition, the Polish government in exile won't launch the Warsaw Uprising until Soviet troops are near Warsaw.

The Western Allies will likely not resume the offensive until Spring 1945. The Soviets will keep pushing since they are use to winter warfare and aren't facing as formidable natural barriers like the Rhine or Appenines.

Yalta Conference still happens, although perhaps not at Yalta, but at some other resort town on the Black Sea. Probably everything agreed IOTL is still agreed to. What will matter is the where everyone's troops stop.

So the Soviets begin entering Poland in January 1945 with a strong winter offensive. In March 1945, the Western Allies cross the Rhine at the same time the Red Army reaches Hungary and Romania. Both continue to fight, but the governments of Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria indicate they are willing to surrender provided the Red Army does not occupy them - they want to surrender to the Western Allies. The West likely tells them that they have to surrender to whoever is there, so for now they keep fighting, hoping the strategic situation changes.

Allied offensive in Italy begins in April 1945. The US reaches the Elbe in May 1945. With Hitler still alive and Berlin being defended, fighting continues to be hard. Looking to avoid as much US casualties as possible (knowing that Japan must still be attacked), Eisenhower likely only cautiously advances towards Berlin, stopping once defenses become hard. Instead, he hopes to link up with the Allied armies in Italy and meet up with the Soviets on the Danube for a combined offensive to take Berlin.

In May 1945, Western Allied forces push into Czechoslovakia, Austria, and northern Yugoslavia. By June 1945, American forces reach Prague and Budapest. Hungary surrenders with the western half occupied by the American and eastern half by the Red Army.

Depending on how effective Romania and Bulgaria have fought, they are either all occupied now, or at least Romania taken. In any case, once Hungary surrenders, both of them likely surrender as well. Most likely the Red Army still occupies them. However, if the British are able to divert a small force into Greece, it's possible the British can save Bulgaria. Tito is still in effective control of Yugoslavia.

Around July 1945, the Red Army likely reaches Warsaw, and the Polish government in exile authorizes a Rising that liberates the city just before the Red Army arrives, the Polish government flies into the city. Maybe the Americans even reach Krakow. The Red Army moves across Poland.

By August 1945, a combined Allied offensive is planned to take Berlin. President Truman informs Stalin of the atomic bomb, and its tactical use is planned to take Berlin. A final announcement is made asking for Germany's surrender. Hitler refuses. The bomb is dropped somewhere (likely not on Berlin itself so that some authority can surrender the entire country. The bomb vaporizes a hole in the German line, allowing Allied or Soviet troops to pour in. Many of those poor troops will die horribly from raditation poisoning several years later. Given the show of the atomic bomb, various Nazis decide to take control of the government and "negotiate" a surrender. Hitler commits suicide. Goering and Himmler are unable to negotiate anything, but agree to surrender since everything is hopeless.

So what is the strategic situation postwar, and how does it effect the Cold War?

The West is not really in a good position. The Central European countries they liberated are still separated from the Western Democracies. Yugoslavia is Communist under Tito. A Communist backed government is in place in Romania and likely Bulgaria. Hungary, possibly, is allowed to return to its internal affairs, but with a very heavy Finlandized policy. The Czechoslovakian government in exile returns to power as it did IOTL. Just as in IOTL, it sees the Soviet Union as its only real guarantor of its independence. It is the only country in central Europe where Communist party enjoys substantial popularity in democratic elections, and Communists are part of the coalition government. Germany and Austria are divided into occupation zones as in our timeline.

American troops likely leave Czecoslovakia, Hungary, and any other area they are in as soon as possible. The Soviet Union likely withdraws from Czechoslovakia and Hungary as well, happy that their foreign policies like Finland has to be pro-Soviet even if they are not Communist internally.

Soviet troops remain in Romania for the time being, until official peace treaty with Romania is signed. Depending on how Bulgaria ended the war, a similar situation may exist. Soviet manipulation of the governments of those countries will draw increasing protests from the West, but it won't come to a head for a long time. Stalin likely controls the Balkans.

The headache is Poland. Red Army troops are all over the place. Furthermore, the Soviets need access in Poland to keep supply routes to its occupation forces in Germany. They cannot withdraw there. Like Czechoslovakia, the government in exile has returned. Unlike Czechoslovakia, the Poles are not as friendly to the Soviets. Much of the initial postwar politics between the Western Allies and Soviet Union are what to do about Poland. Frankly, I can't foresee what will happen. Many things are potentially plausible.

Big changes in the Pacific Theatre too, as the Japanese know of the atomic bombing in Germany. Red Army won't attack Manchuria until December 1945 at earliest. Nationalist Chinese, now with a large force of well supplied troops liberate most of China south of the Yangtze itself in August/September 1945. Japan may surrender before the Red Army can even attack them.
 
Im assuming here that the Soviet advance is slowed down enough so that Roosevelt/Churchill dont agree to hand Eastern Europe to Stalin at Jalta. (At least not all of it)

Just an aside, while this is the popular understanding of Yalta, this is not the truth. FDR did not "hand" anything over to Stalin. Stalin, in principle, agreed that the countries he occupied would have self determination after the war. Stalin broke his promises at Yalta.

One could argue that FDR should have anticipated that, and somehow bargained stronger. However, FDR had no bargaining power because he had no control over what happened in areas occupied by the Red Army. Unless FDR was willing to go to war against the Soviet Union, he or any other US politician, would not be able to do anything about that.
 

Hyperion

Banned
Giving the generals a free hand is a good idea but only goes so far. Their best bet in the east would be, as others have said, fall back to the 1941 border and then build up there as best as possible.

To make a major difference that would slow the Soviets and possibly give the western allies more ground, I would suggest butterflies in the western front.

After Sicily, Hitler realizes Italy is a lost cause, and orders troops to fall back to the Alps, after wrecking everything they can. The US and British would be ripped to pieces trying to pass through the Alps, and that would shorten the supply lines for defending troops by hundreds of miles. This might allow a few extra divisions thrown around France, which would be bad come 1944 and D-Day. This might also allow the Germans to temporarily have divisions available for the eastern front. Half a dozen divisions sent to Italy in OTL go to Poland or somewhere and fight.
 
Top