Defense of the Constitution: The Poles fight on.

I've been reading up on the period, and I've got a crazy idea in my head. What if the Poles fought on? Could they have fought the Russians to a draw? Maybe even won? Lets say King Stanisław II August Poniatowski decided to fight on? Could Kościuszko and Poniatowski pull it off?

Now going down that road, bear with me now, if the Russians are beaten and no one gets involved on the side of Russia, which I doubt. I assume Prussia or Austria would not let such reform occur in Poland, and if the Poles are beating the Russians I assume they would stab Poland in the back in order to kill the Polish attempts at reform in its cradle. Now this assumes the King of Poland dismisses the advisors that pushed to join the Confederacy which killed the revolution.

So we go with the idea that Kościuszko and Poniatowski crush the Russian armies in some massive battle in which they destroy or rout the majority of Russian forces in Poland and the war goes on. What happens to Poland? Do Prussia and Austia join the Russians or do they sit back and let the Polish and Russians maul one another?

I'm sorry for the erratic post I'm in alot of pain right now and I can't sleep because my joints and muscles hurt so much. Post your ideas if your interested in the concept. I honestly think Poland doesn't get enough positive attention on this board.
 
I've been reading up on the period, and I've got a crazy idea in my head. What if the Poles fought on? Could they have fought the Russians to a draw? Maybe even won? Lets say King Stanisław II August Poniatowski decided to fight on? Could Kościuszko and Poniatowski pull it off?
Sorry, but it would be next to impossible (IMHO).
Firstly, Russia had advantage in manpower, but it could be neutralized with levee en masse, and Kosciuszko did it later (despite some landowners' resistance to the draft of their serfs).
Secondly, Russian army of the time was highly professional (25-year service for all ranks, remember?), and the Polish soldiers after mobilization were mostly raw recruits (in the case of peasants) or amateurish fencers (in the case of szlachta). Before the mobilization they were well-trained, but too small in number.
Thirdly, the Poles were severely underarmed (Kosynierzy are good example).

To deal with all those challenges, you'd need successful military modernization programme. The King and the Diet embarked on such programme, but it was far from completion when the Russians attacked. Naturally, Catherine II was not in the mood to allow the Commonwealth to strengthen its armed forces...
 
The best bet to keep Austria and Prussia off Poland's back would imo be a sudden flare of aggression from Revolutionary France.

I'm not sure if it would help if Holy Roman Emperor Leopold II lived longer. He himself attempted to push a similar constitution during his time in Tuscany (so wouldn't object against a reform on divine principles or something similar) and might see Polish resistance to Russia in his interest.
But then, this would create a whole lot of different butterflies.
 
I've been reading up on the period, and I've got a crazy idea in my head. What if the Poles fought on? Could they have fought the Russians to a draw? Maybe even won? Lets say King Stanisław II August Poniatowski decided to fight on? Could Kościuszko and Poniatowski pull it off?

Now going down that road, bear with me now, if the Russians are beaten and no one gets involved on the side of Russia, which I doubt. I assume Prussia or Austria would not let such reform occur in Poland, and if the Poles are beating the Russians I assume they would stab Poland in the back in order to kill the Polish attempts at reform in its cradle. Now this assumes the King of Poland dismisses the advisors that pushed to join the Confederacy which killed the revolution.

So we go with the idea that Kościuszko and Poniatowski crush the Russian armies in some massive battle in which they destroy or rout the majority of Russian forces in Poland and the war goes on. What happens to Poland? Do Prussia and Austia join the Russians or do they sit back and let the Polish and Russians maul one another?

I'm sorry for the erratic post I'm in alot of pain right now and I can't sleep because my joints and muscles hurt so much. Post your ideas if your interested in the concept. I honestly think Poland doesn't get enough positive attention on this board.
Well, Prussia actually did, what you assume. Poniatowski had to have different personality for what you are requiring from him.
 
Not entirely sure of the timeline here, but I wouldn't be totally surprised if Prussia/Austria would welcome a sort of buffer state between themselves and Russia.

That ignores the 'reforms' you mentioned, though, so I am at a loss. But buffer states have a tendency to sway diplomatic points, if placed in the right spot.
 
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